Re: Ace-Ace (Exbookie) Thread for NFL season week 1
Contest between ME and the Shrink
My 3 picks
2 points on GB-3.5
1 point on NO-13
1 point on Cinn 42.5
My Hilton Picks
Sf+6.5
Dal -6
GB-3.5
NO-13
Minn -4
My PIcks with Money for week 1
$2000.00 Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Denver at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I think that this number is a shade high here for a Week 1 game. Denver’s starting quarterback situation is still very uncertain. Kyle Orton has a dislocated finger and is going to try to play. But if he re-injures the finger or is ineffective than Denver will have no choice but to try to pound the ball on the ground. They will likely try that anyway. We don’t know what the Broncos are going to do with Brandon Marshall and I think that the Bengals offense is an equally large question mark because of their offensive line. I just don’t expect either team to be sharp and there are too many question marks here to think that either team will come out and be very sharp offensively.
$500.00 Take #457 Philadelphia (-1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I think that it is all starting to come together for the Eagles. They are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and are ready to put everything that they worked on this preseason into practice. They won’t have to worry about the Mike Vick distraction this week and they are getting Brian Westbrook back. There are just too many weapons on this Eagles offense against an up-and-down Panthers offense. The Eagles had the No. 3 defense in the league last year and I think that they can hold down a Panthers offense that did not look good this preseason. The Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
$500.00 Take #469 Dallas (-6) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I’m following the large line movement on this game. Dallas has jumped from -3 to -6 on this line and I think that there is good reason for that. Coach Wade Phillips and a lot of the Cowboys know that this is their last chance to try to make a deep playoff push here. I think that without the off-field distractions that have held them down over the past two years that they will actually be a better team. They won by 20 in a similar game last year on the road against the Browns. Here they are facing a Tampa Bay team that is rebuilding and one that I don’t think will have enough to slow the Cowboys down.
$2500.00 Take #478 Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
This is my Game of Month. Green Bay starts the season at home against the Bears and I think that they are going to blow out their big rivals. Green Bay is a team that lost a lot of close games last year and I think all of that has helped to make them a better overall team this year. The Packers have been one of the best teams this preseason and they look like they have made the right move by making the switch to the 3-4 defense. Chicago has been up and down this preseason and they are putting a lot on the arm of Jay Cutler. This is his first game in Lambeau and the last time the Bears were here they lost 37-3. Green Bay has dominated this series. They are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings and I think that they cover once more. I have been in contact with a lot of sharp bettors and they have this pegged as their top game.
$500.00 Take #468 New Orleans (-13) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
Detroit is coming off the only 0-16 season in NFL history and now they are going on the road with a rookie quarterback. New Orleans beat the Lions on the road 42-7 last year and I think that they might even be stronger this time around. Detroit’s defense did not look good this preseason and Drew Brees and his offense should have a big day against the Lions. Detroit will have to wait another week to try to break their winless streak.
$800.00 Take #471 San Francisco (+6.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I’m trailing the line movement on this game. The defending NFC champions started as a full touchdown favorite. But the line has gotten off of that key number of 7 over the last week or so which tells me that there is a reverse line movement going on. The Niners only lost by five points last year in their trip to Arizona and I think that this game will be much more low scoring. This game should be decided by a field goal and our points should hold up.
alway bet at your level
best to all
Ace-Ace
Contest between ME and the Shrink
My 3 picks
2 points on GB-3.5
1 point on NO-13
1 point on Cinn 42.5
My Hilton Picks
Sf+6.5
Dal -6
GB-3.5
NO-13
Minn -4
My PIcks with Money for week 1
$2000.00 Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Denver at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I think that this number is a shade high here for a Week 1 game. Denver’s starting quarterback situation is still very uncertain. Kyle Orton has a dislocated finger and is going to try to play. But if he re-injures the finger or is ineffective than Denver will have no choice but to try to pound the ball on the ground. They will likely try that anyway. We don’t know what the Broncos are going to do with Brandon Marshall and I think that the Bengals offense is an equally large question mark because of their offensive line. I just don’t expect either team to be sharp and there are too many question marks here to think that either team will come out and be very sharp offensively.
$500.00 Take #457 Philadelphia (-1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I think that it is all starting to come together for the Eagles. They are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and are ready to put everything that they worked on this preseason into practice. They won’t have to worry about the Mike Vick distraction this week and they are getting Brian Westbrook back. There are just too many weapons on this Eagles offense against an up-and-down Panthers offense. The Eagles had the No. 3 defense in the league last year and I think that they can hold down a Panthers offense that did not look good this preseason. The Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
$500.00 Take #469 Dallas (-6) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I’m following the large line movement on this game. Dallas has jumped from -3 to -6 on this line and I think that there is good reason for that. Coach Wade Phillips and a lot of the Cowboys know that this is their last chance to try to make a deep playoff push here. I think that without the off-field distractions that have held them down over the past two years that they will actually be a better team. They won by 20 in a similar game last year on the road against the Browns. Here they are facing a Tampa Bay team that is rebuilding and one that I don’t think will have enough to slow the Cowboys down.
$2500.00 Take #478 Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
This is my Game of Month. Green Bay starts the season at home against the Bears and I think that they are going to blow out their big rivals. Green Bay is a team that lost a lot of close games last year and I think all of that has helped to make them a better overall team this year. The Packers have been one of the best teams this preseason and they look like they have made the right move by making the switch to the 3-4 defense. Chicago has been up and down this preseason and they are putting a lot on the arm of Jay Cutler. This is his first game in Lambeau and the last time the Bears were here they lost 37-3. Green Bay has dominated this series. They are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings and I think that they cover once more. I have been in contact with a lot of sharp bettors and they have this pegged as their top game.
$500.00 Take #468 New Orleans (-13) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
Detroit is coming off the only 0-16 season in NFL history and now they are going on the road with a rookie quarterback. New Orleans beat the Lions on the road 42-7 last year and I think that they might even be stronger this time around. Detroit’s defense did not look good this preseason and Drew Brees and his offense should have a big day against the Lions. Detroit will have to wait another week to try to break their winless streak.
$800.00 Take #471 San Francisco (+6.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I’m trailing the line movement on this game. The defending NFC champions started as a full touchdown favorite. But the line has gotten off of that key number of 7 over the last week or so which tells me that there is a reverse line movement going on. The Niners only lost by five points last year in their trip to Arizona and I think that this game will be much more low scoring. This game should be decided by a field goal and our points should hold up.
alway bet at your level
best to all
Ace-Ace
