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Stats are definitely overrated, and parity this year in football seems pretty crazy. Crappy teams are beating good teams and not many teams are being consistently dominant.
Baltimore's streak of allowing <100 yds/game rushing was pretty impressive.i think its going on 26. today they let up like <60 yds rushing
I'm not sure I follow you guys... my spreadsheet is HIGHLY BASED... well... 100% based on statistics. My actual decision is not based on that alone though.
My sheet has helped me to a 60%+ season. Maybe it's just helping me weed out games I want to look at but those are games I expect value to be in. I don't understand how you can say stats are overrated.
If they are, but maybe only a little bit--they should still be used in help determining an outcome of a game, right?
How often would you pick a team who has scored 0 TD's on the season vs a Team scoring 4 TD's a game? The spread is +25 It's a stat right? Just making an extreme example.
My sheet has helped me to a 60%+ season. Maybe it's just helping me weed out games I want to look at but those are games I expect value to be in. I don't understand how you can say stats are overrated.
If they are, but maybe only a little bit--they should still be used in help determining an outcome of a game, right?
How often would you pick a team who has scored 0 TD's on the season vs a Team scoring 4 TD's a game? The spread is +25 It's a stat right? Just making an extreme example.
I take that back then.... you cant deny your argument and system being so successful. The NFL isn't as emotion-based as ncaaf too, so stats for the nfl can be more useful than college football.
What stats do you consider? I think everyone internally thinks about stats before making a decision if they don't look at any real stats.
What stats do you consider? I think everyone internally thinks about stats before making a decision if they don't look at any real stats.
Not trying to knock anyone that plays games mainly based on stats. There are plenty of successful cappers that are stat players with Ace being a good example. Personally GoGo does not really look at any game type stats when making selections. Guessing the majority of the public looks at stats particularly in this day and age with fantasy football being so popular. So when they see statistcal mismatches or matchup mismatches like No 1 rushing offense vs no 28 rushing defense they are all over the No 1 rushing team. Now the oddsmakers take into account much of what the public thinks though how much they take into account is debatable.
But assuming they are taking that public opinion into account then the line being set has already been influenced somewhat by the publics perception of stats. So taking that one step further in many ways (again not all) the line has been set taking into account statistical mismatches or advantages. So in the case of some games there is no perceived value to the statistical bettor. Now obviously depending on your statistical system you are using you still may find value in the line and thus its a play for the statistical bettor.
There are so many other factors outside of stats that GoGo finds useful and has successfully exploited. Personally in the NFL, more so then college, GoGo does not feel stats are as big a deal. From week to week good NFL coaches and good schemes can neutralize statistical mismatches. The NFL is grind from week to week with many ebs and flows and there are many situational factors that can be exploited. If you look at the Colts/Indy matchup on MNF on paper the stats strongly favor the Titans and they may well blow the Colts out. In College stats are probably more useful for the stats capper due to the talent level being lower and the differences in coaching.
There are obviously many ways to bang a whore so to each his own. Good luck says GoGo.
I've had many discussions over how valuable stats are. My opinion is that they should account for 50% of the handicapping. The other 50% should be trends. There are several cappers on here that just go by trends and have good records.
There should be a system that integrates both of these methods and weighs both factors.
There should be a system that integrates both of these methods and weighs both factors.
Top 5 statistic of spread covers in my opinion:
_ Vs public teams
_ Rivalry (special in State rivalry like TB vs Miami, away team always win and covers outright (hmm... almost)
_ 2 good teams played, go with dog, away ( like Pitts vs NYG)
_ Weather factor( not snow nor rain, but wind gust)
_ Injury QB won't matter, it only HYPE to stay away.
_ Vs public teams
_ Rivalry (special in State rivalry like TB vs Miami, away team always win and covers outright (hmm... almost)
_ 2 good teams played, go with dog, away ( like Pitts vs NYG)
_ Weather factor( not snow nor rain, but wind gust)
_ Injury QB won't matter, it only HYPE to stay away.
Good to know i'm not the only one.
