Who is the better No. 4: Texas A&M or Washington?
Sharon Katz
ESPN Analytics
ESPN INSIDER
The biggest surprise of the initial College Football Playoff rankings release on Tuesday was undoubtedly 7-1 Texas A&M ranked ahead of 8-0 Washington. The selection committee has consistently gone against poll logic in the past and has mostly been praised for its forward thinking. In this instance, should Texas A&M be ranked fourth, and what does it mean for both teams going forward?
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Texas A&M's has a superior résumé
When asked about the decision to rank the Aggies higher, CFP selection committee chair Kirby Hocutt referenced Texas A&M's strength of schedule and quality wins.
"We had a lengthy discussion on the spot," Hocutt said. "Washington is a well-balanced team and they had a good win on the road against Utah. But in the committee's mind, Texas A&M has played a stronger schedule."
There is no doubt that Texas A&M has played a harder schedule; the Aggies' schedule ranks 26th, according to FPI's SOS calculations, while Washington has played the fourth-easiest schedule of any Power 5 school.
The question remains whether it is harder to go 7-1 against Texas A&M's schedule or 8-0 against Washington's. According to ESPN's Strength of Record metric, an average Top 25 team would have a 10 percent chance of starting 7-1 against Texas A&M's schedule and a 21 percent chance of going 8-0 against Washington's.
The key for the Aggies is their quality wins, which Hocutt referenced when discussing Texas A&M's wins versus teams with a winning record. While that is one way to measure quality wins, it has some flaw by treating 6-2 Auburn the same as a 6-2 team from a Group of 5 conference and failing to account for the difficulty of winning on the road.
Accounting for those factors and more, Texas A&M has two quality wins -- which we will define as a win in which an average Top 25 team would have less than a 66 percent chance of winning -- and Washington has one. The Aggies' 29-16 win at Auburn was actually its best win of the season so far, based on ESPN's game score metric, and their loss at Alabama is about as forgivable a loss as possible.
Therefore, if teams are ranked based on their résumés, Texas A&M certainly has a case to be ranked in the top four. Once we add in other factors, such as which teams would win if they faced off, the debate between Washington and Texas A&M is murkier.
Ultimate example of best vs. most deserving
Texas A&M's ranking ahead of Washington is the latest example of the committee siding with a team's résumé rather than its play on the field.
Washington currently ranks seventh in FPI and is expected to be about two points better than Texas A&M on a neutral field. The Huskies have the highest average win probability of any team in the country, and after adjusting for the strength of opponents faced, they rank second in game control behind only Alabama.
Both teams have the ability to win in all three phases of the game, but Washington's superior offense -- led by Jake Browning, Myles Gaskin and John Ross -- would put it over the edge in a head-to-head matchup with the Aggies.
There are clearly two camps when it comes to ranking teams -- those that favor the best teams and those that favor the most deserving ones. It looks like the most deserving team won out in this head-to-head comparison.
Of course, the initial rankings don't matter
There will be a lot of emphasis on the initial College Football Playoff rankings, but what matters most is who will be there in the end. After all, five of the eight teams in the initial rankings the past two years did not make the playoff.
According to FiveThirtyEight's College Football Playoff projections, Washington has the fourth-best chance to make the playoff (47 percent), and Texas A&M's playoff odds rank seventh (20 percent).
That's because Washington is in a far better position than Texas A&M going forward, given its chance to win its conference and add one more quality win to its résumé in a potential Pac-12 title game.
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According to our Football Power Index, Washington has a 53 percent chance to win the Pac-12 and a 50 percent chance to win the conference with fewer than two losses. It would take a minor miracle for the Aggies to win the SEC, and there's still a 71 percent chance they lose at least one more game with LSU and Ole Miss still on their schedule.
The real question is whether Washington's upcoming schedule is strong enough that it can afford to drop a game if it goes on to win the Pac-12 title.
The Huskies have the 14th-hardest remaining schedule in the country, and they have a chance to pick up two more quality wins versus USC next week and at Washington State in the Apple Cup on Nov. 25. By the end of the season, Washington is projected to play FPI's 55th-ranked overall strength of schedule, which certainly isn't great, but is better than 10 other Power 5 schools, including Louisville and Nebraska.
Washington and especially Texas A&M will be reliant on what happens in the other Power 5 conferences. Chances are there will be some chaos before seasons end, so both teams simply need to keep winning and the playoff landscape will sort itself out.
Sharon Katz
ESPN Analytics
ESPN INSIDER
The biggest surprise of the initial College Football Playoff rankings release on Tuesday was undoubtedly 7-1 Texas A&M ranked ahead of 8-0 Washington. The selection committee has consistently gone against poll logic in the past and has mostly been praised for its forward thinking. In this instance, should Texas A&M be ranked fourth, and what does it mean for both teams going forward?
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Texas A&M's has a superior résumé
When asked about the decision to rank the Aggies higher, CFP selection committee chair Kirby Hocutt referenced Texas A&M's strength of schedule and quality wins.
"We had a lengthy discussion on the spot," Hocutt said. "Washington is a well-balanced team and they had a good win on the road against Utah. But in the committee's mind, Texas A&M has played a stronger schedule."
There is no doubt that Texas A&M has played a harder schedule; the Aggies' schedule ranks 26th, according to FPI's SOS calculations, while Washington has played the fourth-easiest schedule of any Power 5 school.
The question remains whether it is harder to go 7-1 against Texas A&M's schedule or 8-0 against Washington's. According to ESPN's Strength of Record metric, an average Top 25 team would have a 10 percent chance of starting 7-1 against Texas A&M's schedule and a 21 percent chance of going 8-0 against Washington's.
The key for the Aggies is their quality wins, which Hocutt referenced when discussing Texas A&M's wins versus teams with a winning record. While that is one way to measure quality wins, it has some flaw by treating 6-2 Auburn the same as a 6-2 team from a Group of 5 conference and failing to account for the difficulty of winning on the road.
Accounting for those factors and more, Texas A&M has two quality wins -- which we will define as a win in which an average Top 25 team would have less than a 66 percent chance of winning -- and Washington has one. The Aggies' 29-16 win at Auburn was actually its best win of the season so far, based on ESPN's game score metric, and their loss at Alabama is about as forgivable a loss as possible.
Therefore, if teams are ranked based on their résumés, Texas A&M certainly has a case to be ranked in the top four. Once we add in other factors, such as which teams would win if they faced off, the debate between Washington and Texas A&M is murkier.
Ultimate example of best vs. most deserving
Texas A&M's ranking ahead of Washington is the latest example of the committee siding with a team's résumé rather than its play on the field.
Washington currently ranks seventh in FPI and is expected to be about two points better than Texas A&M on a neutral field. The Huskies have the highest average win probability of any team in the country, and after adjusting for the strength of opponents faced, they rank second in game control behind only Alabama.
Both teams have the ability to win in all three phases of the game, but Washington's superior offense -- led by Jake Browning, Myles Gaskin and John Ross -- would put it over the edge in a head-to-head matchup with the Aggies.
There are clearly two camps when it comes to ranking teams -- those that favor the best teams and those that favor the most deserving ones. It looks like the most deserving team won out in this head-to-head comparison.
Of course, the initial rankings don't matter
There will be a lot of emphasis on the initial College Football Playoff rankings, but what matters most is who will be there in the end. After all, five of the eight teams in the initial rankings the past two years did not make the playoff.
According to FiveThirtyEight's College Football Playoff projections, Washington has the fourth-best chance to make the playoff (47 percent), and Texas A&M's playoff odds rank seventh (20 percent).
That's because Washington is in a far better position than Texas A&M going forward, given its chance to win its conference and add one more quality win to its résumé in a potential Pac-12 title game.
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| CATEGORY | WASHINGTON | TEXAS A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 11.7 | 10.1 |
| Chance to win conf | 53 percent | 2 percent |
| Chance to finish with < 2 losses | 76 percent | 29 percent |
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According to our Football Power Index, Washington has a 53 percent chance to win the Pac-12 and a 50 percent chance to win the conference with fewer than two losses. It would take a minor miracle for the Aggies to win the SEC, and there's still a 71 percent chance they lose at least one more game with LSU and Ole Miss still on their schedule.
The real question is whether Washington's upcoming schedule is strong enough that it can afford to drop a game if it goes on to win the Pac-12 title.
The Huskies have the 14th-hardest remaining schedule in the country, and they have a chance to pick up two more quality wins versus USC next week and at Washington State in the Apple Cup on Nov. 25. By the end of the season, Washington is projected to play FPI's 55th-ranked overall strength of schedule, which certainly isn't great, but is better than 10 other Power 5 schools, including Louisville and Nebraska.
Washington and especially Texas A&M will be reliant on what happens in the other Power 5 conferences. Chances are there will be some chaos before seasons end, so both teams simply need to keep winning and the playoff landscape will sort itself out.
