Wildcard Stinkers

Michelangelo · Dec 29, 2014

Just tabulated my regular season plays.

9-8 Winning Weeks
89-88-4 All Plays
37-41 Favs
41-41 Dogs
5-2 Overs
6-4 Unders

A juice eating regular season. Believe it or not, I'm OK with that. Certainly would prefer to win. But this is my hobby, and I like the research and hanging with you guys who share my interest. I try to post what I research. Maybe some of what I post is helpful to someone. Maybe. If I cost anyone, I apologize. I do my best to honestly handicap these games.

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On to the Wildcard.

I like these lines so I'm getting in early. If I should research anything that alters my view I'll post it or buy back if necessary.

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Arizona +5' -102 (@ Carolina)
Dallas -7 -102 (vs Detroit)
Cincinnatti +4 -106 (@ Indy)

Michelangelo · Jan 1, 2015

OK. Let's try to put some substance behind those picks.

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Arizona +5'

I blew it by taking this line early. Now up to +6'.

Don't understand this line at all.

So Carolina won four straight. Three of those games were in their Division, maybe the worst Division in the History of the NFL - all teams had losing records. And the fourth was a home squeaker vs another losing team, Cleveland.

Contrast that to Arizona who had an 11-5 record in a Division that included last year's SB winner, Seattle, and the other team in last year's NFC Championship game, San Fran, and an up and coming St Louis team who would likely be favored over Carolina at a neutral site.

Arizona was 7-3 ATS as puppies; 5-3 ATS on the road.
Carolina was 2-3 ATS as favs; 4-4 ATS at home. The only two times they more than a fg fav they blew ATS both times. Both of those games were in December, by the way.

As for Ryan Lindley, in his 7th NFL start he was finally able to throw his first TD, two actually, while losing on the road last week in San Francisco, 17-20. What he must overcome is the 13 turnovers he has had in those 7 starts. I think he can against an overrated Carolina team.

Michelangelo · Jan 3, 2015

May be buying back my Dallas bet tomorrow. Just did a little study. Not sure yet.

If you want to beat Dallas you need to be able to pressure Romo. Over the past two years 11 teams were able to sack Romo 3 or more times. Dallas record in those games was 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS. But when Dallas was favored their record was 1-4 SU; 0-5 ATS.

Still thinking.