[h=1]Why UCF will remain a contender[/h][h=3]A strong recruiting class and returning starters on defense help UCF[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The state of Florida has some history with college programs climbing the football ranking mountain, as the Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes each rose from relative obscurity to national prominence in the 1970s and 1980s.
A third Sunshine State team could be on the verge of making that same type of ascension. The UCF Knights have posted three seasons of double-digit wins in the past four years and ended the 2013 campaign with an impressive 52-42 win over the Big 12 champion Baylor Bears in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.
But there are question marks about whether the Knights can replicate this performance in 2014 and beyond because they are losing two star offensive players, quarterback Blake Bortles and running back Storm Johnson, to the NFL draft.
While those departures are notable, after reviewing the game tapes, metrics and scouting notes, it becomes clear that won't stop UCF's progression into national prominence.
Let's take a look at why UCF will remain a contender.
Tough defense
The Knights' strongest 2014 prospects look to be on the defensive side of the ball, as they return nine starters, tied for sixth-highest in the FBS.
This group was superb against the run last season, as UCF gave up only 122.46 rushing yards per game, ranking 16th in the FBS.
As impressive as that number is, this unit's set of highlight performances last season may have come in its four games against teams from the BCS power conferences. In those contests (at Penn State, vs. South Carolina, at Louisville and vs. Baylor), the Knights allowed an Adjusted Total QBR of 51.1 (this metric adjusts Raw QBR by the strength of opponent, with a mark of 50 considered an average performance).
Part of this was the play of starting cornerbacks Jordan Ozerities and Jacoby Glenn. Ozerities allowed only 5.1 yards per attempt (YPA) on 15 targets in those matchups and gave up only 5.0 YPA on vertical passes (those thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Glenn matched Ozerities' 5.1 overall YPA and bested him in vertical YPA by allowing a meager 3.3 YPA on 13 vertical targets.
The Knights' secondary also will benefit from the return of second-team All-American conference safety Clayton Geathers and leading interceptor Brandon Alexander. All totaled, UCF brings back 70 of its 77 pass breakups (defined as interceptions plus passes defensed) from last season.
High-motor linebacker Terrance Plummer highlights the linebacking corps. His 2013 season included a hustle play against South Carolina where he fought off a double-team block to pursue a scrambling Connor Shaw to get a big hit and force a fumble that the Knights recovered. This type of effort helped lead Plummer to rack up a team-high 110 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 6 pass breakups.
The Knights may not have a lot of star power on their defensive line, but that group does return four starters and is a prime factor in why the team brings back 26 of its 29 sacks from 2013.
Deceptively talented offense
The departure of Bortles leaves a potentially large hole in UCF's offense, but the Knights do have three talented prospects lined up to take his place.
ESPN Recruiting Nation's scouting report on sophomore Justin Holman indicates he "flashes a live arm, has deceptive downfield arm strength ... and fits his passes into tight windows." True freshman Tyler Harris was an ESPN 300 prospect who picked UCF over early offers from Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State and SMU. He was a four-star prospect who ranked as the No. 12 pocket passing quarterback. He enrolled at UCF in January and should be ready to compete for the starting job this spring. And redshirt freshman Pete DiNovo has been with the program for a year and has a background working in a pro-style offense.
"We pride ourselves on operating a multiple offense and doing all we can to push the ball downfield, but we also want to make the defense have to cover the entire field both horizontally and vertically," assistant head coach of offense/offensive line coach/recruiting coordinator Brent Key said, when asked how the team plans on handling the transition to a new quarterback. "This approach should help us find ways to get the ball into the hands of our skill position players and take as much pressure as we can off of these young quarterbacks."
In other words, you have the combination of good competition among promising talent, and a system that is designed to create wide gaps to throw into, something Bortles certainly enjoyed.
These passers will certainly have a lot of veteran talent at those skill positions, as the Knights bring back four of their top five wideouts, including the team's leader in receptions (Rannell Hall, 57), receiving touchdowns (J.J. Worton, 7) and YPA (Breshad Perriman, 12.9). UCF also returns its starting tight end (Justin Tukes), as well as two backup tight ends who have logged significant playing time the past two years (Kevin Miller and Joseph Puopolo).
The Knights have only one upperclassman running back in Cedric Thompson, (18 career rushing attempts) but they have a strong talent in second-team All-American conference running back William Stanback. Last season, Stanback rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.3 percent of his attempts, a mark that was close to what Johnson posted (14.6 percent).
Key had especially high praise for offensive lineman Joey Grant, saying, "He is an incredibly hard worker both in the weight room and the tape room."
Grant's leadership will be a key component in getting this group to jell quickly this offseason.
Intact special teams
UCF brings back its starting kick returner (Hall), punt returner (Worton), placekicker (Shawn Moffitt, who hit 91.3 percent of his field goals last season), kickoff specialist (Sean Galvin), punter (Caleb Houston) and long snapper (Scott Teal). This group helped lead the Knights to top three finishes in the American in three of the four special teams Expected Points Added categories (which measure the overall impact of special teams plays based on a variety of factors such as field position, time on the game clock, score at the time of the play, etc.).
Upward trend in recruiting
The long-term future of this program is being built via strong recruiting. UCF made the ESPN RecruitingNation list of the top five biggest climbers in the 2014 recruiting class and likely could have rated even higher (No. 52 in the ESPN 2014 recruiting class rankings), but the Knights had only 17 commitment spots available, in part due to losing only seven scholarship seniors. Only four teams inside the top 50 had as few or fewer commitment spots available, so a similar future performance on the recruiting trail could move the Knights into a much higher ranking once they have room to sign 20 or more players.
Favorable schedule
A key to repeating the offseason signing success is for UCF to post another double-digit win campaign. This won't be easy, as the Knights will open the season against Penn State in a game in Dublin and follow that two weeks later with a contest at defending SEC East champion Missouri. These daunting tasks are somewhat offset by the fact that UCF did beat the Nittany Lions in 2013, and the Tigers return only nine starters from last season's squad, so getting victories in one or two of these games isn't out of the question.
The American schedule should be easier now that Louisville has departed for the ACC, so a 7-1 or 8-0 conference finish is certainly an achievable goal.
Add the above results to wins over BYU and/or a bowl game and it would allow this program to once again post 10 wins. If the Knights do that, it should have a positive domino effect that would allow UCF to continue its recruiting success and maintain its program's upward trajectory.
The state of Florida has some history with college programs climbing the football ranking mountain, as the Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes each rose from relative obscurity to national prominence in the 1970s and 1980s.
A third Sunshine State team could be on the verge of making that same type of ascension. The UCF Knights have posted three seasons of double-digit wins in the past four years and ended the 2013 campaign with an impressive 52-42 win over the Big 12 champion Baylor Bears in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.
But there are question marks about whether the Knights can replicate this performance in 2014 and beyond because they are losing two star offensive players, quarterback Blake Bortles and running back Storm Johnson, to the NFL draft.
While those departures are notable, after reviewing the game tapes, metrics and scouting notes, it becomes clear that won't stop UCF's progression into national prominence.
Let's take a look at why UCF will remain a contender.
Tough defense
The Knights' strongest 2014 prospects look to be on the defensive side of the ball, as they return nine starters, tied for sixth-highest in the FBS.
This group was superb against the run last season, as UCF gave up only 122.46 rushing yards per game, ranking 16th in the FBS.
As impressive as that number is, this unit's set of highlight performances last season may have come in its four games against teams from the BCS power conferences. In those contests (at Penn State, vs. South Carolina, at Louisville and vs. Baylor), the Knights allowed an Adjusted Total QBR of 51.1 (this metric adjusts Raw QBR by the strength of opponent, with a mark of 50 considered an average performance).
Part of this was the play of starting cornerbacks Jordan Ozerities and Jacoby Glenn. Ozerities allowed only 5.1 yards per attempt (YPA) on 15 targets in those matchups and gave up only 5.0 YPA on vertical passes (those thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Glenn matched Ozerities' 5.1 overall YPA and bested him in vertical YPA by allowing a meager 3.3 YPA on 13 vertical targets.
The Knights' secondary also will benefit from the return of second-team All-American conference safety Clayton Geathers and leading interceptor Brandon Alexander. All totaled, UCF brings back 70 of its 77 pass breakups (defined as interceptions plus passes defensed) from last season.
High-motor linebacker Terrance Plummer highlights the linebacking corps. His 2013 season included a hustle play against South Carolina where he fought off a double-team block to pursue a scrambling Connor Shaw to get a big hit and force a fumble that the Knights recovered. This type of effort helped lead Plummer to rack up a team-high 110 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 6 pass breakups.
The Knights may not have a lot of star power on their defensive line, but that group does return four starters and is a prime factor in why the team brings back 26 of its 29 sacks from 2013.
Deceptively talented offense
The departure of Bortles leaves a potentially large hole in UCF's offense, but the Knights do have three talented prospects lined up to take his place.
ESPN Recruiting Nation's scouting report on sophomore Justin Holman indicates he "flashes a live arm, has deceptive downfield arm strength ... and fits his passes into tight windows." True freshman Tyler Harris was an ESPN 300 prospect who picked UCF over early offers from Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State and SMU. He was a four-star prospect who ranked as the No. 12 pocket passing quarterback. He enrolled at UCF in January and should be ready to compete for the starting job this spring. And redshirt freshman Pete DiNovo has been with the program for a year and has a background working in a pro-style offense.
"We pride ourselves on operating a multiple offense and doing all we can to push the ball downfield, but we also want to make the defense have to cover the entire field both horizontally and vertically," assistant head coach of offense/offensive line coach/recruiting coordinator Brent Key said, when asked how the team plans on handling the transition to a new quarterback. "This approach should help us find ways to get the ball into the hands of our skill position players and take as much pressure as we can off of these young quarterbacks."
In other words, you have the combination of good competition among promising talent, and a system that is designed to create wide gaps to throw into, something Bortles certainly enjoyed.
These passers will certainly have a lot of veteran talent at those skill positions, as the Knights bring back four of their top five wideouts, including the team's leader in receptions (Rannell Hall, 57), receiving touchdowns (J.J. Worton, 7) and YPA (Breshad Perriman, 12.9). UCF also returns its starting tight end (Justin Tukes), as well as two backup tight ends who have logged significant playing time the past two years (Kevin Miller and Joseph Puopolo).
The Knights have only one upperclassman running back in Cedric Thompson, (18 career rushing attempts) but they have a strong talent in second-team All-American conference running back William Stanback. Last season, Stanback rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.3 percent of his attempts, a mark that was close to what Johnson posted (14.6 percent).
Key had especially high praise for offensive lineman Joey Grant, saying, "He is an incredibly hard worker both in the weight room and the tape room."
Grant's leadership will be a key component in getting this group to jell quickly this offseason.
Intact special teams
UCF brings back its starting kick returner (Hall), punt returner (Worton), placekicker (Shawn Moffitt, who hit 91.3 percent of his field goals last season), kickoff specialist (Sean Galvin), punter (Caleb Houston) and long snapper (Scott Teal). This group helped lead the Knights to top three finishes in the American in three of the four special teams Expected Points Added categories (which measure the overall impact of special teams plays based on a variety of factors such as field position, time on the game clock, score at the time of the play, etc.).
Upward trend in recruiting
The long-term future of this program is being built via strong recruiting. UCF made the ESPN RecruitingNation list of the top five biggest climbers in the 2014 recruiting class and likely could have rated even higher (No. 52 in the ESPN 2014 recruiting class rankings), but the Knights had only 17 commitment spots available, in part due to losing only seven scholarship seniors. Only four teams inside the top 50 had as few or fewer commitment spots available, so a similar future performance on the recruiting trail could move the Knights into a much higher ranking once they have room to sign 20 or more players.
Favorable schedule
A key to repeating the offseason signing success is for UCF to post another double-digit win campaign. This won't be easy, as the Knights will open the season against Penn State in a game in Dublin and follow that two weeks later with a contest at defending SEC East champion Missouri. These daunting tasks are somewhat offset by the fact that UCF did beat the Nittany Lions in 2013, and the Tigers return only nine starters from last season's squad, so getting victories in one or two of these games isn't out of the question.
The American schedule should be easier now that Louisville has departed for the ACC, so a 7-1 or 8-0 conference finish is certainly an achievable goal.
Add the above results to wins over BYU and/or a bowl game and it would allow this program to once again post 10 wins. If the Knights do that, it should have a positive domino effect that would allow UCF to continue its recruiting success and maintain its program's upward trajectory.
