I've been betting horses for a long time and have never ever bet 2 horses to win. Why would you make a bet knowing damn well you atleast have a losing bet before the race. This is the dumbest bet I have ever seen. Why not use the extra cash from the win bet and wheel the horses that you like to hit the tri. Or an exacta box. But to place a bet that you know you already lost is crazy.
TheRightSide said:
2 sides of theory, one is looking short term, the other is long term. It's a matter of opinon and numbers. Player A bets only 1 horse a race, average winning odds of 3-1, and collects 25 out 100 races thus breaking even. Player B bets 2 horses a race always, average winning odds of 15-1, and collects 13 out of 100 races, giving him a +4% ROI, seems pretty logical which would be a better. A case can be made for anything. If your betting a 6/5 and a 3-1 in the same race, thats stupid because your win % would have to be sky high to come out a head in the long run. Its also no different than playing a pick 3, most wouldn't pick just one horse in each leg, and if you play a large ticket like 4 X 5 X 3, costing $60, If you win you also have purchased 59 losing tickets, its all a matter of ROI.
Yes I didn't mean betting longshots. I agree to do it with longshots in a big field than yes it might make sence. But to do it with both the horses under 8-1 is just plain stupid. I'm not trying to be mean or anything but when a certain poster in this forum tries to come off like he's a superstar than I see him bet 2 horses to win that are not longshots just makes me steam. He fails to realize that degenerates that know nothing about horse racing is playing his plays like he knows what he's doing.
e
e
You know the more you talk the more dumber you look.
If you knew what the meaning of "Dutch" is you would not have posted this thread! It just shows what you don't know! If you play 2 horses
at 2-1 on each you still profit $2.00 or 50% on you money! That's the very least. But if they are at 5-1 each you profit $8.00 or 200%
Whats the difference if you win & place a horse and he runs out and collect zero or if you like 2 horses and 1 wins and you profit! If neither wins no biggeee same result but better odds of collecting a better profit!
I can see why you are a loser! You don't understand shit in this game like you think you do or want us to believe! So when you try to make it personal in this thread about me then you are just an idiot!
Let me ask why you are so concerned about what , how, why I do what I do? Get over it !
I guess you just can't fix STUPID!
If you knew what the meaning of "Dutch" is you would not have posted this thread! It just shows what you don't know! If you play 2 horses
at 2-1 on each you still profit $2.00 or 50% on you money! That's the very least. But if they are at 5-1 each you profit $8.00 or 200%
Whats the difference if you win & place a horse and he runs out and collect zero or if you like 2 horses and 1 wins and you profit! If neither wins no biggeee same result but better odds of collecting a better profit!
I can see why you are a loser! You don't understand shit in this game like you think you do or want us to believe! So when you try to make it personal in this thread about me then you are just an idiot!
Let me ask why you are so concerned about what , how, why I do what I do? Get over it !
I guess you just can't fix STUPID!
Hey US why don't you go bet 5000 on a 1/9 to try an get back to even. You are a fraud and we all know it. 50 wp 50 wp 50 wp than all the sudden oh big play here 500 w/p please gibe us all a break. Posters that know nothing about horse racing are playing your pics. Remeber when you tried to call me out when you 1st got here. I was the one saying don't post unless you are going to bet the fucking plays. Turns out I was right on that now wasn't I. You go ahead and keep betting 2 horses in races you will be broke real soon.
Serios question Do you even look at the DRF or do you just throw #'s out there. I also notice you play alot of chalk. Chalk wins under 30% so it's nothing special to give us picks with mostly chalk.
Look at the posters here Charles Mazel GMoney CARDFAN (man is hot)
You say I'm stupid yet you keep losing your ass. Just post your picks that's fine but don't tell people your hot or your going to get it going comming up for sure. You are costing people that don't know any better lots of money. BTW any proof on that big wager from the other night. Thought not.
Serios question Do you even look at the DRF or do you just throw #'s out there. I also notice you play alot of chalk. Chalk wins under 30% so it's nothing special to give us picks with mostly chalk.
Look at the posters here Charles Mazel GMoney CARDFAN (man is hot)
You say I'm stupid yet you keep losing your ass. Just post your picks that's fine but don't tell people your hot or your going to get it going comming up for sure. You are costing people that don't know any better lots of money. BTW any proof on that big wager from the other night. Thought not.
Just go look at todays & everydays posted profits and losses and tell me just how I am losing my ass! Your just jealous! lol...
What a cry Baby!
Why do you care so much about everybody but yourself? Again we all have a mind of our own!
By the way I don't have to prove nothing to nobody but myself!
What a cry Baby!
Why do you care so much about everybody but yourself? Again we all have a mind of our own!
By the way I don't have to prove nothing to nobody but myself!
I'll play alot of W/P bets on 2 horses along with an exacta...and don't even get on my ass today about my roi...after 2 profitable days in a row (not enough to cover today but still) I don't want to hear shit from you without you posting up some picks.
Also, as I recall, you never had time to play in a contest between US and myself.....tree....oh shit nevermind....:nohead:
uppy:
Also, as I recall, you never had time to play in a contest between US and myself.....tree....oh shit nevermind....:nohead:
uppy:
I hate to jump in the middle of a brouhaha, but....you're both right actually.
What up TheRightSide? You make a very interesting point that is actually a sign of today's times: your thesis may not have been the case years ago, but is becoming more & more so with the passage of time & today's exotics opportunities. Before today's widespread exotics, which you mention, there used to be lots of people who made a living doing just such a Win Dutching thing... even Place Dutching was done.
In fact, before Vegas went parimutuel, the quickest way to get tossed by a book was to walk up to a teller and attempt to bet two or more horses to win, esp. dutched...if the place didn't toss one outright, they would harass one by getting one bet in but the other one shut out, etc.
The logic of the dutch is not flawed imho-- take how sometimes one bets a coupled entry that by force contains a likely also-ran that still depresses the odds...well, one can create one's own entry, with two or more 'good' contenders & odds as well!
And there is also bankroll 'velocity' to consider: let's say one hits 25-35% winners with one horse...why not win more than half of one's races bet 'even though the return per hit is lower'? Because flat betting aside, one makes a heck of a lot more money in the end! The higher hit rate allows for a formula with a high compounding rate(& btw the most notorious one, Kelly Criterion, is fundamentally flawed: possibly leading to ruin).
I like to make the analogy of a bank account: if one's money could be compounded every day or two or three, instead of once a month, one would quickly get rich...to a lesser extent, this is what we would be doing to the bankroll, making it grow at a faster speed...like a smaller horse beating a larger one, it wins with extra strides, even though they are smaller each.
(This is why i've gravitated to laying horses to lose in the exchanges: at a 90+% hit rate: though small, the payoffs can be parlayed several times)
Because if one utilizes the reasoning that one win bet in the dutch is an automatic loser, well the same applies to wheeling exotics then: dozens of combos are automatic losers!
And we haven't even mentioned the psychological benefits of enduring less prolonged losing streaks & winning more than half the time.
But again, with such a methodology one MUST compound...flat betting won't get it done.
BUT yes you're right, with so many more exotics options offered today, that may be the better option than the win pool in general, but it sure ain't easy.
Exactas/Tris? The problem with these is that, say one selects enough win contenders per race to achieve a 90% hit rate, irregardless of price, but instead decides to play them in exotics: well, those are Win contenders, not Place or Show contenders..."totally different animals". If one Exacta boxes all those Win contenders,(irregardless of profit, if any), the hit rate is much lower than ½. Win contenders may not be persevered with if the Win is out of reach...in such a case which of the severely outclassed horses' connections are willing to go all out for one of the minor awards?
Pick 3/4"s & DD's? Let's say we stick only to the 'rolling' kind, so that we're not stuck with an indescribably bad race or two utilized to encourage high mutuels...or else become close to a whale and bet several hundred at a time. If not, we must be prepared for LONG losing streaks: 30% hit rate 'per race'-- .3 X .3 X .3 = 2.7% hit rate per 'pik exotic'.
It's not easy. In the days of yore before pick threes arrived, field sizes diminished, & so much information became public knowledge, I'd find many races to dutch: as many as 4/5 horses in one race...but now everyone has all kinds of information at their disposal: from pace figs to bias to--Speaking of bias-- track maintenance has killed a lot it...& where it hasn't, jocks & trainers are so in tune with it, that often speedsters burn each other out trying to secure the golden front and/or rail position, allowing closers to win anyhow!
It is just VERY hard nowadays...wish i could travel back in time.
Ultimate Selector! What up dog? I'm a software junkie...can you say the name right here? If not, my member name here is the same at hotmail..tia.
All the best... & kindest regards to you both.
What up TheRightSide? You make a very interesting point that is actually a sign of today's times: your thesis may not have been the case years ago, but is becoming more & more so with the passage of time & today's exotics opportunities. Before today's widespread exotics, which you mention, there used to be lots of people who made a living doing just such a Win Dutching thing... even Place Dutching was done.
In fact, before Vegas went parimutuel, the quickest way to get tossed by a book was to walk up to a teller and attempt to bet two or more horses to win, esp. dutched...if the place didn't toss one outright, they would harass one by getting one bet in but the other one shut out, etc.
The logic of the dutch is not flawed imho-- take how sometimes one bets a coupled entry that by force contains a likely also-ran that still depresses the odds...well, one can create one's own entry, with two or more 'good' contenders & odds as well!
And there is also bankroll 'velocity' to consider: let's say one hits 25-35% winners with one horse...why not win more than half of one's races bet 'even though the return per hit is lower'? Because flat betting aside, one makes a heck of a lot more money in the end! The higher hit rate allows for a formula with a high compounding rate(& btw the most notorious one, Kelly Criterion, is fundamentally flawed: possibly leading to ruin).
I like to make the analogy of a bank account: if one's money could be compounded every day or two or three, instead of once a month, one would quickly get rich...to a lesser extent, this is what we would be doing to the bankroll, making it grow at a faster speed...like a smaller horse beating a larger one, it wins with extra strides, even though they are smaller each.
(This is why i've gravitated to laying horses to lose in the exchanges: at a 90+% hit rate: though small, the payoffs can be parlayed several times)
Because if one utilizes the reasoning that one win bet in the dutch is an automatic loser, well the same applies to wheeling exotics then: dozens of combos are automatic losers!
And we haven't even mentioned the psychological benefits of enduring less prolonged losing streaks & winning more than half the time.
But again, with such a methodology one MUST compound...flat betting won't get it done.
BUT yes you're right, with so many more exotics options offered today, that may be the better option than the win pool in general, but it sure ain't easy.
Exactas/Tris? The problem with these is that, say one selects enough win contenders per race to achieve a 90% hit rate, irregardless of price, but instead decides to play them in exotics: well, those are Win contenders, not Place or Show contenders..."totally different animals". If one Exacta boxes all those Win contenders,(irregardless of profit, if any), the hit rate is much lower than ½. Win contenders may not be persevered with if the Win is out of reach...in such a case which of the severely outclassed horses' connections are willing to go all out for one of the minor awards?
Pick 3/4"s & DD's? Let's say we stick only to the 'rolling' kind, so that we're not stuck with an indescribably bad race or two utilized to encourage high mutuels...or else become close to a whale and bet several hundred at a time. If not, we must be prepared for LONG losing streaks: 30% hit rate 'per race'-- .3 X .3 X .3 = 2.7% hit rate per 'pik exotic'.
It's not easy. In the days of yore before pick threes arrived, field sizes diminished, & so much information became public knowledge, I'd find many races to dutch: as many as 4/5 horses in one race...but now everyone has all kinds of information at their disposal: from pace figs to bias to--Speaking of bias-- track maintenance has killed a lot it...& where it hasn't, jocks & trainers are so in tune with it, that often speedsters burn each other out trying to secure the golden front and/or rail position, allowing closers to win anyhow!
It is just VERY hard nowadays...wish i could travel back in time.
Ultimate Selector! What up dog? I'm a software junkie...can you say the name right here? If not, my member name here is the same at hotmail..tia.
All the best... & kindest regards to you both.
TheRightSide
You are right and wrong. Depends on the race. If I like a 5/2 shot
and I think there is value on a 8/1-12/1 shot I don't mind
making both bets. Bet $100 win @ 5/2 and $20 win on the 12/1
why not.
I do think it is foolish to bet 2 horses in a race sometimes. Like
if both horses are less than 5/1. Drops your odds in half.
You are right and wrong. Depends on the race. If I like a 5/2 shot
and I think there is value on a 8/1-12/1 shot I don't mind
making both bets. Bet $100 win @ 5/2 and $20 win on the 12/1
why not.
I do think it is foolish to bet 2 horses in a race sometimes. Like
if both horses are less than 5/1. Drops your odds in half.
My apologies to all other members!
I usually do not get into name calling and the like. It seems The Wrong side has to keep making this personal in every manner. This jusy forces me to keep defending myself. I can't stand it when a guy likes to do all this trash talking and even go to lengths to set up a thread about the way I bet or the way I play. Who Cares? !! It's all about posting winners! Anyone can then do as they wish with that posted selection! They can choose to play it, not play it, Wheel it or whatever they want. He wants to set up rules or something rediculas! Let people decide what they think is right for them! Everyone has a system & a way they play the horses! No ONE way is right or wrong! If I chose all losers it would then be a self solving problem as I would have no views! But that's not the case!
I want to see him do some posting instead of all this venom he spews about things he thinks is wrong or not to his liking! It so easy to sit back and trash talk. But put yourself out there in the public eye and pressure and I think he will realize iy's not all that easy to do on a daily basis. He acts like I just trhow numbers up on the board! Boy how wrong he is! That's why I challange him! I know he will never take me up on it. He needs to be brought to reality of it all! Anyway, it's about money management and picking your spots to make comebacks and the like! Something he will never learn by his attitude os a slef defeatist! I think enough said! I am a professional! I try to treat all with dignity and respect. You get treated the way you treat others!
Ultimate Selector!
I usually do not get into name calling and the like. It seems The Wrong side has to keep making this personal in every manner. This jusy forces me to keep defending myself. I can't stand it when a guy likes to do all this trash talking and even go to lengths to set up a thread about the way I bet or the way I play. Who Cares? !! It's all about posting winners! Anyone can then do as they wish with that posted selection! They can choose to play it, not play it, Wheel it or whatever they want. He wants to set up rules or something rediculas! Let people decide what they think is right for them! Everyone has a system & a way they play the horses! No ONE way is right or wrong! If I chose all losers it would then be a self solving problem as I would have no views! But that's not the case!
I want to see him do some posting instead of all this venom he spews about things he thinks is wrong or not to his liking! It so easy to sit back and trash talk. But put yourself out there in the public eye and pressure and I think he will realize iy's not all that easy to do on a daily basis. He acts like I just trhow numbers up on the board! Boy how wrong he is! That's why I challange him! I know he will never take me up on it. He needs to be brought to reality of it all! Anyway, it's about money management and picking your spots to make comebacks and the like! Something he will never learn by his attitude os a slef defeatist! I think enough said! I am a professional! I try to treat all with dignity and respect. You get treated the way you treat others!
Ultimate Selector!
TheRightSide said:
TheRightSide, I really dont know what you have against US, he is genuinely a good guy that posts his picks for free to help the rest of the forum.... he really never said negative things to you until you started shit with him..all this bashing is useless, if you don't like him you can just ignore him... I can vouch for US as he is personally a good friend of mine, and I don't only know him over the forum so I know how he is as a person too... and he does horses for a living... so don't start saying the money he bets with is play money because I've seen it with my own eyes.... I have seen his software with my own eyes and I know what is real...If US said he made a $5000 bet then believe him, im sure he's not only posting that to impress you... and come on he doesn't need to really show you proof, I mean who are you to him? Just my 2 cents for those that don't believe US like TheRightSide....
Well I can see betting 2 horses when the scenario plays out like Gyn says. But you wouldn't ever bet the 2 horses at the same money with them both being under 8-1. That's just dumb.
Kobefan I have nothing against US personaly. And no I don't think that out of the blue he bet 5grand on a horse. Why does he feel the need to post how much he's playing on it. He already has gotten called out on this and it wasn't from me. I would hope he post it for free this is not a forum for touts and BTW I was all over that soon as he started posting. I started a thread saying that I felt a sales pitch comming from him. So now he can't when he promised that was not the case.
Charles I hold you in high regaurd and I know I could learn so much from you posting.
Charles Labeeb Mazel GMoney all have shown in the past you know your shit. I have alot of respect for horseplayers like you guys I love to gamble but I realy love to play the ponies. I know that it is almost impossible to be the horses long term.
US I unlike you just do not have time to sit in front of the puter and tv all day. Yeah you have nothing to prove to anyone that is why we don't understand why you feel the need to say how much you are playing. It's all about posting winners. Yeah no shit it is. Too bad you and winners don't get along since you been on this forum
US I am not rooting against you. I hope all your picks come 1st. Just play your picks and stop posting that your going to get hot soon. Most these posters here do not have the bankroll that you must have. They can't wait for your chalk picks to come in.
You lost over 15000 today that's not picking winners US. That is playing way too many races from way too mant tracks. You just lower your chances with every pick you make. Hell when I'm betting I never look at your pics so it does not make me think about either going for or against you.
Kobefan I have nothing against US personaly. And no I don't think that out of the blue he bet 5grand on a horse. Why does he feel the need to post how much he's playing on it. He already has gotten called out on this and it wasn't from me. I would hope he post it for free this is not a forum for touts and BTW I was all over that soon as he started posting. I started a thread saying that I felt a sales pitch comming from him. So now he can't when he promised that was not the case.
Charles I hold you in high regaurd and I know I could learn so much from you posting.
Charles Labeeb Mazel GMoney all have shown in the past you know your shit. I have alot of respect for horseplayers like you guys I love to gamble but I realy love to play the ponies. I know that it is almost impossible to be the horses long term.
US I unlike you just do not have time to sit in front of the puter and tv all day. Yeah you have nothing to prove to anyone that is why we don't understand why you feel the need to say how much you are playing. It's all about posting winners. Yeah no shit it is. Too bad you and winners don't get along since you been on this forum
US I am not rooting against you. I hope all your picks come 1st. Just play your picks and stop posting that your going to get hot soon. Most these posters here do not have the bankroll that you must have. They can't wait for your chalk picks to come in.
You lost over 15000 today that's not picking winners US. That is playing way too many races from way too mant tracks. You just lower your chances with every pick you make. Hell when I'm betting I never look at your pics so it does not make me think about either going for or against you.
Well you see that's the difference between you and me! I do this for a living! This is all I do! I don't have a job that I go to except for these horses! I know what I am doing and have experienced way more that you will ever know about this game! I know how to handle days like this along with great days also! But What I don't understand bout you is why you keep tyring to attack me! I don't really care what YOU think about what I do or how I do it! I don't care if you believe me! But for you to think your going to have me sit back and let you hate on my game and act like I don't know what I am doing here and just throwing up numbers your just out of your mind. Don't try and convince everyone that what you think....They have to think also! Let everyone make up thier own mind with out you having a side show parade about it. You are obviously viewing my thread regularly to keep up with this nonsense! So I must have your curiousity! Just let it go and don't worry about how many races I play or don't play or how much I bet or don't bet!! Worry about yourself! I find it very interesting that you love to talk about my losing days... But I never hear anything on winning days! So I conclude that you are just out to be hating on me! Also, You don't need to bring other names into this and pit guys against each other the way you do. That is wrong and shows no class! Grow up and try being a nice guy for a change you might find it alot less stressful and enjoyable!
Respectfully,
Ultimate Selector!
Respectfully,
Ultimate Selector!
