With the non-entry of Harlan's Hello now, I literally can't find any other speed in the race. Shackleford will get a easy lead no doubt. I just wonder what this will do to the rest of the field since a lot of the popular choices like AK, Nehro, MOH, and Brilliant Speed come from way back. Thankfully, they do have that extra 1/4th mile to try and run him down since his pedigree should be starting to limit him - hes as gutsy as they come though. (But how much did those last 2 races take out of him?)
I see 2 horses that could possibly show some speed early and put some pressure on Shackleford. Prime Cut has been up close in all 4 of his route races and Ruler On Ice with blinkers added could show more speed from post #3. But i agree with Jake and 11back that even if Shackleford gets an easy lead, I dont see him lasting in the stretch run...
I copied this from a horse racing board and it may be the reason your looking for.
In Belmont Stakes wagering history there have only been five winners that had dosage numbers higher than 4.00. And only 5 in the last 25 years have had a DI higher than 3.00 This is bad news for Nehro.
Dating back to 1997
2010 Drosselmeyer 1.75
2009 Summer Bird 2.56
2008 Da Tara 2.43
2007 Rags to Riches 3.00
2006 Jazil 3.00
2005 Afleet Alex 2.11
2004 Birdstone 1.77
2003 Empire Maker 1.88
2002 Sarava 4.50
2001 Point Given 3.00
2000 Commendable 5.00
1999 Lemon Drop Kid 2.62
1998 Victory Gallop 3.00
1997 Touch Gold 1.82
Master of Hounds (1.07)
Stay Thirsty (2.25)
Ruler on Ice (2.56)
Santiva (1.67)
Brilliant Speed (1.72)
Nehro (4.33)
Monznon (3.40)
Prime Cut (1.44)
Animal Kingdom (1.67)
Mucho Macho Man (2.43)
Isn't He Pefect (2.06)
Shackelford (3.62)
Shack still scares me, any front runner who can relax may go further then we think.
First off, I didn't ask for a reason, I asked for his reason. And if this is his reason, then maybe he needs to look at 11back's thread and what I posted there about horses that have run all TC races and how many of them have won the Belmont when doing this. Only 3(Afleet Alex, Point Given and Easy Goer) that we can come up with have done this in the last 32 years. So basically, what I am saying is if he is using reasoning like this, why would he be on MMM when history is definitely against him also. So, I am guessing that this is not his reason for tossing Nehro.
As far as Shack goes, if he couldn't handle 1 1/4 miles in the derby on the front end in a slow pace race, what makes you think he can last 1 1/2 miles?
As far as Shack goes, if he couldn't handle 1 1/4 miles in the derby on the front end in a slow pace race, what makes you think he can last 1 1/2 miles?
I think Mucho macho Man will be much closer to the pace possibly sitting 2nd or 3rd. Just worked a bullet drill on June 5th and the switch to Ramon tells me they are gonna be prominent early.
Ultimately I think it comes down to Shackleford, Animal Kingdom and one at a price Master of Hounds. Those will be the 3 I use in the pick 4.
Ultimately I think it comes down to Shackleford, Animal Kingdom and one at a price Master of Hounds. Those will be the 3 I use in the pick 4.
The #12 hole means nothing in the 1 & 1/2 mile Belmont. With the track being a 1 & 1/2 oval, Shackelford should have no trouble taking an easy lead. In the Preakness he ran a pressured 22:8 first quarter and still won by two at a 1 & 3/16 over Animal Kingdom who wasn't gaining anymore ground on him late as he flattened in the stretch.
Nehro does not like to win..he has never actually won a big race. I dont see him improving at all and will be overplayed as a so called fresh horse..
OMT, no one is questioning his ability to get an easy lead. The question is can he last for the mile and a half. He was on the lead in the derby with very slow fractions and couldn't last. So, why would anyone think he can last going another 2 furlongs against most of the same horses? Hey, if he wins, I'll be the first to tip my hat to him and offer congratulations to anyone that plays him. But I don't see it happening...
Nobody is going with him. He will be on the lead that no one wants. That will destroy Shackleford's chances, as he runs so much better right off the pace. In here, he will be on the lead not by choice, but by pace. He can't hold this horse off the lead, as fighting him, will only diminish his chances of being second or third, because he won't win!
Fat Harry
Fat Harry
