Western michigan/kent tuesday night game

[Heatwave]

Don't really have much time for writeups, but post plays in record tracker forum (link below). It has been a good year so far, and have a little bit of extra time, so thought I would throw this one out here.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1060668&page=3


KENT +21.5 -115 Over Western Michigan

Of course, WM at 9-0 could easily overwhelm Kent and win by 40, but based on the stats, I think they may be ripe for an upset here. Kent is probably the best if not one of the best defenses in the MAC. Actually, the last 4 weeks, I have them a schedule adjusted 12th in the nation. Offensively, they are not very good, at 103rd. Kent is a running team - overall the last 4 weeks they have run the ball 71% of the time, which is very high (average team runs ball 56% of the time). Western Michigan is offensively balanced (58% run) and rank 28th overall, but defensively, they rank 91st against the run the last 4 weeks.

So, based on that, you have what seemingly appears to be a fairly even matchup on paper, plus you get the home team in nationally televised game getting 3 TD's plus. There is potential look ahead as well, with Toledo in 2 weeks and possible MAC championship after that. Again, no doubt that the better athletes reside with WM, but this is very good spot for Kent.

 

[r.a.]

Kent St. star safety, Nate Holley, was arrested Friday on a kidnapping charge, so he has been suspended. Starting quarterback, Nick Holley, is Nate’s twin brother, and he also happens to be the starting quarterback for Kent State. The Weather Channel forecast for Kent, Ohio says there's anywhere from 85-95% chance of rain from 5 pm to 9 pm. Goes down to 65% at 10 and then decreases to 30% by midnight. Game starts at 7:30 so, as of now, rain for most of the game. Kent's stadium has turf which still is pretty slick in the rain.

 

[Heatwave]

Holley is a big loss, but pretty sure that info already factored into the current line.

Bad weather to me would favor the running team and the slower team (Kent).

But, I don't think this has huge effect.

 

[Will.I.Am]

I will admit I knew nothing about Nate being the twin brother of starting QB, just because I mostly know nothing about these MAC teams, but good info and general train of thought would have to say he might not mentally be focused and like I said in my thread, the dismissal in itself could be a distraction for a 3-6 team, but now that you bring up his brother, its gotta be weighing on him you would think. I agree with the stats on the running game, but they only avg 176 rushing per game, so although its OK its not like its great, and WMU just has a lot in front of them to stay focused with one of the best young coaches in the country. never root for anyone to lose, but I am on the other side.

 

[Heatwave]

Lots of love in the forum for Western Michigan on this one, and was not quite sure why. Stats seemed pretty obvious that it would be a difficult game for WM. Not every game plays out in real life as it does on paper, but a lot of "feeling" plays on this one.

 

[JrBoy]

Hey heat wave , was just checking out your plays for today. Is the bowling green Akron 72, is that over the total or under? Thanks

 

[Will.I.Am]

well, the almost 5-1 run vs pass play calling ratio is a bit insane. WMU knew they were clearly better, and although wmu that got INT back but obv kent state is not good at passing the ball, so an INT was not out of the norm. WMU gave a TD on first off play of the game, which, although an entire game to make it up, ended up being the difference. It was obv pretty early that WMU was going to be very vanilla, and not try anything. You have one of the best WR in the country and you barely target him and he only gets one catch, I mean PJ went against everything we knew. I won my teaser so I am not lashing out about the loss, but no way anyone seen WMU going into a shell and basically doing just enough to win.

 

[Will.I.Am]

also, nothing was there in favor of Kent St that said they were the right pick...every trend, every game this year, most of the numbers throughout the season pointed towards west mich being the "correct" play. obv that's not what happened but..better team, better ATS, didn't have anyone kicked off the team for kidnapping, better numbers, beat better teams, (yes I know KSU played PSU and Bama) but jesus what did they take from those games...anyways, on to the next mac money pits, but WMU covers prob 9/10 times this season, just so happens they didn't last night

 

[Heatwave]

Kent defense is very good even without its star. Not knocking you at all here or the play, as it is one game in one week of CFB. I just noticed that a lot of posters were on WMU without any reasoning other than "they are better so they should stomp them". WM a good team, but 21 points on the road against a good defense is a lot to ask, especially when they haven't been stopping the run well lately and all Kent can do is run.