Why not Mine That Bird?

[Michelangelo]

Well guys I'm a value chaser.

It's not often that you can play the winner of the Derby in the Preakness and call it value. But I think that's exactly what I'm gonna do.

The Telly has Mine That Bird listed at 6-1. Are you kidding me?

In a half mile the gelding passed all 19 of his Derby competitors like they were standing still, to win by the largest Derby margin of victory, 6' lengths, in over 60 years. That may be the most impressive race I've seen run in my lifetime. And I was there when Secretariat won the Belmont by 31 lengths.

Curiously enough it was also the most improbable outcome I have ever seen based on previous form. But my mind needs to get beyond that. The horse did win the race posting a respectable 106 Beyer. Maybe he's just a mud freak. Anyone who has been around this game for any length of time has seen a few horses who go from also rans to monsters when they get to run in the slop. I think they are expecting another wet track today in Maryland.

They are making the filly, Rachel Alexander, the prerace 8/5 favorite. Why? Not only must she compete with the boys for the first time, but she ran a 105 Beyer on a similar muddy track at Churchill the day before Mine That Bird exploded on the scene.

Think the value is squarely on Mine That Bird today.

 

[KennyB]

I think its nut that Rachel Aleandra in the 13th post is 8/5 to win the race. Sure puts value on the other intermediate favorites.

 

[Gaz]

Disagree with your analysis but to each his own. The derby was purely a fluke, IMO and I do not see MTB winning this race or having any shot to win this race. Heck, I don't think Calvin Borel does either. In addition 6-1 is not really that great of odds when the horse went off at 50-1 in his last race. Good luck though.

 

[billhill999]

Russ Harris has Mine That Bird on top, and he's the premier horse capper in the game.

Been reading him for 30 years, for those unfamilliar, read and learn.
http://espn.go.com/horse/columns/misc/1959690.html

 

[Michelangelo]

No problem Gaz. That's what makes parimutual betting fun. We all have different opinions and they are reflected in the odds.

What I'm looking for is if you think the horse has no shot, why?

Saying the Derby was a fluke just isn't good enough for me.

I made a mistake in my post. Rachel Alexander recorded a 108 Beyer in the Ky Oaks. Big Drama a 108 in the Swale. So that makes MTB's 105 the third best Beyer in the race.

I would like to hear a substantial reason why Mine That Bird cannot repeat on a track that should again come up sloppy/muddy.

 

[GMS325]

I agree with Gaz on this. In my opinion, Mine That Bird's win was a fluke and got the perfect trip and perfect ride by Borel. Everything set up perfectly. Won't happen again. I do not think he will hit the board today. I also believe that Rachel Alexandra will have a tough time with the boys today coming back in 2 weeks. Her losses have come with approximately 2 weeks rest. I think the newcomer, Big Drama, has a big chance today.

 

[Michelangelo]

The big question is does Mike Smith have the balls to take back and let this gelding have one very big run at the end?

Horses have preferred running styles. Prior to the Derby the strategy of taking way back had never before been used with Mine That Bird. He clearly loved it.

Of course for this strategy to be effective the horses on the front end must cooperate by running unsustainable early fractions. I think we're gonna see that today as both Big Drama and Rachel Alexander are clearly contenders as both share the highest Beyer number going into the race at 108. Both do their best work on or near the front end. Whether they have the lead or not is secondary as they will both be close up at worst. Point is when one moves the other will also move as neither will want to be chasing the other from behind.

I'm gambling that that strategy when used by both contenders will prove suicidal. Of course other contenders like Pioneer of the Nile, Pappa Clem, and Fiersan Fire will also be sucked in and ultimately beaten by a hotly contested early pace as they too will want to be close up.

So that will leave the race to the closers. Musket Man, Terrain, Luv Gov (cheap closer who came alive in the slop), and my choice, Mine That Bird.

So my question remains, does Mike Smith have the balls to let all the other formidable competitors use themselves up and come back to him? Will he hold this horse back for one ferocious late run the way Borel did? If he does I think we see a Derby repeater today.

 

[Gaz]

Time will tell. We'll all know in several hours. Again, in my opinion the horse had shown little prior to the Derby. I think the horse being 20 lengths off the pace around the first turn while other horses like Fresian Fire were getting the piss knocked out of them, helped the horse. Borel just bided his time, then all of a sudden MTB, with fresh legs and no bumps or getting beat up had the lanes open up like Moses parting the Red Sea. Calvin did a hell of a job in jockeying that horse through the holes as well as saving ground by sticking to the rail most of the way. Just don't see the miracle race happening again.

Oh and there's another reason I don't like MTB to repeat, Borel's not the rider.

 

[Michelangelo]

Congratulations to those of you who had the filly. She earned her stripe today.

The race unfolded just as I envisioned with Big Drama and Rachel A contesting a hot early pace with the other prerace contenders, PION, FF, and Papa C tucked in behind that hot early pace.

Mike Smith did indeed have the balls to sit with MTB behind the field in the early going and let the other contenders run suicidal early fractions.

When I saw 23 and 46 I thought there was an excellent chance MTB would pass all the tiring early leaders in the stretch. But I was a bit concerned to see 1:11 as I was hoping for faster and at 135:4 I knew MTB would have his work cut out for him as Calvin Borel had managed to slow the pace down some on the front end which of course meant that RA would have a little something left for the run through the deep stretch.

Sure enough, while Big Drama, POTN, FF, and Papa C wilted from those too fast early fractions, Rachel Alexandra proved her greatness by continuing on. The closers, MTB, and Musket Man, while gaining rapidly on the tiring RA, just ran out of ground.

Had this race been at the 1 1/4 Derby distance I think we would have seen a different winner and likely place horse. But it wasn't.

Sooo...

What is clear coming out of this race is that the filly is indeed an exceptional horse, that Mine That Bird was no fluke in the Derby, and that Musket Man was clearly the third best horse here, and had it not been for a severe bump by a tiring PION near the finish of the Derby, was probably the second best horse in the Derby as well.

Looking ahead to the Belmont I really don't expect to see Rachel A entered as with another horse to rabbit her as Big Drama did, she is not likely to get the 1 1/2 distance and would likely finish off the board. She got into the shortest of the Triple Crown races and made her mark but I think we would see an entirely different outcome at a longer distance. Congrats to her connections for perfectly spotting her.

Is there any doubt now who will be the big favorite come Belmont day? Yep. Mine That Bird. And I really don't think anyone can beat him at that distance. We'll see.

 

[Gaz]

He ran a good race, heck of a kick. BUT - in all honesty it's going to take one more race for me to be a believer. Still not yet. That's just me.

 

[APwins]

He ran a good race, heck of a kick. BUT - in all honesty it's going to take one more race for me to be a believer. Still not yet. That's just me.

He romped in the Derby and runs 2nd in the Preakness Two big showings in million dollar races. What is there not to believe. He will win the Belmont

 

[Gaz]

We'll see in 3 weeks

 

[pipdelight]

Good closers are usually not one time flukes. I was a believer in Mine that Bird after the Derby. I bet $50 w/p/s.

As far as Mike Smith having the balls. Not enough balls. He knew that the inside lane would probably be blocked. The other Jockey's made sure of that. He should have been more prepared for an outside run. It took to much time to maneuver around the others.

With a few more strides he would have beaten the filly and on his way to being a Triple Crown winner.

Very good value in the Preakness. Bad value in the Belmont.

 

[trytrytry]

i think you will eaisily see 5-2 or 3-1 on bird in the belmont there will be 12 starters, as i recall it was a full field ewvern versus big brown last year right??> charit man for sure will get a bunch of play..others as well...RAchel maybe even will be there....u can still make money on him belmont day..3-1 is decent.....that was a great preakness race..wow..still shaking a day later after watching the replay for the 5th time on bloodhorse.com ....