The majority of professional gamblers in my opinion simply reduce. However, some actually step away from it. I believe that you are better off reducing because by totally stepping away you might miss out on some great spots that will make you money. I would be interested in hearing other ideas here as I think I don't always make the right choice. I have even heard that some professional gamblers take a certain bankroll and throw it out per season and quit that sport if the money gets drained.
I'm a firm believer that one should NOT reduce or increase their wagering during any type of streak, whether it be a losing or winning one. If you're convinced you have an edge long-term, reducing is simply costing you profit in the long run. It's always been my belief that value is value is value.
Obviously you must correlate your bankroll and wager size so that you can withstand long losing streaks in order to do this.
If I gave you a 56% coin, with heads being a winner and tails being a loser, would you flip it any less if it had only come up heads 40 or the last 100? If your coin had a proven edge over time(i.e. 56%), there would be no need reduce the amount of flips, as it would only take away potential profits.
Obviously you must correlate your bankroll and wager size so that you can withstand long losing streaks in order to do this.
If I gave you a 56% coin, with heads being a winner and tails being a loser, would you flip it any less if it had only come up heads 40 or the last 100? If your coin had a proven edge over time(i.e. 56%), there would be no need reduce the amount of flips, as it would only take away potential profits.
I think making slight increases when running good makes sense and decreasing when running bad is the thing to do.
The problem with the above post is that it assumes your "edge" is the same at all times. But I definitely believe handicapping runs in streaks, and there are times when I can see the game perfectly and feel that I am really zoned. By the same token, there are other times when I don't feel like I could make a pick with a dartboard.
The problem with the above post is that it assumes your "edge" is the same at all times. But I definitely believe handicapping runs in streaks, and there are times when I can see the game perfectly and feel that I am really zoned. By the same token, there are other times when I don't feel like I could make a pick with a dartboard.
Losing streaks breed bad decisions in handicapping or possibly bad decisions in handicapping breed losing streaks. I feel the former is more likely than the latter in beginning a streak. As it continues however, the latter; the bad decisions take on a life of their own.
To use the world of sports itself as an analogy; a ballclub on a four game winning streak is a good bet to win its fifth. Conversely one on a losing streak, in most instances, is not to be bet on even if both are equally matched .500 ballclubs.
Why is that? We all know it is about confidence versus lack of confidence; playing loosely versus playing tight, possibly the decision making by pressured coaches/managers in addition to other factors which also come into play.
I cut back from 2% of bankroll to 1% of bankroll while carefully, I look at each wager. If I discern the cause of the losing streak to be simply an issue of bad luck, I continue on and likely return to 2%.
The easiest way to discern if it is just a luck factor is if upon review, my series of losses are found to be mostly bad beats decided by last minute or last second actions. If that is the case and my wins are easy covers, I'm still OK.
However when after a loss or a series of losses, I can clearly see that I made obvious bad capping decisions or God forbid started to chase; when I'm getting blown out in most games and my few wins are bad beats for those on the opposite side, I will find something else to do for a few days. Generally when this happens the feeling of my being mentally drained is also rather obvious to me.
Last summer I was so burned out that I took a month and a half off during the middle of bases season. I came back refreshed, strong and began to win again.
I strongly believe an annual vacation from the games we play is a necessity for most of us. The duration of the vacation or season during which one takes the break will of course differ from case to case.
To use the world of sports itself as an analogy; a ballclub on a four game winning streak is a good bet to win its fifth. Conversely one on a losing streak, in most instances, is not to be bet on even if both are equally matched .500 ballclubs.
Why is that? We all know it is about confidence versus lack of confidence; playing loosely versus playing tight, possibly the decision making by pressured coaches/managers in addition to other factors which also come into play.
I cut back from 2% of bankroll to 1% of bankroll while carefully, I look at each wager. If I discern the cause of the losing streak to be simply an issue of bad luck, I continue on and likely return to 2%.
The easiest way to discern if it is just a luck factor is if upon review, my series of losses are found to be mostly bad beats decided by last minute or last second actions. If that is the case and my wins are easy covers, I'm still OK.
However when after a loss or a series of losses, I can clearly see that I made obvious bad capping decisions or God forbid started to chase; when I'm getting blown out in most games and my few wins are bad beats for those on the opposite side, I will find something else to do for a few days. Generally when this happens the feeling of my being mentally drained is also rather obvious to me.
Last summer I was so burned out that I took a month and a half off during the middle of bases season. I came back refreshed, strong and began to win again.
I strongly believe an annual vacation from the games we play is a necessity for most of us. The duration of the vacation or season during which one takes the break will of course differ from case to case.
Steeser,
I believe your edge IS the same at all times, assuming your methods are constant. Streaks are unavoidable over a period of time, as that is just the nature of playing probability games.
Feeling of being in the "zone," or not being able to pick your nose, are just emotions getting in the way, which usually leads to the downfall of most gamblers. It is human nature to involve emotion in gambling, so eliminating it is easier said than done, but is a necesary component to "winning the game."
I believe your edge IS the same at all times, assuming your methods are constant. Streaks are unavoidable over a period of time, as that is just the nature of playing probability games.
Feeling of being in the "zone," or not being able to pick your nose, are just emotions getting in the way, which usually leads to the downfall of most gamblers. It is human nature to involve emotion in gambling, so eliminating it is easier said than done, but is a necesary component to "winning the game."
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by pja101:
Steeser,
I believe your edge IS the same at all times, assuming your methods are constant. Streaks are unavoidable over a period of time, as that is just the nature of playing probability games.
Feeling of being in the "zone," or not being able to pick your nose, are just emotions getting in the way, which usually leads to the downfall of most gamblers. It is human nature to involve emotion in gambling, so eliminating it is easier said than done, but is a necesary component to "winning the game."<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree with you, assuming your methods are consistent. My point, which I probably didn't explain well enough the first time, is that over the course of a bad streak, it's possible to question your handicapping and confidence, and your methods change as a result of that.
Steeser,
I believe your edge IS the same at all times, assuming your methods are constant. Streaks are unavoidable over a period of time, as that is just the nature of playing probability games.
Feeling of being in the "zone," or not being able to pick your nose, are just emotions getting in the way, which usually leads to the downfall of most gamblers. It is human nature to involve emotion in gambling, so eliminating it is easier said than done, but is a necesary component to "winning the game."<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree with you, assuming your methods are consistent. My point, which I probably didn't explain well enough the first time, is that over the course of a bad streak, it's possible to question your handicapping and confidence, and your methods change as a result of that.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by steeser:
I agree with you, assuming your methods are consistent. My point, which I probably didn't explain well enough the first time, is that over the course of a bad streak, it's possible to question your handicapping and confidence, and your methods change as a result of that.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Defintely. It is normal to question your methods during a losing streak. One way of avoiding this is to keep records, so that you can look back over a long period of time and see your methods aren't as dumb as you think.
That is not to say "tweaking" your methods is wrong, as that may sometimes be necesary to improve. The point is, as long as your methods have proven profitable over a long period of time, stick with them during a losing streak and pretty soon you'll likely hit a winning streak.
I agree with you, assuming your methods are consistent. My point, which I probably didn't explain well enough the first time, is that over the course of a bad streak, it's possible to question your handicapping and confidence, and your methods change as a result of that.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Defintely. It is normal to question your methods during a losing streak. One way of avoiding this is to keep records, so that you can look back over a long period of time and see your methods aren't as dumb as you think.
That is not to say "tweaking" your methods is wrong, as that may sometimes be necesary to improve. The point is, as long as your methods have proven profitable over a long period of time, stick with them during a losing streak and pretty soon you'll likely hit a winning streak.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bryan305:
just don't go on losing streaks
j/k...if you do go on a bad streak, get drunk and make your bets. If your system isn't working, having your judgement impaired might help, while being fun at the same time.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
well stated.
just don't go on losing streaks
j/k...if you do go on a bad streak, get drunk and make your bets. If your system isn't working, having your judgement impaired might help, while being fun at the same time.
well stated.
