Well once a match reaches ET and possible PK's comes into play the favorite gradually loses value.
I mean the fav only has 30 minutes left to get it done, then penalties take place which are almost 50/50 in most cases. In the NBA a 10 pt fav for a game is only a 5.5 pt fav for the first half. Same type of deal, less time = more luck involved/less skill to produce outcome.
I mean the fav only has 30 minutes left to get it done, then penalties take place which are almost 50/50 in most cases. In the NBA a 10 pt fav for a game is only a 5.5 pt fav for the first half. Same type of deal, less time = more luck involved/less skill to produce outcome.
yes of course. Now I'm confused. Obviously not good at explaining this.
Netherlands pk is -350ish. (extra time and penalties can never come into play as the wager is for 90 minutes only)
Netherlands to advance is -250ish. (includes extra time and penalties).
The line has to be significantly lower. Just look at it from the underdog standpoint.
For Netherlands pk -350ish to lose Russia must win outright in 90 minutes.
For Netherlands to advance -250ish to lose Russia can try their luck in just 30 minutes or get through on penalties.
Netherlands pk is -350ish. (extra time and penalties can never come into play as the wager is for 90 minutes only)
Netherlands to advance is -250ish. (includes extra time and penalties).
The line has to be significantly lower. Just look at it from the underdog standpoint.
For Netherlands pk -350ish to lose Russia must win outright in 90 minutes.
For Netherlands to advance -250ish to lose Russia can try their luck in just 30 minutes or get through on penalties.
you are right akillie if they win in regulation they advance but the advance line is sort of tricky like park said and yesterdays turkey- croatia line proved.croatia was the better team in my opinion but once it went beyond regulation there is alot more luck involved.30 minutes is not alot of time to get a goal much less to win the game.
and once it gets to penalty kicks it cease to be who is the better team in my opinion and a ton of luck,but that is arguable I guess.
the best line is by far the netherlands win during regulation time.
no team ,and I mean no team,especially the better one, wants it to go to extra time or penalty kicks
cheers
and once it gets to penalty kicks it cease to be who is the better team in my opinion and a ton of luck,but that is arguable I guess.
the best line is by far the netherlands win during regulation time.
no team ,and I mean no team,especially the better one, wants it to go to extra time or penalty kicks
cheers
I think he is asking why the -250ish isn't 50% of the -350 line since the probability is ~50/50 once you get to OT. Basic explanation would be that the odds are still in your favor that the Dutch win in regulation meaning you win the bet.
Look at it this way, you have the PK line for 90 (-350) which pushes on a draw and the 3 way line (-140) which loses on a draw after 90. If you now throw in the entirety of the game, with draw not a possibility (to advance play), that line has to be somewhere in the middle of the 3 way and the PK line. In theory a 50/50 would split the 210 difference between the 350 and 140, for 105, or -245. That is how you get the to advance line, it is basically splitting the difference between the PK and 3 way line.
Look at it this way, you have the PK line for 90 (-350) which pushes on a draw and the 3 way line (-140) which loses on a draw after 90. If you now throw in the entirety of the game, with draw not a possibility (to advance play), that line has to be somewhere in the middle of the 3 way and the PK line. In theory a 50/50 would split the 210 difference between the 350 and 140, for 105, or -245. That is how you get the to advance line, it is basically splitting the difference between the PK and 3 way line.
