Where is the Value?

[wilheim]

Right now two major books have very different lines on the Colts-Pats game.

Book A Patriots -3 -117 take back +3 +107.
Book B Patriots -3.5 +105 take bace +3.5 -125.

Which line offers more value in both cases, by thay I mean playing the fav. or the dog.

wil.

 

[Fishhead]

Wil- For all practical purposes these are practically identical.

Hint- A 3 point favorite will win by exactly 3 points approximently 9.5% of the time.

Do your math from there and you will see how close these are.

 

[wilheim]

Fish - so they are really not very different at all then. Hmmmm.


Thanks, wil.

 

[JudgeWapner]

They are pretty close Wil,personally I would take a.

 

[wilheim]

Judge, at the risk of sounding dumb, what side of A?



wil.

 

[Fishhead]

If we knew a 3 point favorite won by exactly 3 points EXACTLY 10% of the time, then a 20 cent difference would be PERFECT.

In my extensive research of the NFL however, I have come to the conclusion that it is slightly less than than 10%.

About 9.35% using my formula.

I personally use my math based on the 9.35% figure that I have derived at.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Wil,3-17.I like the Pats.

 

[wilheim]

Judge I do also. Looks like 3 -110 is history. Generally I will look for some way to get down at -2.5, but in this case laying the 3 minus as little juice as possible is my plan. If 3 is a push then so be it.

BOL. wil.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Wil,my thinking exactly.Already hit it.If it drops to 3 flat will hit it again.

 

[blueedwards]

guys, what do you think about the total? i am on the under 43.5 (bowmans).

 

[JudgeWapner]

Blue,don't have a strong opinion there,would lean towards the under.I think you may see a better # as you get closer to game time.

 

[wilheim]

Blue - hey pal. The first thing is I don't want to get cought up in the weather debate regarding totals. From what I gather it will be warming up on Sunday to the low 30's by game time, with a slight chance of snow showers. That said, I think 43.5 is a big number for this game Colts or not. Look for the Pats to play close to the vest with their short passing game, throwing in runs if they find room. They will play to keep Manning and the Colts Offense on the sidelines as much as possible. On D. their bend but don't break style should cause the Colts to go the long drive route if they want to score. The enormity of the game, with the SB on the line, will make both coaches more conservative. Plus the Pats have given up only 36 points in their last 7 home games.

BOL. wil.

 

[SportSavant]

15% reload/new account Bonus aswell as -3 -115 on the colts...

intertops

 

[PatPatriot]

Look...I am going to give you guys a little lesson on this game...Sports Interaction has a Colts +6 Pats Pick special...5Dimes is having a 9.5 point tease special...Whats that tell ya?
They are not leavinng a middle open because they like us., teases will be decimated or a non factor.
It tells you the game ain't going to be anywhere near the point spread..blowout 1 way or another..the game will not be within 2 tds maybe 13...Pats 27 Colts 13.

 

[Mike21]

If you like the Pats (and I personally do alot),I would wait. It looks like the public is going to be all over Indy, and they will be betting late.