Why I'm all over USC tonight

[JDeuce]

Every play in this game is going to be critical...because with two teams so evenly matched, one mistake could literally cost them the game and national championship. Both teams have had some close calls this year, but think back to last year for a second. What was LSU's team strength which beat Oklahoma in last year's Sugar Bowl...?

Deeeeeeeeefense!

I think SC's D is a little bit better than Oklahoma's, and thats why I'm picking the Trojans tonight. USC's defense has only given up more than 20 points in a game one time this season. I'm not talking about special teams or the offense throwing INTs which were ran back for TDs...I'm talking about their defense. They give up 1.3 TDs per game, and a handful of those TDs came during garbage time when SC was up big and late scores by the other team didn't matter. They held Cal's 500 yards per game offense to 17 points back in October. Never mind what happened in the Holiday Bowl...that game happened when Cal's offense was clicking on all cylinders. That's damn impressive.

Defense wins championships, and Bob Stoops is another defensive guy, no doubt. He won a national championship as defensive coordinator under Steve Spurrier at Florida. But his D can be scored on a little easier than SC's. The Sooners have only given up a total of 6 points in the last three games, but teams like Texas A&M and Oklahoma State both hung 35 on them. I don't know if SC will score that many, but I do know they will score points because they are just too good of an offense to be shut down for an entire game.

One key play to look out for are some screens to Reggie Bush. If SC can pull those off right, you'll see Bush dancing through the Oklahoma secondary like Yule Brenner in 'The King and I.'
SC usually starts games slowly, so Oklahoma's best hope is to take advantage of that and try to get on them early. If they don't, they're doomed. I'm looking for an awesome Orange Bowl, and for the Trojans to win, say, 24-17...stopping a late Oklahoma game tying drive. Fight on...all the way to the cashier's window.

 

[Dante]

im with you USC...-107 ML

 

[xpanda]

Good luck to you tonight, JD. I'm on the other side, but good luck to you all the same.

 

[FNGinFL]

With you 110% JDeuce!

I've read arguments for both sides, and read things from "this will be another defensive struggle (Under)" to "this will be a Heisman QB shootout (Over)".

Personally I'm all over USC. I think they'll be all business, just like last year, especially after the Oklahoma Defensive mouth, er, End stating that USC is an "average" team. This from a guy that was on a team that only beat Texas A&M by a TD, and only beat Ok State by 3 points. But then, USC beat Stanford by only 3, and Cal by 6, and we saw Cal fold to Texas Tech, another Big 12 team. I'm not using that "this team played that team, so this is how another team will do" philosophy in this game. They (Cal) really didn't want to be there, and thought they should have been in the Rose Bowl. Waaah...

I believe, and people say this every year, that the Pac-10 is underrated. We saw what USC did to Michigan last year in the Rose Bowl, total domination as a 7 point chalk, even though the score isn't indicative of that absolute fact. USC hit hard, precise and fast, and forced fumbles (3). The game plan was perfectly executed, and there isn't any team in the country that has coaching better than Pete Carroll and Norm Chow. USC knew they were going to play OK all year, and with the final game more than a month after the last one, that's a helluva lot of time to get healthy and watch game film to get ready for the National Championship. Reggie Bush played in the Rose Bowl last year also, so it's not like this is his first big bowl game.

When we saw Oklahoma last year in the Sugar Bowl against LSU, they were, literally, "deer in the headlights". QB White had won the Heisman, and no one gave LSU any chance of beating this team, as OK was a 6.5 point chalk. Saban is an awesome coach, and they played to all the strengths of that team, and flat-out beat 'em, with LSU surviving a late tying score attempt. LSU got to OK early in the 2nd half with an interception 47 seconds into the 3rd quarter. Talk about a letdown after halftime!

I am seeing more noise about this OK team, just like last year, and right now at this particular moment, it looks like 57% of the public is on Oklahoma, having effectively moved the line from -3.5 for USC down to a pick.

My biggest factor I see though is how these teams do against the spread, the true measure of a team and the perception of how they should do with their talent. This year OK is 4-8 ATS, and USC is 7-5. The average spread USC had to beat was 22.75, and OK had to beat 24.1. The difference is less than two points, so the ATS wins might be different by a game for every 3-4 points in the average, but not less than 2. What does this comparison tell me? It tells me two things: 1) Oklahoma played to the level of their competition only doing just enough to win more often, and 2) The rest of the teams OK played against in the Big 12 didn't give them enough preparation to play this level of team.

Remember, Oklahoma couldn't score a TD against Texas AT HOME (they scored 4 FG's) with this supposedly "unbeatable" QB AND Adrian Peterson offensive machine, and Michigan ran up 4 on 'em. This will be another Jason White choke job, who's still pissed he didn't get a second Heisman because he put up better numbers than Matt Leinart. But, like I said, against worse competition, and apparently the voters saw it too.

Good luck to all tonight if you make a play, I'll be on the University of Spoiled Children Condoms, er, Trojans, and the Under 53 as well.

 

[Berlino]

...
Remember, Oklahoma couldn't score a TD against Texas AT HOME (they scored 4 FG's) ...

I thought this game was played annually at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Has the tradition changed?

 

[mj23]

Jduece you might have sold me here was leaning OKLA !

 

[kimbo]

Berlino

Hey Berlino,

He was talking about the game during the regular season when OK beat Texas 12 to 0....

I agree with your analysis of the game jdeuce...

Good Luck and take the Man to the cleaners!

 

[airbag]

I thought this game was played annually at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Has the tradition changed?

You're correct, it was played at Texas Stadium. But I agree with the premise. In Oklahoma's only game versus a Top 10 team, they could only manage 4 FG's. Quite frankly, they outplayed Texas by a wide margin in that game. But USC is much better than Texas on both sides of the ball. The really disturbing thing about Oklahoma is that they've allowed 35 points on the road to the only 2 decent teams that they played on the road (A&M and Ok. St.). I'm on USC. I think that Oklahoma will hang tough in the 1st half, but USC will take over when it counts. I can't see Jason White doing much of anything. And once the USC defense starts to key the run, bam!. 31-13 USC.

 

[Stormin]

Before you guys make your pick based upon OU only kicking four field goals, you should know that they did score a touchdown. They kicked two field goals and went for two after their touchdown. They did not have to open the offense up because of the way the defense was playing. Didn't know if ya'll watched the game or not just wanted to make the correction. Good luck on the game.

 

[MARTEL910]

How about if this game comes down to a late field goal attempt for Oklahoma and they send in a kicker who has never kicked a field goal in a college football game... USC is a team of destiny and has been looking for an outright championship since they had to split it last season, they want it all too themselves this year and Jason White has to be the most over-rated college QB ever, is he even in Mel Kiper's top 500 players????

USC @ PK ALL DAY ALL CENTURY

 

[JDeuce]

Not over yet, but...

 

[JDeuce]

Congrats to fellow Trojan backers. mj...I hope my write up helped you decide your Adrian Peterson under 118 rushing yards prop. Nice call on that one.

What a night. Its fun to see hopeless blowouts go in our favor.

arty: arty: arty:

:biggrinin :biggrinin :biggrinin