What To Watch For Tonight
7 p.m. -- Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky.
If Virginia is called quickly for Obama, it means he likely wins the presidential race and Democrats across the country will have a huge night. If it's not called early, it's could be an indication that white undecided voters are breaking to McCain. Prepare for an hour long discussion of the "Bradley effect." If Georgia or Indiana are called early for Obama, it's a leading indicator for a landslide.
In Kentucky, all eyes are on the fate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
7:30 p.m. -- Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
Obama victories in North Carolina or Ohio likely seal the deal for him. An Obama win in West Virginia means start looking for Obama coattails in close House and Senate races.
8:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, McCain cannot win. His only real path to the presidency at this point requires he win the Keystone State. An Obama win in Missouri once again means a likely landslide in the electoral college.
9:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Colorado and New Mexico.
Polls indicate both of these swing states should go to Obama. Early calls in each state will have Obama racking up electoral votes quickly.
10:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Iowa, Montana, and Nevada.
If Obama wins in Montana and Nevada, we're looking at a possible political realignment of the Mountain West of the United States.
11:00 p.m. -- Polls close in California and North Dakota.
California is the biggest state of them all with 55 electoral votes and may put Obama over the top. If the election hasn't been decided by now, it's probably become an interesting night for the McCain campaign and Republicans. However, an Obama win in North Dakota means we're witnessing a landslide.
7 p.m. -- Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky.
If Virginia is called quickly for Obama, it means he likely wins the presidential race and Democrats across the country will have a huge night. If it's not called early, it's could be an indication that white undecided voters are breaking to McCain. Prepare for an hour long discussion of the "Bradley effect." If Georgia or Indiana are called early for Obama, it's a leading indicator for a landslide.
In Kentucky, all eyes are on the fate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
7:30 p.m. -- Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
Obama victories in North Carolina or Ohio likely seal the deal for him. An Obama win in West Virginia means start looking for Obama coattails in close House and Senate races.
8:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, McCain cannot win. His only real path to the presidency at this point requires he win the Keystone State. An Obama win in Missouri once again means a likely landslide in the electoral college.
9:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Colorado and New Mexico.
Polls indicate both of these swing states should go to Obama. Early calls in each state will have Obama racking up electoral votes quickly.
10:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Iowa, Montana, and Nevada.
If Obama wins in Montana and Nevada, we're looking at a possible political realignment of the Mountain West of the United States.
11:00 p.m. -- Polls close in California and North Dakota.
California is the biggest state of them all with 55 electoral votes and may put Obama over the top. If the election hasn't been decided by now, it's probably become an interesting night for the McCain campaign and Republicans. However, an Obama win in North Dakota means we're witnessing a landslide.
Think Betit has it right.
Indiana and Kentucky close first at 6pm est.
The earliest a canidate could be the official victor with enough electorals is 8 est.
http://mullings.com/electoralcollege.htm
Indiana and Kentucky close first at 6pm est.
The earliest a canidate could be the official victor with enough electorals is 8 est.
http://mullings.com/electoralcollege.htm
Excellent write up of which counties to watch from the 7s from the politico
Where to watch tonight
I'm a state elections website lover on Election Night, scrolling through the counties and cities to check turnout and margins.
Here are the localities I'll be watching to glean clues as to how the race is unfolding as the first polls close.
At 7, voting ends in Virginia, Georgia and Indiana. We'll know a lot about where the night is heading by the results there and especially below:
Virginia: Watch Fairfax and Newport News. Not only are they the two large localities, but they provide important indicators as to whether a Republican will win statewide. If McCain is only losing blue-trending Fairfax by ten-to-twelve points, he'll have a shot to hold Virginia. Bush lost Fairfax by eight in 2004 en route to carrying Virginia by eight points. Down in Tidewater, Kerry eked out a four-point victory in Newport News in 2004. Obama is likely to do better in the city this time the back of a strong African-American turnout. But what is key is his margin. We'll have a good sense of how much Obama has maximized black turnout, when we see how big his win is here, in a 43% African-American city.
Georgia: Watch DeKalb. Outside of Prince Georges in Maryland, there is no better example of the rise of the new black middle class than in this suburban Atlanta county. Kerry romped here in 2004, winning 73-26, but again watch to see how much he can both increase his margin and grow turnout. About 275,000 people voted in this fast-growing county four years ago. If Obama can shatter Kerry's performance here, a 55% black county, and in other black areas around Atlanta, it would make Georgia competitive
Indiana: Watch Marion and Hamilton. Marion, home to Indianapolis, is the largest county in the state and one filled with both African-Americans and moderate whites. Because of this mix, Bush won here by one percentage point in 2004 en route to carrying the state by about 20 points. Obama will almost certainly take Marion this time, but the question, again, is by how much? Running up a large margin here would offset the losses he's likely to take across southern Indiana. And just north of Marion, keep an eye on fast-growing Hamilton. This has been a Republcian stronghold, and Bush won 74-25. But as in other suburbs filled with newcomers, Obama is showing signs of strength. He's invested significant resources there in an effort to close the '04 gap. If Obama keeps his losses there under 10 percent, Republicans should worry.
Where to watch tonight
I'm a state elections website lover on Election Night, scrolling through the counties and cities to check turnout and margins.
Here are the localities I'll be watching to glean clues as to how the race is unfolding as the first polls close.
At 7, voting ends in Virginia, Georgia and Indiana. We'll know a lot about where the night is heading by the results there and especially below:
Virginia: Watch Fairfax and Newport News. Not only are they the two large localities, but they provide important indicators as to whether a Republican will win statewide. If McCain is only losing blue-trending Fairfax by ten-to-twelve points, he'll have a shot to hold Virginia. Bush lost Fairfax by eight in 2004 en route to carrying Virginia by eight points. Down in Tidewater, Kerry eked out a four-point victory in Newport News in 2004. Obama is likely to do better in the city this time the back of a strong African-American turnout. But what is key is his margin. We'll have a good sense of how much Obama has maximized black turnout, when we see how big his win is here, in a 43% African-American city.
Georgia: Watch DeKalb. Outside of Prince Georges in Maryland, there is no better example of the rise of the new black middle class than in this suburban Atlanta county. Kerry romped here in 2004, winning 73-26, but again watch to see how much he can both increase his margin and grow turnout. About 275,000 people voted in this fast-growing county four years ago. If Obama can shatter Kerry's performance here, a 55% black county, and in other black areas around Atlanta, it would make Georgia competitive
Indiana: Watch Marion and Hamilton. Marion, home to Indianapolis, is the largest county in the state and one filled with both African-Americans and moderate whites. Because of this mix, Bush won here by one percentage point in 2004 en route to carrying the state by about 20 points. Obama will almost certainly take Marion this time, but the question, again, is by how much? Running up a large margin here would offset the losses he's likely to take across southern Indiana. And just north of Marion, keep an eye on fast-growing Hamilton. This has been a Republcian stronghold, and Bush won 74-25. But as in other suburbs filled with newcomers, Obama is showing signs of strength. He's invested significant resources there in an effort to close the '04 gap. If Obama keeps his losses there under 10 percent, Republicans should worry.
