Look for if they have the capabilty to take out top teams. I don't care if tehy have dropped one or two to some low mid-majors, if they are a mid-major shown they can hang with a top 25 team (good example is utah) then usually they can get over the hill in teh tourney on a neutral site.
Road record is mildly important. There's always a few "good" teams (example last year: Vanderbilt) that are really good at home but for some reason are really bad on the road, always, and i'll fade them into oblivion in the tourney
Road record is mildly important. There's always a few "good" teams (example last year: Vanderbilt) that are really good at home but for some reason are really bad on the road, always, and i'll fade them into oblivion in the tourney
This is a good point, look at not just how the top conference teams did, but how they all did. For instance, Oregon has been the Pac10's rag doll and has beat up on pretty much everyone, but they wiped the floor with Alabama. SEC is thus fade material but eveyone proabbly already knows this.
Oregon also beat Kansas State, and USC almost beat Oklahoma AT oklahoma. UCLA lost at Texas close, btu that's pretty standard
i agree with big 10. stretching it too far delta.
when im talking about conference style matchups in regards to the big 10, i'm talking about say a purdue vs. a washington type game. two completely different styles of play. a team like washington will have trouble with a half court oriented team, while i think its easier to mimic a washington type offense. the defense of purdue's will prevail in the end.
when im talking about conference style matchups in regards to the big 10, i'm talking about say a purdue vs. a washington type game. two completely different styles of play. a team like washington will have trouble with a half court oriented team, while i think its easier to mimic a washington type offense. the defense of purdue's will prevail in the end.
gonzaga is another team that i think would lose against any big ten team if they faced them. the athleticism is pretty even, but gonzaga doesn't have the discipline to play 40 minutes of big 10 style and the defense isn't good enough. im telling you now, big 10 will surprise people in march.
of course, like dominator said though, its all about matchups.
of course, like dominator said though, its all about matchups.
Here's some more candy that I found online
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 10"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 10"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COWNER%7E1.UND%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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urple; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} p {mso-margin-top-alt:auto; margin-right:0in; mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:0in; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} </style> <![endif]--> Tips on Picking NCAA Tournament Games
First comes filling in your brackets. Office pool success is typically decided by two types of predictions: 1) Picking teams that will go deep into the tournament; 2) Picking a healthy amount of upsets in the early rounds.
On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that's why they are top seeds. But you're not going to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let's take a look at how #1 seeds have historically done: (All stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a 64-team tournament. All results are straight-up with no consideration for point spread.)
Number of Final Four teams that were #1 seeds in a given year:
All 4: zero times
3 of 4: three times
2 of 4: 10 times
1 of 4: eight times
0 of 4: zero times
Very interesting . . . never all four, but never none – one or two 18 of the last 21 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semifinals in your bracket.
Which one? Key fact to consider: Of the 84 Final Four teams in our sample, 32 failed to meet ALL of the following conditions:
+ Made tourney the prior year.
+ Had a preseason AP All-American.
+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.
+ Got at least 35% of scoring from their frontcourt (forwards and centers).
Stunningly, of the 32 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions, only 5 made the Final Four!
But don't count on #1 seeds falling easily:
84-0 in the first round.
72 of 84 (86%) make it to the Sweet 16.
58 of 84 (69%) make it to the Elite 8!
Which leads to a key point – seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the second round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far as even the Sweet 16.
In the Elite 8, #1s are only 21-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 15 of 18 games to reach the Final Four.
Non-#1s
#2 seeds are 80-4 in the first round; but #2 are only 16-14 in the second round vs. #10 seeds.
#3 seeds are 70-14 in the 1st round – but only 46% make it to the Sweet 16!
#4 seeds are 67-17 in the 1st round – but only 44% make it to the Sweet 16!
#13 and #14 seeds combined have won 31 first-round games, but are only 5-26 in the second round.
At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the first round every year but one since 1988. Over the last five tournaments, #5 seeds are only 11-9 vs. #12 seeds.
Which leaves #10, #11, and #12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win in the first round, these sleepers are shockingly almost 50% (41-44) to win in the second round and move on to the Sweet 16. Teams with automatic bids do significantly better than teams who are chosen for an at-large bid.
The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 27 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds lower) have faced favorites, winning only 4 of those 27 games.
Seeds of 84 Final Fours teams of the last 21 years:
#1: 36
#2: 18
#3: 11
#4: 8
#5: 4
#6: 3
#8: 3
#11: 1
87% of Final Four teams come from the top 4 seeds!
Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!
Of the last 21 champions, 12 were #1 seeds. Don't believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys – in the last 6 years, these conferences have:
+ sent less teams to the dance
+ with a lower average seed
+ won a lower percentage of games than in ANY other 5-year period of the last 21 years.
The gap between the super conferences and mid-Majors is widening.
Important game factors to keep in mind when picking winners:
Experience of both the players and the coach in the Big Dance - the more the better.
How the team did on the road during the season – NCAA Tournament games are road games.
Home-court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds.
Ignore bench depth – over the last 6 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters.
1. Pick the winner first.
Everyone gets hard nipples over being able to predict the "unbelievable" upset in the first round. But filling out your bracket is kind of like playing a par-5 golf hole (or a par-6, if you will): drive for show, putt for dough. You can't win your office pool if you don't pick the winner, because 99 percent of pools are weighted so that you get more points for picking winners later in the tournament. Bragging about that No. 13 beating that No. 4 seed is cute. But I'd rather be the guy running my mouth about how I'm going to spend your $10 after I won the whole NCAA Tournament pool.
So Step 1 in my NCAA Tournament bracket tips is to pick the winner. A No. 1 seed has won 21 of the past 29 tournaments so that's a good place to start. But try to pick a team that a majority of other people won't be backing. For instance, I bet that six of every 10 people in your office are going to pick <st1:state><st1lace>North Carolina</st1lace></st1:state> to win it all. Therefore, you can get an edge by being one of the other dudes that has <st1:city><st1lace>Memphis</st1lace></st1:city> or UCLA. That way, if your team does win you'll only be competing with a few other brackets. You can also use that same rationale for picking a No. 2 or a No. 3 seed, because if your horse comes in you're nearly guaranteed to cash.
And for chrissakes, if you fill out more than one bracket don't be fool enough to have the same team winning all of them.
2. Don't pick all the favorites.
You may want to have a No. 1 seed as your overall winner, but you really shouldn't have more than two No. 1's making the Final Four. In case you've been in an Afghani cave over the past decade, the NCAA Tournament is the most unpredictable sporting event on the calendar. Nothing goes according to plan. So expecting form to hold and for all the favorites to make it to the final weekend is naive.
At the end of the first weekend, two of the top eight teams (the No. 1's and the No. 2's) are going to be home. It happens every year. You don't have to try to predict which unfortunate souls those will be, but you can insulate yourself by putting some No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, and No. 6 teams in your Elite Eight.
3. Don't get Upset Crazy.
You don't get to brag if you pick every No. 13 seed to beat a No. 4 seed, and then one actually does. It doesn't work that way. You want to mix in a few random winners along the way but you don't want to try to predict the chaos that's about to ensue. That's the whole point of March: it's uncontrollable. It's hubris to think that you can predict every crazy twist and turn, and you're just going to screw your bracket if you try to do so.
This also goes back to what I mentioned before about the scoring in your league. You get more points by picking winners later in the tournament. So picking an upset in the first round really doesn't do much for you. Instead, think about Sweet 16 upsets between more evenly matched teams. Think about a No. 6 beating a No. 2 or a No. 4 picking off a No. 1.
4. Know when to kick Cinderella to the curb.
It's cool to pick a No. 12 to beat a No. 5. It happens all the time. But having that No. 12 seed rally all the way to the Elite Eight is a bit much. The underdogs can have their moment or moments in the opening weekend, but after that size and talent generally win out. Again, if something like this does happen the then it's likely going to blow a lot of people's brackets. As long as your title team doesn't get knocked out you can only do more damage by trying to predict it than you can by trying to avoid it.
Are you enjoying this column? Check out Doc's NCAA tournament seed history page. When it comes to betting college basketball our NCAA College Basketball Schedule feature is a must for any NCAA basketball fan. Our College Basketball Lines page is also must read when studding college basketball. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NCAA basketball handicapping.
5. Pay attention to W-L records.
This tip is more for people who maybe don't follow that much college basketball outside of their home conference or outside the BCS conferences. But you can tell a lot about a team based on what their record is, regardless of what league they are from. I'm not talking about the difference between a 25-9 team and a 22-10 squad. I'm talking about being able to spot a potential upset based on the fact that a team has an absurd record (like, say, 29-3). Teams with eye-popping records know one thing: winning. Those are teams you want to tab for an upset if they are the lower-seeded club because they clearly find ways to rack up Ws.
6. Trust your first instinct.
In the end, it's your bracket. Do what you want with it. It is supposed to be fun, and keep that in mind while you're inking up your paper. Don't try to outsmart yourself and go with your gut. If you can tab the winner you have a chance to win your bracket. If not, enjoy the ride.
For more info on Robert's members picks, check out his Insider Page here.
<o> </o>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 10"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 10"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COWNER%7E1.UND%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that's why they are top seeds. But you're not going to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let's take a look at how #1 seeds have historically done: (All stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a 64-team tournament. All results are straight-up with no consideration for point spread.)
Number of Final Four teams that were #1 seeds in a given year:
All 4: zero times
3 of 4: three times
2 of 4: 10 times
1 of 4: eight times
0 of 4: zero times
Very interesting . . . never all four, but never none – one or two 18 of the last 21 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semifinals in your bracket.
Which one? Key fact to consider: Of the 84 Final Four teams in our sample, 32 failed to meet ALL of the following conditions:
+ Made tourney the prior year.
+ Had a preseason AP All-American.
+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.
+ Got at least 35% of scoring from their frontcourt (forwards and centers).
Stunningly, of the 32 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions, only 5 made the Final Four!
But don't count on #1 seeds falling easily:
84-0 in the first round.
72 of 84 (86%) make it to the Sweet 16.
58 of 84 (69%) make it to the Elite 8!
Which leads to a key point – seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the second round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far as even the Sweet 16.
In the Elite 8, #1s are only 21-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 15 of 18 games to reach the Final Four.
Non-#1s
#2 seeds are 80-4 in the first round; but #2 are only 16-14 in the second round vs. #10 seeds.
#3 seeds are 70-14 in the 1st round – but only 46% make it to the Sweet 16!
#4 seeds are 67-17 in the 1st round – but only 44% make it to the Sweet 16!
#13 and #14 seeds combined have won 31 first-round games, but are only 5-26 in the second round.
At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the first round every year but one since 1988. Over the last five tournaments, #5 seeds are only 11-9 vs. #12 seeds.
Which leaves #10, #11, and #12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win in the first round, these sleepers are shockingly almost 50% (41-44) to win in the second round and move on to the Sweet 16. Teams with automatic bids do significantly better than teams who are chosen for an at-large bid.
The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 27 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds lower) have faced favorites, winning only 4 of those 27 games.
Seeds of 84 Final Fours teams of the last 21 years:
#1: 36
#2: 18
#3: 11
#4: 8
#5: 4
#6: 3
#8: 3
#11: 1
87% of Final Four teams come from the top 4 seeds!
Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!
Of the last 21 champions, 12 were #1 seeds. Don't believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys – in the last 6 years, these conferences have:
+ sent less teams to the dance
+ with a lower average seed
+ won a lower percentage of games than in ANY other 5-year period of the last 21 years.
The gap between the super conferences and mid-Majors is widening.
Important game factors to keep in mind when picking winners:
Experience of both the players and the coach in the Big Dance - the more the better.
How the team did on the road during the season – NCAA Tournament games are road games.
Home-court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds.
Ignore bench depth – over the last 6 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters.
1. Pick the winner first.
Everyone gets hard nipples over being able to predict the "unbelievable" upset in the first round. But filling out your bracket is kind of like playing a par-5 golf hole (or a par-6, if you will): drive for show, putt for dough. You can't win your office pool if you don't pick the winner, because 99 percent of pools are weighted so that you get more points for picking winners later in the tournament. Bragging about that No. 13 beating that No. 4 seed is cute. But I'd rather be the guy running my mouth about how I'm going to spend your $10 after I won the whole NCAA Tournament pool.
So Step 1 in my NCAA Tournament bracket tips is to pick the winner. A No. 1 seed has won 21 of the past 29 tournaments so that's a good place to start. But try to pick a team that a majority of other people won't be backing. For instance, I bet that six of every 10 people in your office are going to pick <st1:state><st1
lace>North Carolina</st1lace></st1:state> to win it all. Therefore, you can get an edge by being one of the other dudes that has <st1:city><st1lace>Memphis</st1lace></st1:city> or UCLA. That way, if your team does win you'll only be competing with a few other brackets. You can also use that same rationale for picking a No. 2 or a No. 3 seed, because if your horse comes in you're nearly guaranteed to cash. And for chrissakes, if you fill out more than one bracket don't be fool enough to have the same team winning all of them.
2. Don't pick all the favorites.
You may want to have a No. 1 seed as your overall winner, but you really shouldn't have more than two No. 1's making the Final Four. In case you've been in an Afghani cave over the past decade, the NCAA Tournament is the most unpredictable sporting event on the calendar. Nothing goes according to plan. So expecting form to hold and for all the favorites to make it to the final weekend is naive.
At the end of the first weekend, two of the top eight teams (the No. 1's and the No. 2's) are going to be home. It happens every year. You don't have to try to predict which unfortunate souls those will be, but you can insulate yourself by putting some No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, and No. 6 teams in your Elite Eight.
3. Don't get Upset Crazy.
You don't get to brag if you pick every No. 13 seed to beat a No. 4 seed, and then one actually does. It doesn't work that way. You want to mix in a few random winners along the way but you don't want to try to predict the chaos that's about to ensue. That's the whole point of March: it's uncontrollable. It's hubris to think that you can predict every crazy twist and turn, and you're just going to screw your bracket if you try to do so.
This also goes back to what I mentioned before about the scoring in your league. You get more points by picking winners later in the tournament. So picking an upset in the first round really doesn't do much for you. Instead, think about Sweet 16 upsets between more evenly matched teams. Think about a No. 6 beating a No. 2 or a No. 4 picking off a No. 1.
4. Know when to kick Cinderella to the curb.
It's cool to pick a No. 12 to beat a No. 5. It happens all the time. But having that No. 12 seed rally all the way to the Elite Eight is a bit much. The underdogs can have their moment or moments in the opening weekend, but after that size and talent generally win out. Again, if something like this does happen the then it's likely going to blow a lot of people's brackets. As long as your title team doesn't get knocked out you can only do more damage by trying to predict it than you can by trying to avoid it.
Are you enjoying this column? Check out Doc's NCAA tournament seed history page. When it comes to betting college basketball our NCAA College Basketball Schedule feature is a must for any NCAA basketball fan. Our College Basketball Lines page is also must read when studding college basketball. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NCAA basketball handicapping.
5. Pay attention to W-L records.
This tip is more for people who maybe don't follow that much college basketball outside of their home conference or outside the BCS conferences. But you can tell a lot about a team based on what their record is, regardless of what league they are from. I'm not talking about the difference between a 25-9 team and a 22-10 squad. I'm talking about being able to spot a potential upset based on the fact that a team has an absurd record (like, say, 29-3). Teams with eye-popping records know one thing: winning. Those are teams you want to tab for an upset if they are the lower-seeded club because they clearly find ways to rack up Ws.
6. Trust your first instinct.
In the end, it's your bracket. Do what you want with it. It is supposed to be fun, and keep that in mind while you're inking up your paper. Don't try to outsmart yourself and go with your gut. If you can tab the winner you have a chance to win your bracket. If not, enjoy the ride.
For more info on Robert's members picks, check out his Insider Page here.
<o
> </o>
I usually look at senior leadership, experience.
Solid point guard play.
How the teams finished their last 5 games of the season + conf. tourney.
How well the team rebounds.
If they turn the ball over a lot or not.
There's tons of info just have to go with your gut.
I won my pool last year cause I usually always pick Kansas to go far and it finally paid off.
Usually I'm out of the pool after the 1st weekend cause Kansas chokes.
Solid point guard play.
How the teams finished their last 5 games of the season + conf. tourney.
How well the team rebounds.
If they turn the ball over a lot or not.
There's tons of info just have to go with your gut.
I won my pool last year cause I usually always pick Kansas to go far and it finally paid off.
Usually I'm out of the pool after the 1st weekend cause Kansas chokes.
