What PERCENTAGE of players do you think will be eliminated....

[SportSavant]

from a shot at 1 MILLION after week 1 of the BetJamaica/Olympic Pick 3 contest?

 

[blueedwards]

all i can say for sure is that i will be eliminated. i am terrible at these contests

 

[Fishhead]

14.3%

 

[cincy_]

Assuming everyone takes a -300 favorite, that would mean the chance of the team winning would be about 75%. If you bet 3 teams who have a 75% chance of winning in a parlay, the chance of you losing the parlay is 58% (1-0.75*0.75*0.75 = 1- 0.42 = 0.58).

That means the chance of YOU losing is 58%, but you need to keep in mind that a lot of people will be picking the same teams. Looking at this week's card, there are 4-teams that will be on almost everyone's selection of 3 teams, there are 4 different selections of 3-team parlays that you can have. If one of the 4 teams loses, only one of the 3-team parlays will survive and 3 will lose. So the percentage of people who will lose is:

So 58%* 3/4 = 43.5%

(Fish, did you do "58% divided by 4" to get 14%? If one team loses, 3 different parlay combinations are ruined, so it should be 3/4 and not 1/4, no?)

 

[SportSavant]

14.3%

NO WAY, WAY MORE than 14.3% will be eliminated.....

I would say almost half, without thinking of the Math of it......

 

[cincy_]

NO WAY, WAY MORE than 14.3% will be eliminated.....

I would say almost half, without thinking of the Math of it......

I think he didn't figure that if 1 of the 4 teams lost, it would wipe out 3 out of 4 parlay card (similar to a round-robin). Don't know - just a guess because I got 14% on my first calculation too until I realized my mistake.