Why Week 1 College Football is Basura

GoForIt · Aug 13, 2009

----Not enough lined games unless your book does outlaw lines

----I haven't seen these teams play in several months, can you really learn alot from spring games and summer hype

-----I'd rather have the public overreact to recent week 1 results to create some line value on teams for week 2 or find some teams under the radar that won impressively in week 1, some teams get more hype than others

------Have you seen Joe Cox play? Neither have I. Oh wait. I saw him come into a game that was already over a few years ago. How do you get a read on that?

daboyzinblue · Aug 13, 2009

F-I-L-L-I-P-I-N-O in the house!@)

russ1945 · Aug 13, 2009

Go For It said:
----Not enough lined games unless your book does outlaw lines

----I haven't seen these teams play in several months, can you really learn alot from spring games and summer hype

-----I'd rather have the public overreact to recent week 1 results to create some line value on teams for week 2 or find some teams under the radar that won impressively in week 1, some teams get more hype than others

------Have you seen Joe Cox play? Neither have I. Oh wait. I saw him come into a game that was already over a few years ago. How do you get a read on that?

Sounds like someone has not done their homework.

BigdaddyQH · Aug 13, 2009

I agree. Week 1 gives you some of the best lines you will find this year. The complaint about not having enough lined games is rediculous. ThIf you can't find a couple of winners from 40 games, you are in the wrong business. There are 40 lined games.

While you have not seen these teams play for several months, neither has anyone else, most importantly, the linesmakers. Advantage player.

You really put way too much weight on the public. What you obviously do not realize is that it does not matter what the public does. Where the money is going is what counts. A cartel may wager more on a single team than hundreds of gamblers added up. Do you really think that your $100.00 wager is going to match up against their wagers, which often run into 5 figures?

Week 1 offered the best lines that you are going to see this year. The deeper we get into the season, the tighter the lines become. I think that the arguments against wagering on week one do not hold water.

SoonerBS · Aug 13, 2009

russ1945 said:
Sounds like someone has not done their homework.

I agree.

5-0SAT · Aug 13, 2009

week 1-3 ..... easiest to beat the book, not the other way around :think2:

fivestarjake · Aug 13, 2009

i think people put too much perception in the lines get "tighter" as the season progresses. most of the time the pointspread doesn't factor into many games.

20ptdog · Aug 13, 2009

This is you after 1200 posts here?

Go For It said:
----Not enough lined games unless your book does outlaw lines

----I haven't seen these teams play in several months, can you really learn alot from spring games and summer hype

-----I'd rather have the public overreact to recent week 1 results to create some line value on teams for week 2 or find some teams under the radar that won impressively in week 1, some teams get more hype than others

------Have you seen Joe Cox play? Neither have I. Oh wait. I saw him come into a game that was already over a few years ago. How do you get a read on that?

:think2:

Delta00 · Aug 13, 2009

BigdaddyQH said:
I agree. Week 1 gives you some of the best lines you will find this year. The complaint about not having enough lined games is rediculous. ThIf you can't find a couple of winners from 40 games, you are in the wrong business. There are 40 lined games.

While you have not seen these teams play for several months, neither has anyone else, most importantly, the linesmakers. Advantage player.

You really put way too much weight on the public. What you obviously do not realize is that it does not matter what the public does. Where the money is going is what counts. A cartel may wager more on a single team than hundreds of gamblers added up. Do you really think that your $100.00 wager is going to match up against their wagers, which often run into 5 figures?

Week 1 offered the best lines that you are going to see this year. The deeper we get into the season, the tighter the lines become. I think that the arguments against wagering on week one do not hold water.

Agreed on Week 1 being the best. It's all slowly downhill from here

Delta00 · Aug 13, 2009

Go For It said:
----Not enough lined games unless your book does outlaw lines

----I haven't seen these teams play in several months, can you really learn alot from spring games and summer hype

-----I'd rather have the public overreact to recent week 1 results to create some line value on teams for week 2 or find some teams under the radar that won impressively in week 1, some teams get more hype than others

------Have you seen Joe Cox play? Neither have I. Oh wait. I saw him come into a game that was already over a few years ago. How do you get a read on that?

I watcehd the UGA spring game, did you?

GoForIt · Aug 13, 2009

easiest to beat in Weeks 1-3???? homework??? So some of you guys are like Colin Cowherd?? Early speed, but are finished by mid-season?---------It is a marathon, not a sprint
----it only seems easy early because people jump on huge favorites and look for mismatches, people get hooked on the chalk early in the season and then are afraid to jump on some live dogs (especially when conference play is more common in early October)
Week 1 is not my cup of tea. BOL to you all though. Week 2 is when the real season starts.

GoForIt · Aug 13, 2009

Delta00 said:
I watcehd the UGA spring game, did you?

Uhh, No. And I live in Georgia. :laugh:

, but in the A-T-L (not Athens)

Let me guess Willie Martinez is still there??????? They have been calling for his head the last year.

YourAllAmerican · Aug 13, 2009

I like betting the early few weeks of the college season, but it really is a different sort of handicapping than is used for the last 75 percent or so of the season. Teams with not much returning experience, especially on the offensive line, make me lean toward going against them. Coaches with a reputation for bullying weak opponents in the warmup games make me lean toward betting them even with large spreads.

russ1945 · Aug 13, 2009

fivestarjake said:
i think people put too much perception in the lines get "tighter" as the season progresses. most of the time the pointspread doesn't factor into many games.

I just did a breakdown on week one 2008. 10 teams that were getting an avg of 8.05 points ATS won outright by an avg of 10.6ppg. I would say the line had little or nothing to do with those just for starters. I would say at this point of the season that if the lines are overwhelming you then do not bet. If you have done your homework you are ready to fire. Do not rely on the polls and do not bet just to be betting.

YourAllAmerican · Aug 13, 2009

fivestarjake said:
most of the time the pointspread doesn't factor into many games.

You know, it seems to matter a little more than we often think it does. I just ran a quick scan of IA vs. IA games in the 2004-2008 seasons and it looks like among favorites that won, about 32% of the time they lost ATS.

The results: http://tinyurl.com/l9wwfg

I just did that very fast, though. I haven't doublechecked anything and it doesn't at all take into account the size of the line.

TOOTIGHT · Aug 13, 2009

I am a huge fan of the week one lines because it's very tough for Vegas to put an accurate line on teams that get dominated in the trenches. Focus on the O-line and D-line mis-matches in week one and you can find some winners. Aside from that there are plenty of more angles to figure out that won't be around later in the season.

GoForIt · Aug 13, 2009

YourAllAmerican said:
I like betting the early few weeks of the college season, but it really is a different sort of handicapping than is used for the last 75 percent or so of the season. Teams with not much returning experience, especially on the offensive line, make me lean toward going against them. Coaches with a reputation for bullying weak opponents in the warmup games make me lean toward betting them even with large spreads.

Back in the 90's and the early part of this century I would try to find who Bill Snyder and Kansas State were playing early on in the season. He was a great bully coach for many years. In typical Snyder fashion he scheduled a I-AA to open up his second tenure. I don't know if Snyder can rebuild K-State's defense that quick though to be a bully this year. Snyder's bread and butter was defense and Ron Prince ruined that reputation. This was a team that gave up over 50 points in the 1st half to Oklahoma last year. The last time Kansas State had a great defense they won the Big 12 Championship (2003). Of course, having Sproles and Roberson on offense didn't hurt either.

TOOTIGHT · Aug 13, 2009

Looking back at some bully teams the past 4 or 5 seasons what programs do you guys think are the best and worst at covering large spreads in week one - three?

IMO and no certain order:

Best
-Penn St.
-Texas
-Oklahoma

Worst
-Wisconsin
-Michigan
-Notre Dame

YourAllAmerican · Aug 13, 2009

TOOTIGHT said:
Looking back at some bully teams the past 4 or 5 seasons what programs do you guys think are the best and worst at covering large spreads in week one - three?

That's really a good question. Without looking up any stats, I'd definitely put Texas and OU on the list, maybe Missouri. Urban Meyer is also a good bully coach for betting on.

I'll see if I can piece together any research on specific teams in, say, weeks 1-4 against spreads of, say, more than 21 points.