Still new to handicapping so was wondering everyone's opinion on this. College basketball been tough for me this year lots of ups and downs.
Try to concentrate on the number more so than STATS when handicapping. The last time Duke vs UNC played Duke was -2. So on a neutral court Duke is probably 7 points better than UNC. Now add Duke's home court which is the best in the country. You saw Barry Switzer, Tony Romo etc etc there at the game. So Duke -7 was a gift.
Look where the smart money is: Duke opened -7, 68% of CRIS' action (according to my Don Best Odds program), yet line moves Duke -9.5. Duke Covers; Duke had revenge, just suffered an embarrassing loss to Wake, Duke was -2 the last time they lost to North Carolina.
I recommend using situations. (i.e. Motivation, who needs the game more. What happened in their last game): The Cincinnati Bearcats blow out Memphis on an emotional senior night (Kilpatrick cried). There is no way in the world a human being can give that same kind of effort two or three days later. This resulted in a Rutgers cover.
Google Linemakers and watch their videos with Kenny White/Micah Roberts. Kenny White will give you what he thinks the line should open at.