Overrated: Michigan State
Sparty will be given a lot of hype coming into this season because of their amazing comeback win over Baylor in their bowl game. Maybe a little too much hype considering they lose 6 starters on offense and will have an inexperienced secondary. They had problems last year on defense because of their inexperienced linebackers. I think it could be just as bad this year in the defensive backfield. I still like coach Dantonio and this team and their future. But I think Sparty takes a step back this year.
Underrated: Oklahoma State OSU had the youngest team in the country last year. And on top of that Gundy had some key injuries that he had to deal with, including his top two QB's. Ever since his top prospect Wes Lunt transferred, Gundy was left behind the eight ball going forward. He basically got some very mediocre play out of the QB's he had left in camp. But thanks to those QB's getting hurt he's found another good QB in Mason Rudolph, who was a freshman last year when he took over the job midseason. I think he'll still have the sophomore jinx on his back. But the big difference with the Pokes compared to last year is they have 16 starters returning to pick up the slack. Plus I've always kind of liked these teams who were on the verge of a disastrous season and suddenly find a second wind. Remember, OSU was on the verge of going 5-7 when they went to OU and won that game by a miracle punt return for a TD. And then went to their bowl game as dogs against UW and won with Rudolph throwing for 300 yards. With a young team like this, I think there is a great chance that the good play carries over to this season. I'll go out on a limb here and say OSU has a decent chance to win or get a share of the conference title this season.
If it's top 10, agreed. Top 20 is about where they are, imo. Just read an article about possible tweaks to the MSU defense given the Baylor game. Basically MSU is too big and slow at LB and DB's to contend with a spread team, exibits Oregon and Baylor. One of the things they can do is get faster DB's and LB's and alter it closer to what Ohio St runs, where the LB's shade to defend the pass first then rally to run support. Ohio St has better talent, so easier said than done, but MSU's defense really suits the majority of the B10...not as much nationally. As is for MSU, the spread O takes away the linebackers inside coverage responsibility with the run fake and gives the slot receivers more options vs slower safeties. Hence the trend to defend zone offense by manning up and blitz with the LB's since they are often out of the play to begin with.
I think Pitt is really underrated. Offensively they have the best WR/RB combo in ACC, a pretty competent QB that played well in 2H of 2014, and a decent Oline. Defensively they brought in maybe the best defensive coordinator in NCAAF so he will immediately upgrade that horrible 2014 group. His hire from FIU has been praised nationally so it looks like the coaches on that side of the ball is a huge upgrade but the talent still lacking. I expect them to challenge for ACC Coastal
overrated? not sure yet. Right now I'd probably say Alabama or Michigan State. Tide are scaring me at QB and will have a tough time filling Cooper's production although Robert Foster is having one hell of a spring at WR and OJ Howard ready for a breakout year at TE. Plenty of talent and a lot of time to get a qb rating so I'll also circle Michigan State.
MSU has lived off defense for years and without Narduzzi that side of the ball will take a step back. Cook put up decent stats last year (24/8) but was really average, or below average, against any half decent team. Consider that his raw QB rating was sub-70 against Oregon, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland, Penn St, and Baylor but 90+ against Jack State, Eastern Mich, Wyoming, and Indiana.
overrated? not sure yet. Right now I'd probably say Alabama or Michigan State. Tide are scaring me at QB and will have a tough time filling Cooper's production although Robert Foster is having one hell of a spring at WR and OJ Howard ready for a breakout year at TE. Plenty of talent and a lot of time to get a qb rating so I'll also circle Michigan State.
MSU has lived off defense for years and without Narduzzi that side of the ball will take a step back. Cook put up decent stats last year (24/8) but was really average, or below average, against any half decent team. Consider that his raw QB rating was sub-70 against Oregon, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland, Penn St, and Baylor but 90+ against Jack State, Eastern Mich, Wyoming, and Indiana.
I was thinking more along the lines of top 25. But by overrated I'm more concerned with the line than I am the win. There aren't many teams in the Big 10 who can beat MSU, but I think there will be some much closer games this season. I read that Baylor/MSU article a few days ago. Baylor is just a tough team to play, even when you see them every season. MSU didn't have that bad of a gameplan against Baylor because you have to pick your poison with this team. You know they are going to score on you. But do you elect to try and stop their passing game or running game? MSU elected to try and take away a part of their game. In this case it was the run. And they did a good job of it. The gamble was that Petty and Baylor won't be able to hit enough down the field plays in the passing game to outscore them over the course of the entire game. In the end that strategy actually worked-barely. Taking away the run also meant Baylor couldn't milk the clock when they needed to. That was ultimately their downfall when MSU started their frantic 4th quarter comeback. They were still kind of lucky to win the game. The missed FG bouncing off the upright could have been the difference. And if Baylor had the quality depth on the defensive line as an Ohio State it also would have been a win for da Bears. But quality spread teams like Baylor are going to continue to give Dantonio problems until he gets things figured out. Easier said than done.
Overrated? Easy. Baylor. They are unable to defeat quality teams. Last season they lost to West Virginia and Michigan State. They have no defense and their HC refuses to play any caliber non-con teams. I expect them to lose 2-3 games this season and be laughed out of the Playoff picture.
Underrated. Tough, but I have to go with Missouri. The team that everyone loves to ignore. All they have done is win the SEC East two years in a row. Are they a Playoff team? Probably not, but you can make a ton of money by playing them (19-4 ATS in two years).
Underrated. Tough, but I have to go with Missouri. The team that everyone loves to ignore. All they have done is win the SEC East two years in a row. Are they a Playoff team? Probably not, but you can make a ton of money by playing them (19-4 ATS in two years).
I wouldn't be surprised to see tcu or Baylor bust...tcu won so many close games last yr...will be interesting to see bay new qb...Baylor will have an extra month to get ready for the season since they don't play any oc games....then throw in easy wins..vs..wvu,Kansas,I ts...and they have 4-5 weeks of games...
Two teams come to mind as being a bit underrated and they will play each other this season.
Southern Cal - Depth is slowly improving after scholarship sanctions and the latest recruiting class was a strong one. Senior quarterback Cody Kessler is expected to have a big year especially considering the offensive is stacked and growing in experience. Tons of talent returning even with the loss of Leonard Williams, Nelson Agholor and Buck Allen gone. My main concern with the Trojans is their head coach...just not sold on the guy.
Notre Dame - The Irish roster is talented and experienced with 20 of 22 players who started the bowl game back. Good play from one of the quarterbacks could put Notre Dame in the playoffs.
Southern Cal - Depth is slowly improving after scholarship sanctions and the latest recruiting class was a strong one. Senior quarterback Cody Kessler is expected to have a big year especially considering the offensive is stacked and growing in experience. Tons of talent returning even with the loss of Leonard Williams, Nelson Agholor and Buck Allen gone. My main concern with the Trojans is their head coach...just not sold on the guy.
Notre Dame - The Irish roster is talented and experienced with 20 of 22 players who started the bowl game back. Good play from one of the quarterbacks could put Notre Dame in the playoffs.
I'm not at all sold yet on Seth Russell at Baylor. His role last year was mainly cleanup duty against some very bad teams. The one game that Petty missed was the Texas Tech game. And Russell was just 8-17 passing in that game against what was arguably the worst division one defense in the country. Petty was something pretty special. He could throw the ball from sideline to sideline on a rope and the defenders still couldn't get to it. Not very many QB's can do that, and very few coaches would allow a QB to throw a dangerous a pass like that. The only way you could beat him was if you could get to him with the rush. Your WV team was the only team that I saw all year that successfully blitzed Baylor and got to Petty. It helps if you can get them on the road in some bad weather situations. Having to travel to KSU, OSU in late November and to TCU is going to be hard on a rookie QB. Plus their schedule is back loaded like it was two years ago. They play KSU, OSU, OU, TCU & Texas all back to back without a bye week. They'll drop a game or two out of that bunch and drop out of the top 10. Why Baylor doesn't schedule better OOC games I still don't know. Knucklehead comes on here and reminds us of their pud schedule all the time. But playing a little tougher schedule isn't just good for national rankings, it also prepares you better for conference play. Not wanting to see your starters get hurt is one thing. But not playing your starters for full 60 minute games in the first month of the season is terrible preparation for those tough dogfights they are going to have on the road. In the last 2 weeks of the season they will have to play TCU and Texas. Barring injuries I expect both Texas and TCU to be playing their best defense by the time these games roll around. Playing a revenge minded TCU on the road after playing a gauntlet of Big 12 opponents is going to be a tough task for Briles to overcome.
Sark has two years to get USC into the playoffs or he is in hot water. Max Browne, the Red Shirt Soph. QB is better than Kessler, so there will be no excuse for Sark in 2016 when Kessler leaves. This year USC goes to Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon. They get those three at home in 2016. They also open the season in Dallas against Alabama in a game that will set the tone for both teams.
Notre Dame still has big QB problems. Golson is probably more of a distration than a help. The Irish would be smart to just cut him loose and go with what they have.
Notre Dame still has big QB problems. Golson is probably more of a distration than a help. The Irish would be smart to just cut him loose and go with what they have.
If Holgs decides on a starting QB (Crest or Howard?) and sticks with him and stops tinkering with his offense midseason, WV could be pretty good. They'll have one of the best defenses in the conference. I guess we'll know more about the QB situation when fall practices roll around. If he waits until the first week to name a starter, that's probably not a good sign that he likes what he sees. The biggest problem that WV has to overcome is their schedule. OU, Baylor, KSU and TCU all on the road is going to be tuff!
West Virginia has a tough away schedule that could see them losing 4 out of 5 road games. They should have no problems at home, unless Maryland plays tough. Anything under 8 wins would have to be considered a poor season. I am still not sure about Holgorsen at all. West Virginia should be able to do better.
If Sarkisian doesn't kick Alabama's ass into the dirt, they will be crying to hire back 'Bamas OC in the person of Lane Kiffin to set things straight. I mentioned before that all Kiffin needs is a shot at running the Trojan team without one hand behind his back as was the situation in his first go around at USC. He is twice the leader that Sarkisian is and he has a record to prove it, especially with the offenses he creates. Nick Saban thinks so too.
Overrated: Alabama
With the way Bama reloads every year, if they were in any other conference they would never make this list. But the SEC West is tuff, and I can see them struggling like we haven't seen in the last decade. I'm not at all sold on their QB situation. I think it's a mess. And for whoever wins the job, it will be made tougher by not having Amari Cooper to throw to anymore. Or T.J. Yeldon to hand off to. Plus the entire offense being gone except for a couple starters is also a huge obstacle to overcome. My feeling is in today's football it isn't as easy as it once was to just plug and play.. You really need to have your stuff together to keep up with today's offenses. But lets be real here guys, a bad season for Bama is 2 losses. And that's about what I expect, 2 or maybe 3 losses. But I think they are going to have a devil of a time trying to cover the spread this year. Which is all that I'm concerned about.
Alabama was only 5-9 against the spread last year. I seldom bet Bama because you are battling public perception, plus Saban seems to care less about the line. He doesn't like to run the score up on teams, especially teams where he's favored by 45 or 50 points. Alabama will be favored in every regular season game this season. The defense can be scary good. The offense will have to catch up in a hurry but plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Regardless who plays quarterback, the offense will be just fine.
Two teams I believe will see a big drop off covering the spread are TCU (11-2) and Georgia Tech (10-4). Public all over TCU and Tech ain't going to slip up on books this year like they did last season.
Two teams I believe will see a big drop off covering the spread are TCU (11-2) and Georgia Tech (10-4). Public all over TCU and Tech ain't going to slip up on books this year like they did last season.
Clover, completely agree about TCU and GT. I think they struggle much more this year in covering the spread. TCU, La Tech and Western Michigan are the only 3 teams who made it to double digit wins against the spread last season. I did a study on teams who win 10 or more games ATS, and the next year less than 20% of them even made it to 7 or more wins ATS the next year. So I expect a drop off from TCU on that front. Like I said before, I think they will be in a lot of dogfights this year, and because of scheduling, the Big 12 is more wide open than people think. With a round robin format it pays to have a favorable conference schedule in the Big 12. And TCU's overall schedule will be tougher this season with 5 games being played outside of the state of Texas. I saw somewhere where they are opening as a 20 point favorite at Minnesota. I know Minny lost some key players, but that's a lot of points to give for a team who seldom (never) travels that far to play their games.
