preakness 3/5 (but after track take out that is about 50 % of the win pool so dont use 3/5 as your true value in setting up your hedge)
belmost 1/5 - 2/5 this horse can run all day and will be an overbet 1/5 but that will be approx 65% of the win pool
belmost 1/5 - 2/5 this horse can run all day and will be an overbet 1/5 but that will be approx 65% of the win pool
7/5-8/5 because of(repost):
Here's Preakness probables pp's: http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...knessprobs.pdf scratch Lawyer Ron & Baffert's horses.
I never use the DRF, but from that perspective-- glancing over the Beyers-- it may just look like a tossup to the average reader:
5/6 horses look fairly bunched-- including a couple of winning Derby non-starters-- only one looks hopeless; apart from that one, each can/may attract significant support. Hopefully the press focuses on some of them...the only fly in the ointment is that major names are starting to fall like dominoes behind Barbaro: Beyer, Finley......
<!-- / message -->
Here's Preakness probables pp's: http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...knessprobs.pdf scratch Lawyer Ron & Baffert's horses.
I never use the DRF, but from that perspective-- glancing over the Beyers-- it may just look like a tossup to the average reader:
5/6 horses look fairly bunched-- including a couple of winning Derby non-starters-- only one looks hopeless; apart from that one, each can/may attract significant support. Hopefully the press focuses on some of them...the only fly in the ointment is that major names are starting to fall like dominoes behind Barbaro: Beyer, Finley......
<!-- / message -->
Another piece of evidence, but not good-- ThoroughbredTimes poll running 82-18 Yes-no Barbaro wins Preakness, scroll down a bit & vote first: http://thoroughbredtimes.com/default.asp
still +101 today at Pinnacle.
I think the Belmont would be easier race for him, he has the breeding to go long. Pimlico can have some bad inside/speed biases so if some frontrunner draws inside of him there, you never know. Prado was the leading rider in Maryland for a while though so he has had good success at Pimlico and should be able to figure out how the track is playing
I think the Belmont would be easier race for him, he has the breeding to go long. Pimlico can have some bad inside/speed biases so if some frontrunner draws inside of him there, you never know. Prado was the leading rider in Maryland for a while though so he has had good success at Pimlico and should be able to figure out how the track is playing
try,
You already have a bet to win the Triple Crown. Why add to it? He was super impressive but there is a reason no one has done it in a long time.
And he's looking at most likely a 4 point top with 2 weeks rest. I hope he wins for you but i wouldn't be adding to a good value bet that you already have.
You already have a bet to win the Triple Crown. Why add to it? He was super impressive but there is a reason no one has done it in a long time.
And he's looking at most likely a 4 point top with 2 weeks rest. I hope he wins for you but i wouldn't be adding to a good value bet that you already have.
brother derek ?
dont forget about this horse. had post 18 VERY wide on BOTH turns , had traffic on backstretch, finished GAME ! Forget about what price barbaro is going to be , if you get 5-1 or better on Brother Derek , Dont walk , but RUN to the windows !!! simple bet , BROTHER DEREK { WIN] EX SAVER [ BARBARO over BROTHER DEREK } $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
dont forget about this horse. had post 18 VERY wide on BOTH turns , had traffic on backstretch, finished GAME ! Forget about what price barbaro is going to be , if you get 5-1 or better on Brother Derek , Dont walk , but RUN to the windows !!! simple bet , BROTHER DEREK { WIN] EX SAVER [ BARBARO over BROTHER DEREK } $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Over the long haul, betting into 4 point tops with 2 weeks rest is a recipe for disaster. I can't bet him off that effort. The group this year is just too talented. He could do it, but it will not be nearly as easy as people think. Smarty beat a bunch of mules...impressively. Barbaro beat a stellar group and will have a strong group to beat in the Preakness and some fresh faces in the Belmont. It would be great for racing.
Reminds me: if i was the owner of him and SNS, i'd hold both off until the Belmont-- it's a disservice to overrace them like that, and to boot in spite of physical issues both have supposedly-- it's not like there's a TC bonus that pays off for the top off for the several horses...skinny larry said:
And 77% say yes in DRF poll: http://vote.sparklit.com/poll.spark/187949
at(scroll down): http://drf.com/
at(scroll down): http://drf.com/
Another nail in the odds coffin:
http://drf.com/news/article/74421.html
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=heading1>Barbaro gets 130 Timeform</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=content height=337>By ALAN SHUBACK
Barbaro has nosed out George Washington by a margin of 130 to 129+ according to the Timeform ratings earned by the winners of their respective classic races on opposite sides of the Atlantic on Saturday. Barbaro's Timeform rating of 130 is the highest awarded to a Kentucky Derby winner since 1998 when Real Quiet earned a 131. His margin over 2000 Guineas winner George Washington means that he would theoretically be weighted 1 lb. higher if the two were to meet in a handicap. The plus sign after George Washington's rating, however, means that the Timeform mavens believe that he may be better than they have rated it. With the exception of Kings Best's Guineas rating of 130+ in 2000, the Timeform ratings of Barbaro and George Washington, both of whom were bred by Roy and Gretchen Jackson of West Grove, Pennsylvania, are the highest earned in either classic this century. Working backward in time, Timeform's Derby ratings are Giacomo 123, Smarty Jones 128, Funny Cide 125, War Emblem 128, Monarchos 129, Fusaichi Pegasus 127+. Timeform's concurrent 2000 Guineas ratings are Footstepsinthesand 120, Haafhd 129, Refuse To Bend 118+, Rock Of Gibraltar 124, Golan 122, King's Best 130+.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://drf.com/news/article/74421.html
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=heading1>Barbaro gets 130 Timeform</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=content height=337>By ALAN SHUBACK
Barbaro has nosed out George Washington by a margin of 130 to 129+ according to the Timeform ratings earned by the winners of their respective classic races on opposite sides of the Atlantic on Saturday. Barbaro's Timeform rating of 130 is the highest awarded to a Kentucky Derby winner since 1998 when Real Quiet earned a 131. His margin over 2000 Guineas winner George Washington means that he would theoretically be weighted 1 lb. higher if the two were to meet in a handicap. The plus sign after George Washington's rating, however, means that the Timeform mavens believe that he may be better than they have rated it. With the exception of Kings Best's Guineas rating of 130+ in 2000, the Timeform ratings of Barbaro and George Washington, both of whom were bred by Roy and Gretchen Jackson of West Grove, Pennsylvania, are the highest earned in either classic this century. Working backward in time, Timeform's Derby ratings are Giacomo 123, Smarty Jones 128, Funny Cide 125, War Emblem 128, Monarchos 129, Fusaichi Pegasus 127+. Timeform's concurrent 2000 Guineas ratings are Footstepsinthesand 120, Haafhd 129, Refuse To Bend 118+, Rock Of Gibraltar 124, Golan 122, King's Best 130+.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
