Here ya go Kid, looks like it's been a rough season for Steely backers thus far:
Each week during the 2016 college football season I'll offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, along with a handful of other key matchups to keep an eye on.
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) when picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread. The past two weeks have been rough here with my Insider picks and have dropped the straight-up record to 44-26 (63 percent) and the ATS record to just 26-41-2 (39 percent). On the Friday ESPN podcast, the record this past week was 2-2 and now stands at 14-13-1.
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning. (+) indicates a pick in which Phil Steele is taking an underdog with the points.
[h=3]No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (-13.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks[/h]Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2
[h=1]EDITOR'S PICKS[/h]
Both teams have played Georgia and Texas A&M. While Tennessee caught both foes' A-games, South Carolina got those two opponents just off of big games -- and A&M had Tennessee on deck. Take away A.J. Turner's 75-yard run on the first play against A&M, and the Gamecocks rushed for only 116 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Tennessee rushed for 409 yards in their meetings with the same two teams.
The Volunteers have Joshua Dobbs and a super set of wide receivers, while South Carolina has true freshman Jake Bentley, who should be in his senior year of high school. His only action has been against Massachusetts after just taking his redshirt off. Mississippi State was just off a loss when the Bulldogs took on South Carolina, and they led 24-0 at the half with a yardage advantage of 324-90.
The Volunteers play their best ball down the stretch and last year won their final six games by an average of 22 points per game. Tennessee gets their stretch run started with a solid win this week.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 30, South Carolina 13
[h=3]No. 3 Clemson Tigers at No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (+4)[/h]Saturday, 8:00 ET, ABC
At the start of the year, this figured to be possibly be one of the top two games in college football, but that has been downgraded with Florida State already having lost two games. The Tigers have not looked as unstoppable as they did in the second half of last year. Over the final 11 games of 2016, their lowest offensive total was 512 yards. This year, they've failed to top 500 yards four times and have failed to top 26 points three times. They beat Auburn and Troy by six points apiece and needed a missed 33-yard field goal attempt by NC State to get to overtime and ultimately prevail.
Last year, a young Florida State team led Clemson 10-6 at the half in Death Valley and had the ball while trailing by three late in the fourth quarter. This year's Seminoles are more experienced and at home, where they've beaten Clemson in 11 of their past 12 meetings -- including four straight. The Seminoles have had my No. 2 toughest schedule in the country and gain 121 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average.
Defensively, Florida State is holding its opponents to 62 yards per game below their average. The Seminoles might have been buying their media hype earlier in the season, but now their backs are against the wall and they're a home underdog for the first time since 2011. I will call for them to play their best game of the year.
ATS pick: Florida State (+)
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 30
[h=3]No. 15 Auburn Tigers (-4.5) at Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Saturday, 7:15 ET, SEC Network
The "buy" sign went on for Auburn when they got past a very talented LSU team at home and Sean White was cemented as the starting quarterback. Auburn had 388 yards versus that LSU defense, the most that squad has allowed all year. Four of Auburn's opponents have allowed season-highs in yards when playing them.
Meanwhile, their defense is holding opponents to 107 yards below their season average -- including holding two teams to season lows and three others to their second-lowest outputs. Auburn led Ole Miss on the road 35-0 at the half with 335 yards to the Rebels' 91. Last week they beat Arkansas 56-3 and outgained the Razorbacks 632-215. Ole Miss has a banged-up defensive front seven and has allowed 269 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.
Despite White having just 113 yards, low for an Auburn quarterback, the Tigers rank No. 3 in the country in rushing. They're averaging 303 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. Auburn should gain close to 300 yards rushing and certainly have the better defense and special teams. Auburn's defense is allowing 14.1 points per game, which is even better than Alabama's (14.9).
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 34, Ole Miss 24
[h=3]No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (+23.5)[/h]Saturday 12:00 ET, ESPN
Coach Jim Harbaugh was quoted at Stanford saying, "We're going to win with character, but we're also going to win with cruelty." This is his chance to step on a rival that has had a lot more recent success overall, and has beaten the Wolverines in eight of their past nine meetings. Michigan State has lost five in a row, and my computer has Michigan winning this game 45-11. Harbaugh took no mercy on a banged-up Penn State team, rolling to a 49-10 win, and in their only road game the Wolverines beat Rutgers 78-0. All those facts point to a blowout. However, I'm still going to take the points here.
The Spartans were favored in all five of their losses and find themselves an underdog for just the second time this year. This is just the third time this decade they've been a home dog, and they have pulled upsets on the other two occasions. The past 12 times Michigan State has been a dog, they've gone 10-2 ATS -- with eight outright upsets, including earlier this year against Notre Dame! My computer also forecasts Michigan outgaining the Spartans only 445-247, which is basically a 32.5-18 margin.
This is a rivalry game, and the Spartans' season has been abysmal, but they will give their best effort of the season here -- by far -- and make it closer than anyone expects.
ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Michigan 35, Michigan State 17
[h=3]No. 8 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns (+3)[/h]Saturday 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Baylor is ranked No. 8 in the country and has outscored opponents by a 44-17 margin on average. The Bears are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Longhorns in December. Texas stumbles in at 3-4, having lost four of its past five games. With those facts, how is Baylor only a field goal favorite? Well, bookmakers didn't build Las Vegas into what it is with dumb odds, I suppose.
Texas has my No. 14 toughest schedule, while Baylor checks in at No. 116. Despite Texas allowing 443 yards per game, they're holding their foes to 2 yards below their season average. Baylor's defense allows just 320 yards per game, yet that's only 41 yards less than their opponents' season average. The offenses are actually close, and Texas has the special teams edge. Texas has their backs to the wall and can throw caution to the wind.
This time of year the unbeaten teams start playing with added pressure and distractions. There's a lot of playoff conversation and what-ifs being tossed around. I'll call for the Bears' unbeaten season to come to an end in an upset.
ATS pick: Texas (upset)
Score: Texas 38, Baylor 37
[h=3]No. 24 Penn State Nittany Lions (-11) at Purdue Boilermakers[/h]Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2
Penn State was dead in the water against Ohio State, down 21-7 with the white-out crowd quieted. They drove 90 yards in just five plays to pull within seven early in the fourth quarter and then returned a blocked field goal attempt 60 yards for a touchdown and upset the then-No. 2 Buckeyes. When going through Penn State's season last week, I knew everyone remembered their 49-10 loss to Michigan, but that was their only bad game of the year, and it remained that way.
One key to last week's upset was the linebacking corps. Against Michigan at one point, they were down their top five linebackers. Last week they got back starters Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell, and while coach James Franklin said they probably wouldn't play the entirety, they combined for 33 tackles. It has taken a while for the new offense to take hold, but it's averaged 104 yards above what Penn State's past three opponents have allowed.
Purdue's defense is allowing Big Ten foes 108 yards above their season average. Two weeks ago, the Boilermakers trailed Iowa at home 42-14 after three quarters and the Hawkeyes put in their backups. They then fired coach Darrell Hazell and played with an extra bounce in their step as a large underdog against a Nebraska team that had a huge game on deck.
Penn State has my No. 11 toughest schedule, and Purdue sits at No. 74. While Penn State is off a big upset win, the team is gaining confidence and has both the better offense and large advantages on defense and special teams. The Nittany Lions won't let up in the fourth quarter like Iowa did.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 38, Purdue 21
[h=3]Stanford Cardinal (-5.5) at Arizona Wildcats[/h]Saturday, 11:00 PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Last week, Stanford got the return of Christian McCaffrey. While he wasn't 100 percent healthy, he had 92 yards rushing and added 26 on the receiving end. He will be healthier this week.
Stanford has faced my toughest schedule, going against Kansas State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, Notre Dame and a much-improved Colorado. Arizona is the weakest team the Cardinal will have faced and, at 4-3, this Stanford team really needs a win. A fumble on first-and-goal at Colorado's 4-yard line in the fourth quarter cost them that game. All four of Stanford's wins have been by at least seven points.
Arizona has beaten only Hawaii and Grambling State and is 0-4 in Pac-12 play, having lost those games by an average score of 41-22 and being outgained by 84 yards per game. They're fresh off a bye, and Stanford is playing for an eighth straight week. Stanford has a massive edge on defense (No. 9 vs. No. 105) and on special teams (No. 25 vs. No. 87). They should get the win they so desperately need.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 28, Arizona 17
Each week during the 2016 college football season I'll offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, along with a handful of other key matchups to keep an eye on.
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) when picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread. The past two weeks have been rough here with my Insider picks and have dropped the straight-up record to 44-26 (63 percent) and the ATS record to just 26-41-2 (39 percent). On the Friday ESPN podcast, the record this past week was 2-2 and now stands at 14-13-1.
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning. (+) indicates a pick in which Phil Steele is taking an underdog with the points.
[h=1]EDITOR'S PICKS[/h]
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[h=2]What a legalized U.S. sports betting market could look like[/h]Experts almost unanimously agree that legalized sports betting in the U.S. is "inevitable." In Part 1 of Chalk's series, we examine how we might get there and what the market could look like.
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[h=2]College football betting look: Sell Wisconsin[/h]Which college football teams have seen their stocks rise or fall? A check-in on the over-performing Badgers, plus breakdowns of intriguing Week 9 matchups.
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[h=2]Week 9 college football lines[/h]Clemson is favored at Florida State while Michigan State is a double-digit home underdog in its clash with Michigan. ESPN Chalk offers the Week 9 lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Both teams have played Georgia and Texas A&M. While Tennessee caught both foes' A-games, South Carolina got those two opponents just off of big games -- and A&M had Tennessee on deck. Take away A.J. Turner's 75-yard run on the first play against A&M, and the Gamecocks rushed for only 116 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Tennessee rushed for 409 yards in their meetings with the same two teams.
The Volunteers have Joshua Dobbs and a super set of wide receivers, while South Carolina has true freshman Jake Bentley, who should be in his senior year of high school. His only action has been against Massachusetts after just taking his redshirt off. Mississippi State was just off a loss when the Bulldogs took on South Carolina, and they led 24-0 at the half with a yardage advantage of 324-90.
The Volunteers play their best ball down the stretch and last year won their final six games by an average of 22 points per game. Tennessee gets their stretch run started with a solid win this week.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 30, South Carolina 13
At the start of the year, this figured to be possibly be one of the top two games in college football, but that has been downgraded with Florida State already having lost two games. The Tigers have not looked as unstoppable as they did in the second half of last year. Over the final 11 games of 2016, their lowest offensive total was 512 yards. This year, they've failed to top 500 yards four times and have failed to top 26 points three times. They beat Auburn and Troy by six points apiece and needed a missed 33-yard field goal attempt by NC State to get to overtime and ultimately prevail.
Last year, a young Florida State team led Clemson 10-6 at the half in Death Valley and had the ball while trailing by three late in the fourth quarter. This year's Seminoles are more experienced and at home, where they've beaten Clemson in 11 of their past 12 meetings -- including four straight. The Seminoles have had my No. 2 toughest schedule in the country and gain 121 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average.
Defensively, Florida State is holding its opponents to 62 yards per game below their average. The Seminoles might have been buying their media hype earlier in the season, but now their backs are against the wall and they're a home underdog for the first time since 2011. I will call for them to play their best game of the year.
ATS pick: Florida State (+)
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 30
The "buy" sign went on for Auburn when they got past a very talented LSU team at home and Sean White was cemented as the starting quarterback. Auburn had 388 yards versus that LSU defense, the most that squad has allowed all year. Four of Auburn's opponents have allowed season-highs in yards when playing them.
Meanwhile, their defense is holding opponents to 107 yards below their season average -- including holding two teams to season lows and three others to their second-lowest outputs. Auburn led Ole Miss on the road 35-0 at the half with 335 yards to the Rebels' 91. Last week they beat Arkansas 56-3 and outgained the Razorbacks 632-215. Ole Miss has a banged-up defensive front seven and has allowed 269 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.
Despite White having just 113 yards, low for an Auburn quarterback, the Tigers rank No. 3 in the country in rushing. They're averaging 303 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. Auburn should gain close to 300 yards rushing and certainly have the better defense and special teams. Auburn's defense is allowing 14.1 points per game, which is even better than Alabama's (14.9).
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 34, Ole Miss 24
Coach Jim Harbaugh was quoted at Stanford saying, "We're going to win with character, but we're also going to win with cruelty." This is his chance to step on a rival that has had a lot more recent success overall, and has beaten the Wolverines in eight of their past nine meetings. Michigan State has lost five in a row, and my computer has Michigan winning this game 45-11. Harbaugh took no mercy on a banged-up Penn State team, rolling to a 49-10 win, and in their only road game the Wolverines beat Rutgers 78-0. All those facts point to a blowout. However, I'm still going to take the points here.
The Spartans were favored in all five of their losses and find themselves an underdog for just the second time this year. This is just the third time this decade they've been a home dog, and they have pulled upsets on the other two occasions. The past 12 times Michigan State has been a dog, they've gone 10-2 ATS -- with eight outright upsets, including earlier this year against Notre Dame! My computer also forecasts Michigan outgaining the Spartans only 445-247, which is basically a 32.5-18 margin.
This is a rivalry game, and the Spartans' season has been abysmal, but they will give their best effort of the season here -- by far -- and make it closer than anyone expects.
ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Michigan 35, Michigan State 17
Baylor is ranked No. 8 in the country and has outscored opponents by a 44-17 margin on average. The Bears are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Longhorns in December. Texas stumbles in at 3-4, having lost four of its past five games. With those facts, how is Baylor only a field goal favorite? Well, bookmakers didn't build Las Vegas into what it is with dumb odds, I suppose.
Texas has my No. 14 toughest schedule, while Baylor checks in at No. 116. Despite Texas allowing 443 yards per game, they're holding their foes to 2 yards below their season average. Baylor's defense allows just 320 yards per game, yet that's only 41 yards less than their opponents' season average. The offenses are actually close, and Texas has the special teams edge. Texas has their backs to the wall and can throw caution to the wind.
This time of year the unbeaten teams start playing with added pressure and distractions. There's a lot of playoff conversation and what-ifs being tossed around. I'll call for the Bears' unbeaten season to come to an end in an upset.
ATS pick: Texas (upset)
Score: Texas 38, Baylor 37
Penn State was dead in the water against Ohio State, down 21-7 with the white-out crowd quieted. They drove 90 yards in just five plays to pull within seven early in the fourth quarter and then returned a blocked field goal attempt 60 yards for a touchdown and upset the then-No. 2 Buckeyes. When going through Penn State's season last week, I knew everyone remembered their 49-10 loss to Michigan, but that was their only bad game of the year, and it remained that way.
One key to last week's upset was the linebacking corps. Against Michigan at one point, they were down their top five linebackers. Last week they got back starters Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell, and while coach James Franklin said they probably wouldn't play the entirety, they combined for 33 tackles. It has taken a while for the new offense to take hold, but it's averaged 104 yards above what Penn State's past three opponents have allowed.
Purdue's defense is allowing Big Ten foes 108 yards above their season average. Two weeks ago, the Boilermakers trailed Iowa at home 42-14 after three quarters and the Hawkeyes put in their backups. They then fired coach Darrell Hazell and played with an extra bounce in their step as a large underdog against a Nebraska team that had a huge game on deck.
Penn State has my No. 11 toughest schedule, and Purdue sits at No. 74. While Penn State is off a big upset win, the team is gaining confidence and has both the better offense and large advantages on defense and special teams. The Nittany Lions won't let up in the fourth quarter like Iowa did.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 38, Purdue 21
Last week, Stanford got the return of Christian McCaffrey. While he wasn't 100 percent healthy, he had 92 yards rushing and added 26 on the receiving end. He will be healthier this week.
Stanford has faced my toughest schedule, going against Kansas State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, Notre Dame and a much-improved Colorado. Arizona is the weakest team the Cardinal will have faced and, at 4-3, this Stanford team really needs a win. A fumble on first-and-goal at Colorado's 4-yard line in the fourth quarter cost them that game. All four of Stanford's wins have been by at least seven points.
Arizona has beaten only Hawaii and Grambling State and is 0-4 in Pac-12 play, having lost those games by an average score of 41-22 and being outgained by 84 yards per game. They're fresh off a bye, and Stanford is playing for an eighth straight week. Stanford has a massive edge on defense (No. 9 vs. No. 105) and on special teams (No. 25 vs. No. 87). They should get the win they so desperately need.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 28, Arizona 17
ckid.... Preach!!!!! I could not have said it better. I live in NE Ohio where his operation was at one time headquartered. I could not believe I heard a Cleveland sports radio station devote a segment to his carnival barking earlier this football season. This is an example of his misdirection type marketing.... Northcoast's late phone plays and executive may go 1-3 and 0-2 on a particular weekend, the following week you will read "Our marquee and inside information plays went 5-2 this past weekend" when he really stinks it up he will throw his "small college plays " record at you, Then he'll mix in his College Totals play record LOL He has sooo many different titled plays on a given weekend I'm amazed he still garners media requests with his horrible record. He is indeed a clown!
