What's wrong with this picture: Hawaii -1 over Rice

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Oh boy!
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Hawaii is coming off a bad-beat with a week to think about it. Now you may think Fla. Atl. was a better tea than Hawaii but the Warriors are motivated nevertheless.

Last year Hawaii had 397 passing yards at home against Rice and 369 passing yards in Texas the year before. First downs were 29 and 30 respectively. Cut to the chase, Chang knows how to move the ball against the Owls and he knows how to beat them.

Hawaii by 7 or more in my book.
 

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I also expected the line to be a little higher as well...I am on Hawaii right now...Both teams had a week to prepare for eachs teams unique type of Offenses...but I feel practicing to defend the running offense that Rice has is a lot more easier than it is to practice defending the type of passing Offense Hawaii will run....Another thing in Hawaii's favor is the fact that they can completely use all of their practice time running Rice's Offense and totally focus on preparing for their option offense, primarily because they will have another bye week following this one...Rice, on the other hand, has to play at #6 Texas in their next game following, and I think due to Hawaii's loss to FAU and their solid win over favored Houston, they may be slightly looking ahead to Texas a bit...Anyways, this one is the run vs the pass..and I have to side with the Warriors here...
 

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I haven't taken a look recetnly but isn't Hawaii usually one of the worst road teams in college football?
 

mws

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Last year Hawaii had 397 passing yards at home against Rice and 369 passing yards in Texas the year before. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
But that's what UH does pretty much every game. UH averaged 386 pass yards in '02 and 384 last year, so Rice's D did an average job of stopping the UH attack. Rice has covered the last 4 years in this matchup. Rice usually does not play well after a bye, though. Lookahead to Texas is a possibility.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jwunderdog:
I haven't taken a look recetnly but isn't Hawaii usually one of the worst road teams in college football? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hawaii is 5-6 on the road in the last 3 years.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by mws:
But that's what UH does pretty much every game. UH averaged 386 pass yards in '02 and 384 last year, so Rice's D did an average job of stopping the UH attack. Rice has covered the last 4 years in this matchup. Rice usually does not play well after a bye, though. Lookahead to Texas is a possibility. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

While Rice may have covered the last 4 years, I am willing to bet that the spread was not -1. Oops, just went up to -1.5 at Pinny.
 

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I think the line is just about right with the way Rice has had success vs Hawaii in the past. Rice is coming off an upset win at home while Haw just got beat by FLA ATL at HOME! Hawaii historically doesn't travel well either, BUT I'm on the Rainbows to bounce back with the PASS!! FLA ATL was 11/20 on 3rd down conversions which is pretty damn good, but I think Hawaii will tighten that up here. HAW also had 0 TO's which is good also. Chang is going to HAVE to beat Rice with his arm because the running game most likely won't be there as Rice just STUFFED Houston in their last game. First conference game for both, so don't expect any look aheads, but Hawaii could turn the season around in a big way and forget that horrible loss with a win here! If not...could be a LONG season with that defense they have.
 

mws

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No, the spread wasn't -1 any of the last 4 years, but Rice managed to win one of the games straight up, so they would have covered as +1 that time. Anyway, the point is that the Rice defensive staff seems to be able to scheme well enough against the UH D to cause Rice to do better than expected when the two teams play. Rice is better defensively than they were the last couple years, so I wouldn't expect a blowout.
 

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I would advise fading or passing on Hawaii until later in the season.

I have been telling all of you guys, but many have choosen not to listen, that this Hawaii team is as overrated as their coach. Hawaii and June Jones talk the talk but do not walk the walk (5-15 ATS last 20). Hawaii will be more style than substance as long as June remains here (which won't be much longer if they lay the stinker I think they will this season).

Those of you who chose to listen to me instead of some of the rah-rah homer stuff that circulates around here cashed a TON on FAU. Hell, Railbird even cashed a 19:1 ML ticket on FAU. I told a lot of you at the Rx bash in early August that Hawaii was a season long fade, esp. at home.

Because locals here feed off the "us against the world" mantra, Hawaii is all about situation and emotion. Wait until they feel "slighted" about something with a rival coming to town (like BYU or UNLV) before even thinking of risking your money on this overrated bunch.

Until that rare situation occurs, the Bows (their real soul, not the June Jones created "Warrior" crap) will just be another money-burner as long as June is around.
 

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Sal:

Thanks for Rice's record.

ppeter:

I remember what you said about the FAU game and agreed with you. However, I feel that Hawaii felt they should have won that one and that will be their motivating factor against Rice.

Good luck guys.
 

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LOL, with all due respect, all teams that lose a close game think they should have won it. If you consider that an "extra motivating factor" for the next game, we have 100 or so "extra motived" teams week in and week out countering each other's "extra motivation."
 
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rice runs all over hawaii. hawaii lost way to much on the defense front to stop the run.

giving me a running attack vs a passing attack any day of the week.

rice is far from looking ahead at texas. these kids have a winnable game in fromt of them, they have prepared for hawaii and only hawaii. though i am not the coach, i would think that is the only thing on their minds.

a conf win at home.

this is not my conference to handicap, but i can tell you that rice is a huge system play for me. which is undefeated this year.

hope you guys make the right decision
 

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My opinion on Hawaii, if you dont mind me sharing it, is that I do agree that Hawaii's weakness is definately their Defense this year...Although, it wasnt the defense only which cost them the game with FAU...The defense came up big several times in the beginning with key TOs but failed to continue coming up with big stops in the end...as FAU scored on 4th and 11 with 23 secs left on the clock to get this one to OT....

The Offense also didnt capitalize jumping out to a bigger lead off of the FAU turnovers...The Offense although not committing any turnovers themselves, just couldnt put it together on a consistant basis in order to get that high scoring Offense rolling...and this inconsistancy cost them a chance at closing it out in the end...

Then Coach Jones made a mistake in this game by not utilizing more running plays into the mix...The only problem that I have really with Coach Jone's philosophy is on the Offensive side of the ball where he believes that the perfect game is one that doesnt have any running plays at all...This is something that in my opinion is not going to work...Why?...Because just like a team who only runs the ball and does not use enough passing plays, it allows the defense to sit back and wait for the pass or to simply stack the line to stuff the run...It eliminates the effectiveness of a balanced attack for one...and then the ability to keep the opponents defense guessing for another...If a defense already knows what is coming, it eliminates half of the battle for them making it much easier to make adjustments and key in on several go to players....Hawaii finds more success with its Offense when it utilizes more running plays in the mix, which helps to at least keep the defense a little honest defending for both the run and the pass...But having 66 pass attempts and less than 10 running plays is something that I disagreed with and what, I believe, led to FAU's defensive success vs Timmy Chang and the Hawaii pass offense...Hawaii has 3 very proven and talented RBs to use(two speedsters and one bruiser) and the decision not to take advantage of them more is just a waste of talent and a bad offensive strategy...IMO.

Still, Coach Jones believes in this Offensive scheme and it has led to Hawaii's Offense to be consistantly ranked among the best, yardage wise, in the nation since he came to Hawaii...It has also helped to turn this Hawaii program around and get it to national recognition and 3 Bowl games in his 5 year tenure...plus its led to the breaking of many passing records, with the most noteble record(NCAA All Time Passing Yardage Record) on the verge of being its next victim to be broken by QB Timmy Chang, and that will be a HUGE achievement regardless of how it was accomplished...This record if broken by Timmy Chang, will possibly never ever be broken again...So people here in Hawaii cannot complain so hard when things go wrong at times...and they definately have no stance when saying that Coach Jones was a bad hire for Hawaii...He has done more to get Hawaii's program to where it is then any other coach at Hawaii ever did...I just think that he needs to again tweak this run and shoot offense a little with better play calling as it is becoming a little to predictable to opposing defenses and that is not a good thing for any Offense...


Ok now that I got that off my chest, I want to just let everyone know that the first and foremost goal of Coach June Jones this year, is to break that All Time passing record...then second to win the WAC(of course he wont say this, but it is true)...The importance of breaking this record will be the Biggest accomplishment by any Hawaii player and with it will bring Big National recognition to the University of Hawaii Football program, the State of Hawaii, and Coach Jone's Offensive philosophy....He has made big statements to everyone before he was given that huge contract, on how his Offensive will lead Hawaii to a lot of success, which it has....and also that it will propell the program into a higher National level necessary to attract bigger recruits to come here...The next most important step to achiving this is bringing that record to Hawaii and having it belong to this Football program...The reason why I see this as important information to know, is because it seems based on his play calling in the first game with FAU, Coach Jones is definately trying to get Timmy all the yardage he can in the beginning of the season against the weaker opponents on this years schedule...If everything goes as planned, Timmy Chang should break this record by the 5th or 6th game before the tough second half of the schedule starting at Boise St begins...So with that said, I would expect to see a lot of the same outrageous amount of passing attempts to be made by Timmy Chang in the next several games coming up...

Now, it is up to everyone to use this information how they see fit with regards to betting for or against Hawaii in the weeks to come...but for me knowing whats ahead, on the line, and in the plans regarding Coach Jones, Timmy Chang, and Hawaii, is helpful in my opinion...TFWIW...CC.
 
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i had a chance to watch a few hawaii games last year, and chang is either great or just terrible, and that is from series to series, pass to pass. And as far as breaking records, this isn't byu with some great college qb's of the past.

if chang is so great, why did he get benched last year?

i do love hawaii's offense, every game should go over, at least the ones on the island.

hawaii had a great front four last year, LAST YEAR.

hawaii dominated rice last year FD's 29 to 14, dominated passing yards 397 to 173, and got three turnovers.

Going back to last year I saw hawaii have a possesion of 7 seconds, 3 plays and the total off the clock was 7 seconds. FOUL PLAY? some strange things happen on the island. Anyway, the point is if you continue to put a young defense on the field vs a rushing attack on the road in conference play you are asking for a ass beatng.

RICE has a ton of experience coming back in the secondary, 7 total on defense, and 8 back on offense including the qb and 2 backs. plus both wideouts (te), and three of 5 offensive lineman.

some quick stats

rica at home as a dog 11-1-1 last 7 years

hawaii on the road as a fav 4-6 last 7 years, and 1-3 last year

For Hawaii to lose at home vs Flo Atl who just entered D-1 says a ton to me.

THEY ARE NOT VERY GOOD, AND NOW THEY GO ON THE ROAD.



GO OWLS
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ppeter:
LOL, with all due respect, all teams that lose a close game think they should have won it. If you consider that an "extra motivating factor" for the next game, we have 100 or so "extra motived" teams week in and week out countering each other's "extra motivation." <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Not all teams that lose a close game think they should have won it by a large margin. That is the difference here ppeter.

Hawaii has handled Rice both on the road and at home in the last 2 years. That is partly what I am basing my opinion on here. Chang has something to prove this year and since he didn't do it at home he has had a week to think about it.

Chang is a much better player than when he beat Rice in Texas 2 years ago.

Good points on both sides people. Let's bring up some more.
 

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It doesnt have to be a BYU and some Great QB of the past....the record will be broken by Timmy Chang, and no one will ever break it again...CASE CLOSED!...and for the Great QB from BYU who currently holds the record, the day he won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in the nation, he got his ass spanked and humiliated on TV that same night, by guess who?...So you see, what one sees as great, may not be great at all...and Ty's failer as a Pro proves this....But still, people like yourself consider him to be a great QB....What made him good was that he was in a great Offensive program, led by a Great Offensive mind(Norm Chow)...Who is a local boy from guess where?...

Furthermore, about Timmy being benched...Are you telling me that you have never seen a star player, even a professional one, being benched before for poor performance on the field/court by their coach...If you havent, then you need to get educated on this as it happens a lot of times to even the Best athletes....In Timmy's case, it was done mainly to allow him to gather himself and hopefully work himself out of his funk mentally on the sidelines...he had lost his focus, for whatever reason, which is something that happens to athletes many times...But you would have to be or have been an athlete to know this, which obviously from your lack of knowing this your not....Coach Jones is a former QB himself and have been around some of the best QB's in the NFL, so he knew what he was doing with Timmy....and guess what?...Timmy came back and responded big time in the next game in the Hawaii Bowl, remember...So you see, sometimes things that appear bad really isnt and sometimes things that look good really is...But again, everyone has their own opinions and that is why one should get educated first before sharing it...

Bottom line, is that it doesnt matter what anyone thinks about Timmy Chang...because after this season is done, he will be the NCAA Passing Yardage leader of All Time and no one will be able to take that away from him or the fans of the Warriors, no matter how hard they try...This record will be connected to the Hawaii Warriors football program and will never ever be broken by anyone....And Timmy, will be the most prolific passer ever in NCAA history and that is enough for him to be considered great...whether you agree or not.

Now as for your defense of Rice...Its funny how you never show both sides of the game as it may occur...Your statement regarding Rice and how they will win because they are returning a ton of experience on Defense and in the secondary, 7 starter return....Well, are you aware that Hawaii returns 12 starters on an Offense that was rated in the top 5 Nationally last year, and that the strength of this team besides QB Chang is in the WRs where they are loaded....In fact, this WR Corp of Hawaii was ranked by many as one of the Top 10 WR Corp in the nation this year...This Offense and its personal has already faced and defeated this Rice defense the past two years(once on the road and once at home), yet you feel that this same squad just because they return 7 players can do it this year...Hmmm, interesting.

For Rice's Offense that return 8....Well besides the two returning RBs, QB Henderson is effective running the option, but he isnt a reliable QB if Rice is behind and will need to now pass...Last year he passed for only 485 yards and at a 45.7% completion rate..not good if coming from behind...Now as for them returning 2 WRs, well these guys are almost non-existant in this Offense as Rice is a run, run, run all day all night Offense...Still, if they are used..then did you know that the strength of the Warrior Defense is in the Secondary as well...Although they lost in their last game, the Warrior Defense was able to get several interceptions from this FAU team who QB threw less than 10 ints all season last year...So I say that the Rice's WRs or their passing game is not really a big concern as their running game is in this one...

Rice had a solid running game last season behind that OL...but this year they lose 1 of their best RBs in Beck and two from the OL...Now Hawaii was hit hard with the lost on the Defensive front, but this personal on the DL did play in last years game vs Rice and have seen this offense...Plus, with the bye week...and the personal to effectively run Rice's Offense by scout team members...Hawaii has had a lot of practice to prepare for the option attack that Rice will run....But, for Rice to duplicate effectively Hawaii's Offensive passing game is another story...I dont think they will be able to simulate this and this could be a disadvantage when the real thing comes on game time....It is very important for the preparation of a team during the week to be able to see what type of Offense the other team will be running and then practice against it....I think Hawaii has a big advantage doing this here over Rice....

In fact speaking of some stats...Hawaii has gone 4-1 SU vs teams over the past 3 years that run similar type of Offenses like that of Rice...That one lost was back in 2001...

As far as the stats go for Rice at home...it is rather impressive, but one must know what happened , who they played, the situation affecting both teams, the lines posted on each of the games, etc...in order to determine if those stats match up perfectly to predict that these stats from the past will be a gurantee to continue in this game with this Hawaii team....So for me, stats like these are rarely used, especially as Rice never had a good team and could of been an underdog by a lot of points...Well, the line in this one, if you werent aware is -1...This is a lot different then being an underdog by DDs or even a full TD...So these type of stats, if used, by me to cap games, are only used in secondary capping role and never a primary one.

Last weeks lost for Hawaii was something that shouldnt have occurred, but like anything else these type of games where a team with a little over confident attitude, because of their lesser opponents they will face, can get caught lacking focus, intensity, and taking a team like FAU lightly....This is what I feel Hawaii was caught doing amongst other things, and it bit them in their ass...Hey, we seen this happen last season as the MAC teams shocked a lot of teams...Something like this happens...still, not to take away anything from this FAU team who btw is a very good one...as they did finish last season ranked #3 in D-1AA and they do have a solid Coach in Schellenberger(sp) who has already won a National Championship on the Div-1 level, not to mention that this team is from Florida and filled with some good athletes, and who beat the Sun Belt Top team and favorite to win the Conf again this year in North Texas...So FAU is not a slouch, just like how those MAC teams of last season werent...

Hawaii got a good wake up call and this is a good thing for them and that it happened in the beginning of the season...One game or one loss is not enough for someone to determine whether a team is good or not...I remember last season several teams getting upset by lesser foes, but turned things around and still went bowling and ended ranked in the Top 25....So it is not smart to base or make judgement about a team based on one game...Only ignorant people do that...and it is not a good way to cap games as well...Also, past stats arent nearly enough to determine who is going to win or lose in the future.

This Hawaii line is -1 right now...and I am leaning with Hawaii for more reason then what I stated above...I am still waiting on some reports on the defensive side as we had some players banged up going into the FAU game...I will let you all know later what I find out and then if I make this a play or not....Stay tuned for more info later...
 
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don't get so pissed.

timmy chang is an ok qb who gets to throw every down IN A WEAK CONFERENCE. CASE CLOSED!

and i wasn't talking about ty either. he also got throw every damn down.

AND YOU MADE MY POINT ABOVE, NOT BEING TO ABLE SUSTAIN DRIVES, MAYBE IF THEY WOULD RUN A NORMAL OFFENSIVE THEY COULD SUSTAIN SOME DRIVES INSTEAD OF GOING FOR SOME STUPID RECORD.

TELLS ME A LOT ABOUT JONES AS A COACH, TERRIBLE.

and NO, i can't name a qb who got benched in his junior season who is such a great qb. usually you get benched as a frosh or soph, not just before the end of your junior season as a great qb and record breaker.

and yes i do remember the hula bowl last year, HOUSTON COVERED MY BROTHER.


you are like a little kid, if someone doesn't agree with you, you take offense.


I JUST HOPE FOR EVERYONES SAKE THAT JONES TAKES THAT STUPID SHIRT OFF. SHOW SOME CLASS AND RESPECT FOR OTHER COACH'S AND COLLEGES.
 

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For what little it's worth, I'm not touching Hawaii in the game with a ten foot pole. Hawaii's young D is goning to have trouble with the triple option, and who know's about their offense. At times good, other times they can get shut down by San Jose St.

Rice or no play for me.
 

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LOL...Thanks for proving my point KID!...LMFAO.
icon_cool.gif
 

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