I don't think the leagues would end up getting 1% like they are asking for. Like any negotiations it is a starting point. They would probably settle for .5% or even less like .2% as long as they get a new revenue stream out of it. But once the states and the feds get involved with their end I could see it end up -120 or worse on single game bets. And stuff like teasers, forget it, it will not happen unless they let the companies that run things in Vegas take over running the operations. And what about taxes, are you going to get a W2G if you put down $5k and win? That is where I could see it not being worth the effort. I will still use a local or the offshores I already have. Sure its a risk but if you are in this long term and to win $$ every penny counts.
If I could walk up to a window in Nebraska and lay -120 and know I'm getting paid the minute the game is over I would probably do it. I don't gamble anymore except when I'm in Vegas (will be there next weekend) because it's way too much of a pain in the ass to get the money in/out. Also way to easy to feel like it's Monopoly money when it's in my account online. A $2000 wager clicking yes to confirm doesn't cause me to think twice but 20 100's at a window and then getting 40 of them does.
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My cousins friend flew to Vegas with his gf for the SB & bet 2k on the Eagles +4.5, 1k on ML & -7.5 alt line for 300. I asked why he didn't play with any locals, he said he didn't gave a local & is not a big sports bettor. He did say once they legalize sports betting, he will be playing weekly.
That's what legal betting does, it attracts the bettors that only bet several times a year into betting weekly.
I think it will all pan out, & laying -115 to -120 for peace of mind isn't bad.
I've been to Vegas where I had to lay -120 several times on the team I liked cuz they were getting juiced, & I know its not every game, but it still happens.
If sports betting becomes legal in US, I am assuming that wagering on sports online would then be legal, which means that the choice between -120 at the corner store or -110 at a solid offshore is a no brainer. If you stay with the big guns offshore, I would imagine that you would still have the safety.
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Do you guys know how many bettors play those local football tickets weekly, multi millions of people, & ties lose on those tickets, those are the people that wont mind paying -120 all day long.
It won't be a free market like the heyday of offshore or anything, but still think -110 will probably be the industry norm. No need to go to -120 when you can print $ with -110. Then if you win consistently, you just get cut off.
The best thing would be a peer to peer exchange like matchbook with way more liquidity, but doubt that happens anytime soon. The whole point of legalizing is so the middleman can make more $$, not to cut them out.
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Logically it makes sense and is easy to implement but then what happens with gov't revenue from sports betting? Not to mention all the businesses that get disrupted.
Probably just say the blockchain doesn't lend itself to transparency and find a way to shut it down in the name of "the integrity of the sport"
