Who is the AL East favorite?

[VaultedTreehouse]

I thought when the Yankees were 5 games back they'd still win it. Somehow, most books still have the Red Sox the favorite. I don't really care about the Yanks pitching problems. They can win games 11-10. This isn't the playoffs. They need only win the division and I think they will. Orioles obviously are a wild card in this race, but hard to envision.

 

[sherman]

I thought when the Yankees were 5 games back they'd still win it. Somehow, most books still have the Red Sox the favorite. I don't really care about the Yanks pitching problems. They can win games 11-10. This isn't the playoffs. They need only win the division and I think they will. Orioles obviously are a wild card in this race, but hard to envision.

hard to win alot of games 11-10....

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

but the sox are going down the tubes.

 

[tooran]

With Foulke, Millar and Bellhorn stinking it up, gotta go with the Yanks. Unfortunately.

 

[lostitall]

With Foulke, Millar and Bellhorn stinking it up, gotta go with the Yanks. Unfortunately.

I agree, but with a preseson Bos bet, and a ASB NYY bet I'm a little nervous. I don't like Balt's chances, +650-+750 looks like a decent value though. I can guarantee a decent profit by adding a small balt future, hedge?

 

[ChuckSims]

Before yesterdays games, Pinnacle had NYY +130...Boston +105 to win the east.

 

[tooran]

I don't like Balt's chances, +650-+750 looks like a decent value though. I can guarantee a decent profit by adding a small balt future, hedge?

It does look like a good bet on paper, but I wouldn't touch Baltimore with a ten foot pole right now. Apologies to Journeyman.

This from ESPN.com today: Baltimore has gone 1-4-1 in its last six series. ... After starting the year 18-8 on the road, the Orioles have lost 14 of their last 19 games away from Oriole Park...

I expect a similar slide from the White Sox in the very near future. Hope I'm wrong though.

 

[Journeyman]

Both teams are in deep trouble...no pitching, if Balto can get a top 3rd starter look out...they have enough offense to get it done...Sosa swinging the bat some for the first time all year , Bedard is back and Javy Lopez is close.

Bedard, Cabrerra and possibly A.J. Burnett , that is better than NY and Bos have at this point.

 

[Journeyman]

It does look like a good bet on paper, but I wouldn't touch Baltimore with a ten foot pole right now. Apologies to Journeyman.

This from ESPN.com today: Baltimore has gone 1-4-1 in its last six series. ... After starting the year 18-8 on the road, the Orioles have lost 14 of their last 19 games away from Oriole Park...

I expect a similar slide from the White Sox in the very near future. Hope I'm wrong though.

tooran...I haven't really believed the O's could end up winning the East until recently...they are a really solid team , the slide started after the injuries started mounting, particularly Bedard and Lopez and losing Melvin Mora for a few weeks...and Sosa has been horrible...they 're finally getting the players back and finished the first half beating Boston 3 of 4...they have handled both NY and Bos this season...with the pitching problems NY and BOS have I cannot see either running away...

I think 90 games could win the East.

 

[BlueWolf]

If I may share my opinion, despite having such few posts...

I think you get a feel of how a season will turn out, at one point. Just like in a boxing match, when I am hoping for my future pick to get knocked down in the 1st round so I could get better lines, Yanks were a good pick a few weeks ago before their winning streak. And they still are.

But if you think BoSox future winning streaks will take them all the way to division title, then you should wait for them to go down to 4-5 games back.

I agree with Balt being a very long shot for the title.

BlueWolf

 

[tooran]

the slide started after the injuries started mounting, particularly Bedard and Lopez and losing Melvin Mora for a few weeks...and Sosa has been horrible...they 're finally getting the players back and finished the first half beating Boston 3 of 4

Good point about the return of key injured players, especially Bedard. I think I'm just bitter because my upstart Blue Jays are fading, and those lousy Yankees are charging. In my heart, I'd love to see the O's take the East (assuming the Jays are toast), but my head remains unconvinced.

However, with the recent resurgence of aging sluggers Sosa and Raffy, the return of Bedard and Lopez, and the continued stellar play of Roberts, maybe there's still a chance. 90 games to win it, eh? The O's still have a great record for a team amidst an extended slide, so who knows?

But those freakin' Yanks.....

 

[Journeyman]

How many games do you think it will take to win it tooran?

 

[lostitall]

Both teams are in deep trouble...no pitching, if Balto can get a top 3rd starter look out...they have enough offense to get it done...Sosa swinging the bat some for the first time all year , Bedard is back and Javy Lopez is close.

Bedard, Cabrerra and possibly A.J. Burnett , that is better than NY and Bos have at this point.

A healthy, somewhat productive Javy would make a big difference, and AJ could push them over the top. A lot needs to go right (almost perfect) for this team to beat two monsters though.


Anyways, I just found +770 so I made a small hedge.

 

[tooran]

Right now, NY is on pace for 89 wins, and Balt and Boston on pace for 88.

In the past ten years, however, 90 wins would only be good to win one AL East title. More significantly, 90 wins was only good enough for second place three times since 1996 (in 2001, 2000 and 1996).

I know the Yanks had a slow start and the Sox are faltering, but I have to think a team will still need 95 wins to get the AL East. The Yanks are now a different team than in the first half (why, I don't know), and the Sox will rise to the occasion when the Yanks start piling up the wins. Not to say that the O's can't do it, especially if they keep beating the Yanks and Sox this year, but I think that the O's will definitely have to dramatically pick up their pace on their projected 88 win season.

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Bedard might be the best pitcher in the AL East. He was awesome again last night. His ERA is now 1.89. Daniel Cabrera also has very nasty stuff. Add Burnett and look out. Palmeiro has been red hot and even Sosa went yard last night. The Red Sox have a very favorable schedule the last month of the season and they will make a trade. F the Yankees (curse of the Moose).

 

[VegasVic]

Unless something has changed from the first 100 plus years of baseball I believe the truism is pitching and defense wins championships. If Baltimore picks up Burnett they certainly have the strongest starting rotation in the division. They might have it even without him. Their bullpen is certainly better than Boston’s and if you look at the entire relief corps you would have to say they best the Yankees as well. Beyond Gordon and Rivera who does Torre have confidence in when the game is on the line? Who would you call if you were in his shoes?

Which of the three eastern contenders has the best defensive infield? Which has the most team speed? Which has the best lineup once Javy Lopez comes back in a week or so? This team has suffered through one major injury after another to key players only to continue to hold their ground.

I can’t believe the O’s are getting so little respect. Maybe it’s because of their recent history of getting out of the box quick only to find themselves out by ten games in September. I don’t know. Maybe it’s because everyone is so brainwashed from the talking heads and countless ESPN prime time Red Sox/Yankee telecasts to think anyone else can swing a bat in the American League East.

Whatever the reason, all I know is while the Red Sox are -160 to win the east at BetWWTS and the Yankees are +120 the Orioles, (who are a whopping half game back), are 10/1. I like those odds…I like their chances ….and like them so much I took them at 30/1 to win the pennant last night.

Jman… team that can get to 90 wins will find they are the Beast of the East.

Go O’s!!!

 

[Fishhead]

BOST
BALT
NY
TOR
TB

 

[tooran]

The respective records of NY, Bos and Balt are pretty much equal right now.

Down the stretch, a big intangible is players' experience in pressure games.

Most key Sox players have won a Series, except Clement.
Most key Yank players have won a Series, except ARod
No key O's players have won a Series, except Javy Lopez.

All other things being equal, this may make the difference in the East.

 

[VegasVic]

Experience counts for something...I'll give you that.

To me the biggest intangibles is what trades are made to all clubs before the deadline...who is acquired after through signings, and who stays healthy.

 

[cadillacman]

Imo, the team with the best bullpen will win. Considering the top 3, Boston, Balt and NYY I feel neither is very strong in that department. Speaking for today, a slight edge would go to the Yanks, then Baltimore second. The Sox need pen help in the worse way. That is their only weakness imo.