West Coast/Pac-10 Week 12

[Conan]

Oregon St backers....

I honestly think Canfield starting is a good thing for the Beavers. Aside from his early pick 6 against ASU he's been pretty darn good. Completing about 70% of his passes for an average of a little over 9yds per completion. He has a stronger arm than Moevao and his mobility shouldn't be too much of a factor since Cal doesn't get to the QB all that well. With OSU's size at WR against Cal's shorter db's and Morales ready to go, I think OSU has a recipe for success against Cal this week.

Sprinkle in OSU's late season record under Riley, OSU's vastly improving defense, home field ATS advantage, Cal's past couple seasons of implosions, Riley being a better coach than Tedford (IMO)....Bottom line is, even with Canfield at QB, Beavers get the job done Saturday.

One last point here I can't emphasize enough... how Moevao's leadership and attitude on the field seems to add spark to their offense. Granted Canfield is throwing very well and has completed 70% of his passes in the 2 games he's subbed for Moevao. So they are not going to go down easy if they do. But I don't feel the same about the Beaver offense when the Pac-10 conferences most improved player since last season is sitting on the bench.

 

[Conan]

What do you think about the Wash/Ucla Under 47.5? I could see a lot of turnovers, but also hopefully a lot of fg's and punts.

Well either of these 2 teams would consider putting up 20 points a scoring binge against any other team in the conference, but against each other there's a chance they could get into a limited shootout because neither defense is solid by a long shot and both are fighting (each other) to avoid lower position in the standings. But I don't think that will happen. 24 points each (there abouts) looks highly unlikely.

I think you have a winner. The under here looks about as good as anything else on the board this week.

Just one thing I want to add to that XCal...

People can easily get trapped into evaluating teams in Week 12 based on what they did the rest of the year... and I specifically mean by that is that they expect teams to still show a lot of the same weaknesses they showed in the first half of the season. That is a recipe for disaster because a lot of things can change during the year.

I for one think that both UW's and WSU's offenses have shown a spark, just a spark that should still be smoldering so I don't think either will just be drubbed the way they have been all season long. Of course they could start to cough and choke because this is all something new, but chances are they will perform better with some experience under their belt. You really have to get down and evaluate the talent more closely at this point because inexperience is less of a factor than it was earlier in the year.

 

[trentmoney]

Just one thing I want to add to that XCal...

People can easily get trapped into evaluating teams in Week 12 based on what they did the rest of the year... and I specifically mean by that is that they expect teams to still show a lot of the same weaknesses they showed in the first half of the season. That is a recipe for disaster because a lot of things can change during the year.

I for one think that both UW's and WSU's offenses have shown a spark, just a spark that should still be smoldering so I don't think either will just be drubbed the way they have been all season long. Of course they could start to cough and choke because this is all something new, but chances are they will perform better with some experience under their belt. You really have to get down and evaluate the talent more closely at this point because inexperience is less of a factor than it was earlier in the year.

great point you bring up bc i use a lot of stats...

i check year numbers for one set-
then i check last 3 or 4 depending on opponents for another set...
my year numbers had me taking cal over oregon st this week
my last 3/4 had oregon st over cal
hence no play

if you looked at nc st stats for year they would look like one of the worst teams in the ncaa...
if you take their last 3/4 they look like a winning team

if both year and recent match up you're looking at a consistent team...

:toast:

 

[Conan]

OK everyone, It is getting close to the end of the week and there are still 2 very big questions remaining that have not been answered to my liking...

1. Lyle Moevao, the difference maker because of his leadership and attitude. His loss DOES matter despite the fact that Canfield has been throwing the ball very well. I'm glad for that because I wouldn't give the Beavers 1/2 a chance if that wasn't true. I still can't count them out here because they know they've lost to this Cal team the last 2 times they've played them at Reser and their work is cut out for them. That's a good thing for a team like the Beavers who practice and play with a blue collar attitude. But Cal is a very good team. They are the best opponent the Beavers have seen at home all year since USC came to town. I am close to buying back my bet if Moevao's a no go tomorrow. I don't believe Riley's day-to-day appraisal of him because it's to his advantage to keep Cal guessing who will start.

2. Stanford + the points vs USC is about to get bought back too because I am not going to bite on the idea that Toby Gerhardt is OK and ready to go. Maybe so, so I'll give it some time, but he is 1/2 of their offense and without him running the clock and gaining yards, USC's offense will get plenty of TOP for Sanchez to pick apart Stanford's terrible pass defense and move down the field. This leaves Stanford's red zone defense way too vulnerable to stop USC from scoring, almost at will when they get close. That's too much for what's left of Stanford's offense to keep up with. 3 TD's is hardly enough to cover that possiblity. With him playing, it's a whole other matter.

The rest of my picks look solid.

I like what Oregon will do via their rushing attack to Zona's poor run defense vs good rushing offenses.

I hate what will happen again to SJSU with Kyle Reed on the sidelines. No offense vs a team that's been awesome lately with that pistol offense Ault runs over there. HFA or not, I think the Spartans are sunk without Reed.

ASU -1000000 vs WSU. Maybe at home Lopina can put up some points and Levensall can mess around too with some success, but on the road at Sun Devil Stadium with a bunch of frustrated fans waiting to let it all rip in this game is no place to expect WSU to do very much. They'll get swamped like the rest of the time, maybe a little worse.

UW+7.5/UCLA... I like it straight up. UCLA is a disaster traveling and this could be the week when the Huskies show up and win a game.

 

[AR_23]

ASU -1000000 :lol:

 

[Conan]

ASU -1000000 :lol:

5-4

My prediction for the final score in the Apple Cup.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

Its insane ASU is given 34 points against any BCS conference team...just shows how god awful Washington State is.

there is a reason they are laying so many.. ASU will KILL this high school team. .

 

[ProphetablePicks]

OK everyone, It is getting close to the end of the week and there are still 2 very big questions remaining that have not been answered to my liking...

1. Lyle Moevao, the difference maker because of his leadership and attitude. His loss DOES matter despite the fact that Canfield has been throwing the ball very well. I'm glad for that because I wouldn't give the Beavers 1/2 a chance if that wasn't true. I still can't count them out here because they know they've lost to this Cal team the last 2 times they've played them at Reser and their work is cut out for them. That's a good thing for a team like the Beavers who practice and play with a blue collar attitude. But Cal is a very good team. They are the best opponent the Beavers have seen at home all year since USC came to town. I am close to buying back my bet if Moevao's a no go tomorrow. I don't believe Riley's day-to-day appraisal of him because it's to his advantage to keep Cal guessing who will start.

2. Stanford + the points vs USC is about to get bought back too because I am not going to bite on the idea that Toby Gerhardt is OK and ready to go. Maybe so, so I'll give it some time, but he is 1/2 of their offense and without him running the clock and gaining yards, USC's offense will get plenty of TOP for Sanchez to pick apart Stanford's terrible pass defense and move down the field. This leaves Stanford's red zone defense way too vulnerable to stop USC from scoring, almost at will when they get close. That's too much for what's left of Stanford's offense to keep up with. 3 TD's is hardly enough to cover that possiblity. With him playing, it's a whole other matter.

The rest of my picks look solid.

I like what Oregon will do via their rushing attack to Zona's poor run defense vs good rushing offenses.

I hate what will happen again to SJSU with Kyle Reed on the sidelines. No offense vs a team that's been awesome lately with that pistol offense Ault runs over there. HFA or not, I think the Spartans are sunk without Reed.

ASU -1000000 vs WSU. Maybe at home Lopina can put up some points and Levensall can mess around too with some success, but on the road at Sun Devil Stadium with a bunch of frustrated fans waiting to let it all rip in this game is no place to expect WSU to do very much. They'll get swamped like the rest of the time, maybe a little worse.

UW+7.5/UCLA... I like it straight up. UCLA is a disaster traveling and this could be the week when the Huskies show up and win a game.

I want to trust WASH here but after that 2nd half against ASU last week I just cant do it.. they were covering the entire first half and than into the early part of the 3rd quarter playing well and than fell apart.. good luck. .just not sure i can trust Wash.. but I dont like UCLA either. hno:

 

[Conan]

great point you bring up bc i use a lot of stats...

i check year numbers for one set-
then i check last 3 or 4 depending on opponents for another set...
my year numbers had me taking cal over oregon st this week
my last 3/4 had oregon st over cal
hence no play

if you looked at nc st stats for year they would look like one of the worst teams in the ncaa...
if you take their last 3/4 they look like a winning team

if both year and recent match up you're looking at a consistent team...

:toast:

I like your idea of using 2 sets of numbers when you go by stats.

I just keep a mental record of these things because I follow the teams progressions very closely and when something changes, I sense it. Then when I look for the numbers, they only go to prove what I already know. That's my system because it saves me shitloads of time and allows me to do a lot of other kinds of digging around. Also, I can always dig out the stats numerous places when I feel the need so I can double check on what I think is happening.

Maybe using a first 6-game number and a since then number... maybe this should be an adjustable number, not just 6 for every team because they develop at different rates. But still, teams change during the year and you have to detect that or you will lose a lot of wagers.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

Conan, I am on ASU with you big. They will put on a show Saturday and Erickson will not let up! I wont be surprised if they put up 60 plus here..

 

[Conan]

Conan, I am on ASU with you big. They will put on a show Saturday and Erickson will not let up! I wont be surprised if they put up 60 plus here..

Well on top of that PP, it goes both ways. I think WSU will let up in this spot traveling. Glad to see they seem to have at least blinked once or twice in that coma they've been in, but I'd wait for them to go back home before I'd expect any kind of effort from that team. After the first 2 or 3 TD's ASU scores, WSU will hang up their cleats and wait it out, then just punch thier time cards when the game is done. They won't keep trying.

 

[bigwaltone]

Somebody just hit the ducks hard.up to 6

 

[gynecologist]

Was Oregon Dr.Bobbed? Thats quite the line move..

 

[Conan]

Was Oregon Dr.Bobbed? Thats quite the line move..

Must have been. That's huge for one day this late after the numbers first get posted up. Did Tuitama get into an auto accident or something like that?

 

[Conan]

ANYWAY,

That's not the reason I came here at this hour.

This is:

Moevao Expected to Start Against California

November 14, 2008 12:30 AM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

A week of speculation ends with a mild surprise: Oregon State coach Mike Riley told reporters Thursday night that Lyle Moevao will start at quarterback for Oregon State in the Beavers' critical matchup with California on Saturday.
Moevao sat out the past six quarters due to a strained shoulder, yielding to backup Sean Canfield, who finished the job against Arizona State and started and won at UCLA last weekend.

Moevao still feels pain in his shoulder, and if he suffers a setback between now and then, Canfield will get the call. But Riley told The Oregonian that he's "pretty sure" Moevao will be ready to play.


NOW....
If all this is true, I'm sticking with the Beavers. As I said at first, I think they catch Cal at a soft time after their 32ppg offense was bi**h-slapped and nearly shutout by USC last week. Maybe they don't feel so good about themselves. The Beaver's defense can be just as aggressive as USC's... and often is. Watch Kevin Riley closely in this game. He will be a barometer for the rest of the Bear offense and what to expect.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

thanks for this latest article conan...

 

[Conan]

thanks for this latest article conan...

Well it looks like I will be taking the plunge here with you rooting on the sidelines Pags. I appreciate all of your support.

By the way, are you aware that Toby Gerhart is hurting with a hamstring injury? IMHO, that knocks the starch out of the Stanford play.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

conan,

I really don't think that's a bad decision as that's what my gut is telling me as well...yes, I read an article earlier in the week that detailed him not playing most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters of their game against Oregon and then just watched the tape of that game this afternoon...I do appreciate you mentioning something though...

 

[UoweDucks]

I actually think Kimble is a better weapon than Gearhart in this game. No one, and I mean no one is able to power run vs USC.

Best of luck this week!

 

[thesundevil]

will you have any more plays?