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MAC college football betting preview: Coaching changes, QB swaps headline Mid-American
In the calendar years of 2011 and 2012, the MAC went a combined 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in bowl games. It has since lost seven straight bowls (0-7 ATS), including five last season.
Bowling Green is the clear favorite to win the conference this time around while also giving the MAC its best chance for a bowl win. But there are plenty of other postseason contenders.
Akron Zips (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Zips: The Zips won only six games combined in the four years prior to last season, when they suddenly improved enough for a five-win campaign. Quarterback Kyle Pohl and running back Jawon Chisholm are an experienced duo. The defensive will be inexperienced, but it’s hard to bet against veteran coordinator Chuck Amato.
Why not bet the Zips: Akron has stumbled through eight consecutive losing seasons. Both of last year’s starting cornerbacks are gone and only one starter on the defensive line returns. Three starting offensive linemen have departed, which could be problematic in front of a QB who has been error-prone in the past.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5.
Ball State Cardinals (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Cardinals: Ball State has improved its season win total in every one of the four years with head coach Pete Lembo at the helm. The running game will be featured more prominently in 2014 and that’s a good thing. Jahwan Edwards is the school’s all-time leader in touchdown runs and needs just 697 yards to set Ball State’s rushing record.
Why not bet the Cardinals: Four-year starting quarterback Keith Wenning is gone. So too are three of the Cardinals’ top four receivers. Willie Snead (106 catches, 1,516 yards, 15 TDs) left for the NFL after his junior campaign. Only one starter on the defensive line is returning.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Bowling Green Falcons (2013: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +125
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Falcons: Dino Babers is in as head coach after being at the helm of the leading offense in the FCS last season (Eastern Illinois averaged 589.5 YPG and 48.2 PPG). Junior quarterback Matt Johnson (3,467 passing yards, 25 touchdowns in 2013) should be one of the beneficiaries. Bowling Green’s defense led the MAC in fewest points allowed last season.
Why not bet the Falcons: The drawback of a first conference championship in 21 years is losing a head coach. Dave Clawson departed for Wake Forest. Three of the four starters in the secondary must be replaced. The interior of the defensive line is also a slight question mark.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Buffalo Bulls (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Bulls: Although they lost a few key offensive players, the Bulls return eight starters on that side of the ball, including QB Joe Licata. The offensive line, which brings back all five of its starters, could be the best in the conference. A soft early-season schedule could foster confidence.
Why not bet the Bulls: Buffalo must try to replace MAC Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the school’s all-time leading rusher, Branden Oliver. Even beyond Mack, the front seven is depleted. Under head coach Jeff Quinn, the Bulls are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS against opponents with winning percentages greater than .250.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5.
Central Michigan Chippewas (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3,000
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Chippewas: The Chippewas open with a weak schedule that includes real opportunities for major-conference wins (vs. Purdue and Kansas). Quarterback Cody Kater is back after missing most of 2013 with a broken collarbone. Wide receiver Titus Davis opted against the NFL. A total of 18 starters return.
Why not bet the Chippewas: Under head coach Dan Enos, the Chippewas are 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS against winning MAC opponents. In 2013, four of their five conference wins came against teams that were either 0-8 or 1-7 in the MAC. A potential quarterback controversy could become a problem.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5.
Eastern Michigan Eagles (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 2.5
Why bet the Eagles: Chris Creighton boasts an overall record of 139-46 as a head coach, albeit with no experience at the FBS level. Running back Bronson Hill is back after recording the first 1,000-yard season for Eastern Michigan in a decade. The team’s four leading pass-catchers are all returning.
Why not bet the Eagles: A new coaching regime is in, which could be a good thing in the long run but will signal a transition period right now. The Eagles gave up an average of 510.8 yards and 45.2 points per game in 2013. They have recorded only one winning season since 1990 (6-5 in 1995).
Season win total pick: Under 2.5
Kent State Golden Flashes (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Golden Flashes: Quarterback Colin Reardon has a year of starting experience under his belt and he will still have 2013 leading pass-catcher Chris Humphrey and leading rusher Trayion Durham at his disposal. The Golden Flashes boast a solid duo at linebacker in Matt Dellinger and DeVante’ Strickland.
Why not bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State went 11-3 in 2012 under Darrell Hazell but compiled a 4-8 mark in Paul Haynes’ first year at the helm. The Golden Flashes are one of only two MAC teams, along with UMass, without an FCS opponent on the schedule. On defense, the line will need almost a complete overhaul.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Massachusetts Minutemen (2013: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 1.5
Why bet the Minutemen: Mark Whipple is back on board as head coach, 11 years after his first stint with the Minutemen, during which he won 49 games in six seasons. He will have options at quarterback with sophomore A.J. Doyle and also Blake Frohnapfel, who transferred from Marshall. The Minutemen are leaving the MAC in 2015 so they will be inspired to go out with some sort of bang.
Why not bet the Minutemen: Massachusetts is coming off back-to-back 1-11 campaigns in which the one win came against a team that went winless in the MAC. The defensive line is in shambles and there’s no depth to speak of aside from maybe at quarterback.
Season win total pick: Under 1.5.
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2013: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 1.5
Why bet the Redhawks: The good news is that it can’t get any worse. But will it get better? Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chuck Martin is in as head coach. Fifteen starters return, which is not necessarily a great thing but at least the Redhawks will have some experience.
Why not bet the Redhawks: Miami (Ohio) has posted three losing seasons in a row, including a bagel last year. Don Treadwell is out, so the Redhawks will have to adjust to a new coaching staff. The 2013 team was dead last in the nation in red-zone offense, second worst in third-down conversions, and third worst in sacks allowed.
Season win total pick: Under 1.5.
Northern Illinois Huskies (2013: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +250
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois is loaded at running back with Cameron Stingily and Akeem Daniels. The Huskies also boast a talented receiver duo in Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis. They are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Jordan Lynch, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, is gone. The defensive line and secondary also have to be rebuilt. A relatively young team will get a trial by fire with early road dates at Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5.
Ohio Bobcats (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats have been consistent winners under former Nebraska head coach Frank Solich, with five consecutive bowl trips. They return seven starters on defense and will be extremely deep in their front seven.
Why not bet the Bobcats: Ohio will need an overhaul on offense following the departure of a star quarterback, two top rushers, five of the top six receivers, and three offensive linemen. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship were the team’s undisputed leaders the past few years but are now gone.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Toledo Rockets (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +250
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Rockets: Sixteen starters - including six all-MAC performers - are returning. The Rockets should be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Kicker Jeremiah Detmer, a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, has converted 36 of 37 field goal attempts over the past two years.
Why not bet the Rockets: Experience will not necessarily mean success on the defensive side of the ball. Toledo allowed more than 420 yards per game last season. Former quarterback Terrance Owens is one of the few starters that have to be replaced.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Western Michigan Broncos (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4,000
Season win total: 3.5
Why bet the Broncos: Head coach P.J. Fleck has a year under his belt and probably won’t be as overconfident as he was heading into the 2013 campaign. He brought in a stellar recruiting class more heralded than a handful of Big Ten teams. All-MAC senior cornerback Donald Celiscar headlines an experienced and likely outstanding secondary.
Why not bet the Broncos: Western Michigan won only one game last season and it came via a 31-30 decision after Massachusetts botched a two-point conversion attempt. Freshmen are expected to compete for just about every single starting position on the offensive side of the ball.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
