West coast week 10

[Conan]

For one thing, most of the Pac games this week involve 2TD point-spreads or
more. This is stressful so I'm taking my time to properly vet these contests.

However there is one that sticks out to me right off the bat...

Colorado -12/UCLA

I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about this game but the thing that I just can't
let go without saying something about it is UCLA's ground game. It's utterly
ridiculous that Jim Mora's Bruins are ranked 128th in rushing over 3/4 of the
season. WOW !!

You won't be able to stay in games @Colorado with numbers like that.

 

[DC.]

looking forward to your insight on ...

san diego state/hawaii
washington/cal
oregon/usc
stanford/oregon state

usc oregon should be a scoring fest...washington should easily route cal

 

[solrosenberg]

DC agree about U Dub, should run up and down the field on Cal's defense.

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Hey Conan, I just wanted to say thanks for your great work. Your picks helped me justify going to see the Cubs world series game with my girlfriend Sunday night. Hopefully there will be plenty more chances for this group, but you never know.

 

[KingEleven]

best of luck

:toast:

 

[indiana]

Conan.........appreciate your write ups with your thought pattern............BOL with all your action this week............indy

 

[ThaDude]

Conan,

Is Colorado 5 points better than Wazzu on a nuetral field?

Is Colorado 9.5 points better than Utah on a nuetral?

That is what Colorado -12 is implying assuming home field is worth standard 3.

 

[Conan]

Conan,

Is Colorado 5 points better than Wazzu on a nuetral field?

Is Colorado 9.5 points better than Utah on a nuetral?

That is what Colorado -12 is implying assuming home field is worth standard 3.

Things don't usually follow with numerical precision that way dude.
Every situation is different. Sometimes they are similar. This week
the weak point that the Buffs should be able to exploit is the Bruin
funk, especially their OL dysfunction. Also Rosen isn't 100% and
probably won't play. Something about a pinched nerve in his
shoulder. I forgot his name at the moment but the Buffs have a CB
that will play on Sundays. I like their passing defense and their all
around defense too. Meanwhile UCLA finds itself in a road funk as
I pointed out and Mora IMO is on the hottest seat in the PAC. You
know what I think about MacIntyre.

Liufau is badass too don't forget. Very much so at home.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

the over got hit by someone too....

 

[Conan]

DC agree about U Dub, should run up and down the field on Cal's defense.

I'm thinking the same thing. But have you noticed that CAL has a couple of badass running backs (which they traditionally do)... a kid named Mohammad and another guy. They rushed for 100+ yards apiece last week. I also think TE Chad Hanson (#1 receiver in the FBS) will play healthy this week. And Davis Webb, well Webb is Webb. I say 80 points AT LEAST

CAL/Udub O77½

 

[Conan]

Thadude,

I forgot to mention that a team's current attitude is huge when it comes to betting ATS.
(assuming that the linemakers have done their job... and they usually do.)

 

[Conan]

52-35 thereabouts

 

[Conan]

looking forward to your insight on ...

san diego state/hawaii
washington/cal
oregon/usc
stanford/oregon state

usc oregon should be a scoring fest...washington should easily route cal

I say lay the wood (-21) in the SDSU/Hawaii game.

I'd wait a little longer to see if you can get more points with Oregon +17/USC
In case no one's noticed the Ducks have looked like their old selves again in the
previous 3 quarters played with Herbert calling the signals. So far he looks to me
like the right guy for the job.

 

[DC.]

I say lay the wood (-21) in the SDSU/Hawaii game.

I'd wait a little longer to see if you can get more points with Oregon +17/USC
In case no one's noticed the Ducks have looked like their old selves again in the
previous 3 quarters played with Herbert calling the signals. So far he looks to me
like the right guy for the job.

i agree on the ducks they look much better with herbert on offense...defensively they are still pathetic so i expect a high scoring game

 

[Conan]

More on SDSU/Hawaii...

I believe the Aztecs will effectively bottle up Hawaii's scoring
and hold them to 17 points or thereabouts. I realize that Dru
Browne, Hawaii's QB is much improved over the man he
replaced but this game represents a true test for the Bow's
passing offense vs the #20 passing defense in the country.
SDSU is giving up just 189 ypg through the air and their
rushing defense is ranked #2 in the nation (90 ypg). Then of
course you've heard of Donnel Pumphrey, SDSU's running
back who leads the country with a 184 ypg. running the ball.
At home in SD this game is an awful mismatch.

SDSU -21/Hawaii

 

[Conan]

Watching the CO/UCLA game...

I didn't know this but John Fafaul, the Bruin QB has thrown
9 picks so far this season. Figuring that Rosen has started
most of UCLA's games, that's a heap of picks in very little
playing time. I know the kid can move with his feet but 3
or 4 picks per game will not get him many wins. He reminds
me of Derek Anderson of the Beavers... back when he was
their starter, he was known as an interception machine.

 

[sendacash]

I did not bet this game, but it appears the Pac-12 officials have taken a side here. My goodness, Buffs need to lean on the run game more

 

[Conan]

Colorado -12/UCLA

Weird game.

Penalties:
Over 24½ .. +800
Under 24½ . -600

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Colorado game was the worst game I've seen all year. Unbelievable performance by MacIntyre's squad

 

[PeePee]

and they still won by 10. Right pick on that game but we know how it goes it gambling. I would take Col -13 vs. UCLA 9 out of 10 games and very sure would profit.
How many time you catch the least penalized team in PAC 12 get flagged like they did? Or, throw the most INT in 4 years.... all in same game.