West Coast/Pac-10 Week 04

Conan · Sep 21, 2009

YTD: 7-13 -7U
and that's all I have to say

And as I used to do as kid when I did some scoring for the night bowling leagues...

This is a fence.
*********************************************

With that being said, I have significantly raised the bar for everything I post... and if it's only 2-3 picks, so be it.

Or.St. +2/Arizona ** Because I like the Beavers in this spot a lot. Surely this line is a little strange. I cannot see the Beavers dropping 2 in a row at home. They are not quitters by any stretch of the imagination, and when they take one on the chin, they can be counted on to strike back with a vengeance. I promise you that they are a little disappointed in their execution last week, having several opportunities to score within the red zone and coming away with just a FG or less isn't sitting well with them. Defensively you can count the blown assignments on your fingers on one hand but they were painful. I expect to see their defense turn up the heat. And I also expect to see a little creativity if they expect to spring Quiz and Quan consistently. They are well aware of what Zona brings to the table defensively.

Where is Zona's offense? If Scott is trying to find his rhythm and an identity, he's not likely going to find it this week. I am surprised that Zona's ground game has not been looking very good either. The Beavers are not the type of opponent where you would expect to see an opponent of theirs with rushing issues to get well. If Arizona is going to stay in this game, their defense must turn it up a notch or two. I expect them to put out an all out effort in that respect, perhaps holding Oregon St. to 20ish, not much more than that on the scoreboard. But they may not score more than a couple TD's themselves. I am also looking at betting a total in this game.

I'm taking my time. More opinions to follow.

Conan · Sep 21, 2009

Foles will be starting for the Wildcats.

nd2000 · Sep 21, 2009

Conan said:
Foles will be starting for the Wildcats.

What do you make of this. Oregon State still a good play?

asudevil88 · Sep 21, 2009

nd2000 said:
What do you make of this. Oregon State still a good play?

Anyone that watched the Iowa/AZ game knows it still is. Foles was only mildly successful in mop up duty.

There is a reason he is second string. He couldn't beat out the number one guy. Dykes was quoted after the game when someone asked about Foles. He said something to the effect that anyone questioning Scott as the starer should come to practice.

If Scott was the best guy they have, it's going to be a long season. Foles will get his chance. The rest of the schedule does Foles no favors.

The Iowa game showed the entire country what many on the West Coast already knew:

Arizona will get out coached in every game they play.
Arizona cannot play away from home.
Scott was wayyy overrated.
The defense isn't as good as expected.
The offense isn't as good as expected.
The lines on both sides will get pushed around by most in the Pac.

Iowa played a horrible game and still dominated. Arizona was lucky not to have been whipped 42-3.

Oregon State is one of the best plays on the board. Period.

Romanowski · Sep 21, 2009

is gronkowski possibly suiting up?

asudevil88 · Sep 21, 2009

Romanowski said:
is gronkowski possibly suiting up?

He is done for the year. He is having surgery.

Conan · Sep 21, 2009

Another game I am itching to play on is 100% flipped around from what I had originally expected.

Stanford is definitely an improved team, but what about the Huskies? They appear to have made a DRAMATIC turn around. Stanford is playing better football, and I have a lot of respect for their OL and rushing game. Hell, even Andrew Luck is an upgrade over Pritchard. However, the Huskies seem to have found this youth movement that has been playing with the volume knob turned way up. They've played tit for tat with schools they were never supposed to be able to do that with. Can this continue?

Two things about this game make me lean to UW.
1. Standford sucks in terms of HFA. It could be the lowest in the entire conference.
2. Luck vs. Locker

Udub needs to keep that kid Chris Owusu in check so they don't get burned for a punt or KO ret'd for a TD, keep his returns within reason. Locker has enough momentum to keep the Huskies back on their heels, but guys that are capable of the big play like Owusu or consistent ground and pound by Gerhart can strip that away. I'm not so sure it will be so easy for the Cardinal to match what Locker brings to the game, especially with his arm lately.

I really have to question how much Stanford's HFA will play into this. It usually doesn't matter. But I'm going to let all this settle in for a few days. What's the rush? At first, I gave this game to the Cardinal but now I have to think about it. Over a TD would have helped.

tread · Sep 21, 2009

Love your Oregon St play, as long as Quizz'z ankle is OK. Have you heard any updates?

ElTaino · Sep 21, 2009

Conan said:
Another game I am itching to play on is 100% flipped around from what I had originally expected.

Stanford is definitely an improved team, but what about the Huskies? They appear to have made a DRAMATIC turn around. Stanford is playing better football, and I have a lot of respect for their OL and rushing game. Hell, even Andrew Luck is an upgrade over Pritchard. However, the Huskies seem to have found this youth movement that has been playing with the volume knob turned way up. They've played tit for tat with schools they were never supposed to be able to do that with. Can this continue?

Two things about this game make me lean to UW.
1. Standford sucks in terms of HFA. It could be the lowest in the entire conference.
2. Luck vs. Locker

Udub needs to keep that kid Chris Owusu in check so they don't get burned for a punt or KO ret'd for a TD, keep his returns within reason. Locker has enough momentum to keep the Huskies back on their heels, but guys that are capable of the big play like Owusu or consistent ground and pound by Gerhart can strip that away. I'm not so sure it will be so easy for the Cardinal to match what Locker brings to the game, especially with his arm lately.

I really have to question how much Stanford's HFA will play into this. It usually doesn't matter. But I'm going to let all this settle in for a few days. What's the rush? At first, I gave this game to the Cardinal but now I have to think about it. Over a TD would have helped.

well, stanford has gerhart who i'd take over mcknight if we are talking about strictly RB duties.

the questions are.. is luck better than corp? will UW play with the same enthusiasm on the road against an unranked foe? can stanford stop a mobile QB?

Conan · Sep 21, 2009

El Taino said:
well, stanford has gerhart who i'd take over mcknight if we are talking about strictly RB duties.

the questions are.. is luck better than corp? will UW play with the same enthusiasm on the road against an unranked foe? Can Stanford stop a mobile QB?

Absolutely not. They are extremely stretched in manpower just to field a decent starting lineup. They even switched over a player or 2 from the offense just to add some necessary speed. Granted there is more speed than in the past, but they are not deep at many positions in the backfield and I'm not even sure about their DE's and LB's. Across the board they are better but they are not deep at all.

Then on UW's side of this, there's Jake Locker's newfound arm. Of all things Locker's passing game has sharpened up a lot. He's been throwing the accurate pass and his receivers have been hanging on to the ball. We understand that he won't lose yardage very often and will turn a broken play or coverage play into 10 yards rushing almost any time he feels like it. I think he may be better than Tebow (at least so far) because for one thing, he's built like a linebacker with excellent speed. He is a huge factor in UW's offense, he IS UW's offense. And he's adequate. With help, UW's offense seems more than adequate.

Also, WTF is with RB Chris Polk lately? Did someone gave him a compass and show him where North and South is on the field? I have not seen this kind of turnaround on an offense in a very long time. Jake Locker is still a junior, just getting to know his new OC's offense and a batch of new young WR's. Next year they will have a more experienced OL too. Locker in his senior season with an experienced OL and depth... let's think about that next spring. But they have been performing with heart and executing surprisingly well NOW.

From a Stanford perspective, I'd have bet the Cardinal in a heartbeat ever since this past spring, but after seeing which way these teams have been progressing lately, I'm not so sure Stanford isn't UW's next upset in the works.

Their first real road test...perhaps with Locker's leadership they can take it on the road and make it work? Remember Stanford has them beat with their OL. So is Locker enough? He's looked better than the Cardinal has lately. Is this where the Huskies stumble back to earth from being ranked #24 in the polls? Maybe not. It's hard to say how well either defense will do.

I'm being a devil's advocate because so many things seem to be in a state of flux. Man, Owusu and Gerhart are 2 very tough weapons that balance out UW's game and maybe then some? I wonder what Nick Holt has in mind for Andrew Luck this coming Saturday? Holt is very aggressive.

And on and on. It's very interesting to have all these different aspects to assimilate and see where it all ends up. Keeping up with the times, then seeing how it all shakes out.

Conan · Sep 21, 2009

And of course not to forget about USC and the high UW's players and fans got off that game... have they come down yet? It would help their cause to do that and I wonder if Sarkisian has even come down off his high too? If they have and can use the game as a stepping stone or confidence builder, they might do alright. After all it counts as just one win in the W/L column. But if Thursday comes around and they still think Saturday was yesterday, there goes all focus. I can't say what kind of character they have or if it's cool to assume they will handle it right or not... maybe someone close to the program can answer that question.

ca$hmoney · Sep 22, 2009

Stanford/UW looks like it should be a pretty high scoring game. What do you think?

Proman · Sep 22, 2009

100% Percent agree. This line really surprised me. Thought Oregon State would be a field goal or better favorite.

Conan · Sep 22, 2009

ca$hmoney said:
Stanford/UW looks like it should be a pretty high scoring game. What do you think?

Both of these coaches are real chess players. I'm thinking it may start out slow and end in a flair. Depending on the scoring output in the 1H, I would consider perhaps an over in the 2H. Both teams have QB's that can loosen up later in the game if they hanker to put some fast points on the board.

You'd think both teams would have a tendency to weaken later in games because they both lack depth defensively and even more than that in Washington's case. But that hasn't yet appeared to be a problem for them. I don't know where the Huskies have found this "closing energy" but there's no question about it. Their offense has been able drive the ball all the way through the 2nd half... at home anyway.

I don't think either defense will get it right for the majority of the game. But I don't think of the Huskies as a real scoring machine, thus far. However Stanford will get burned if Locker can throw well and also if he can spread their offense around like they did with both LSU and USC. He'd better make their TOP count because the rest of the time Gerhart will be running the ball down their throats. I have a feeling Andrew Luck's targets will be easier to find among UW's dbacks too. Yeah, there will likely be plenty of movement both directions. Sure, there definitely is potential for scoring here.

It looks so simple how can it turn out to be some sort of defensive ambush kind of game? Then again, Nick Holt is kind of a crazy man. But it will take a whole lot of that crazy to slow down Stanford's rushing game and I don't think they can do that. So can Locker answer? Hmmmm.

fugazi · Sep 22, 2009

Stanford/UW should be high scoring, Stanford will be able to run on UW and Locker will be making plays left and right on Stanford's defense. SHould be a good game, I really like what I've seen from the Pac-10 this year, a lot of solid teams with CAL and USC being elite, but other teams like UCLA, UW, Stanford, and Osu/Oregon all showing that they won't be rollovers either.

Conan · Sep 22, 2009

Here's an interesting update about USC's QB situation. It looks like Barkley will have his job back. I didn't realize that Aaron Corp threw for less yards in the UW game than any QB that's ever started for PC. Now that's some interesting trivia. USC going 0-10 on 3rd downs also speaks volumes.

This is from Rivals after Monday's practice:
<script language="Javascript" src="http://vmedia.rivals.com/js/swf.js" type="text/javascript"></script> <script language="Javascript"></script><object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" codebase="http://active.macromedia.com/flash2/cabs/swflash.cab#version=6,0,0,0" id="rvflash" width="620" height="60">
<embed src="http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf?h1=Practice+Insider%3A+All+Eyes+on+Barkley+&h2=&lwidth=620&lheight=60&lshadow=1&sFontColor=000000&sLink=" salign="lt" quality="best" scale="noborder" wmode="transparent" id="rvflash" name="rvflash" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" allowscriptaccess="always" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash" width="620" height="60"></object> <noscript>Practice Insider: All Eyes on Barkley
</noscript>
Bryan Fischer
September 21, 2009

<script language="javascript">document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</script> After passing for the fewest number of yards under Pete Carroll, all eyes figured to be on how quarterback Aaron Corp performed Monday. However just like he did at the beginning of the season, Matt Barkley was the one who turned heads.

<script language="Javascript">document.write(insertImage('http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/995/834205.jpg', '834205.jpg', 0, 267, 200, 1, 'Matt Barkley was back at practice Monday

', 'Gerard Martinez', 1253593440000, 'Barkley', 995, 'Align=Left'));</script><table width="208" align="Left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="202">

</td><td rowspan="4" width="6">

</td></tr><tr><td align="right">Gerard Martinez</td></tr><tr><td height="3">

</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Matt Barkley was back at practice Monday

</td></tr></tbody></table>The freshman picked up right where he left off before injuring his shoulder, throwing a tight spiral and making nearly every throw in his return to practice. Barkley spread the ball to receivers all over the field and threw beyond twenty yards several times.

"He did alright," Carroll said. "He's not 100 percent but he threw the ball pretty well. He wasn't able to throw the ball as hard as he would like but his motion was normal for the first time."

Barkley took reps with the first team during both the scout and team periods while last week's starter Aaron Corp split time with the first and second team and looked sharp throughout practice. Despite Barkley's return however, Carroll was non-committal about choosing a quarterback.

"I'd love for (Barkley) to come back and start on Saturday if he's ready to go," Carroll said. "It's encouraging today that Matt is going to be alright. I have no problem playing him if he's ok this week. The fact that he could practice today was a great sign."

Although it appears Barkley is on track to start against Washington State, Corp will prepare as the starter, similar to his approach last week. Not naming a starter until game time is something Carroll was criticized for last week but something he says he did for a reason.

"I decided when Matt was hurt that we have to get Aaron ready," Carroll said. "I wanted Aaron to get ready to play and start the football game and if something changed then we would deal with that when the time came. It never did change and it went all the way to kickoff.

"One of the reasons why I wanted it to be open is to make sure that Matt focused all week long and was preparing in the event that maybe he would wind up being well. I didn't want him to lose any of that edge, he hasn't been in that situation with us before."

With Barkley's return however, the open competition just got a little tighter.

Conan · Sep 22, 2009

This is still a little early to make much of, especially when you consider the quality of opposition but this is an eye-opener anyway. In the case of the Sun Devils, will the bye week help them when they travel to UGA? I think it will but their offense is still pretty anemic, but not bottom of the barrel. This here is about defense.

Total defense through week 3:

<table class="statstable" align="center"><tbody><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Name</th><th>Gm</th><th>Avg</th><th>Plays</th><th>Yds</th><th>Tds</th><th>YdsGm</th><th>Win</th><th>Loss</th><th>Ties</th><th>Natl
Rank</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td><td>Arizona St.</td><td>2</td><td> 2.90</td><td>103</td><td>299</td><td>2</td><td> 149.50</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr> <td>2</td><td>Southern California</td><td>3</td><td> 3.69</td><td>184</td><td>679</td><td>2</td><td> 226.33</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>12</td></tr> <tr> <td>3</td><td>Arizona</td><td>3</td><td> 4.29</td><td>174</td><td>746</td><td>6</td><td> 248.67</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>14</td></tr> <tr> <td>4</td><td>UCLA</td><td>3</td><td> 3.67</td><td>205</td><td>753</td><td>4</td><td> 251.00</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>16</td></tr> <tr> <td>5</td><td>California</td><td>3</td><td> 4.23</td><td>194</td><td>820</td><td>5</td><td> 273.33</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>24</td></tr> <tr> <td>6</td><td>Stanford</td><td>3</td><td> 5.10</td><td>203</td><td>1035</td><td>6</td><td> 345.00</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>64</td></tr> <tr> <td>7</td><td>Oregon St.</td><td>3</td><td> 5.40</td><td>198</td><td>1069</td><td>8</td><td> 356.33</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>72</td></tr> <tr> <td>8</td><td>Washington</td><td>3</td><td> 6.58</td><td>166</td><td>1093</td><td>7</td><td> 364.33</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>77</td></tr> <tr> <td>9</td><td>Oregon</td><td>3</td><td> 4.44</td><td>250</td><td>1109</td><td>10</td><td> 369.67</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>82</td></tr> <tr> <td>10</td><td>Washington St.</td><td>3</td><td> 7.56</td><td>213</td><td>1611</td><td>13</td><td> 537.00</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>119</td></tr></tbody></table>

WhateverMakesYouNervous · Sep 22, 2009

Despite what the ASU homer says the Arizona defense is pretty solid...especially their secondary. They were just on the field all day vs Iowa and since Arizona literally didnt pick up any 1st downs they wore down. I like the under and I'm on Ore St. as well. Foles is a pocket passer but apparently wasnt strong enough to supplant Matt Scott which is sad since Scott has proven to be less than D-1 talent.

asudevil88 · Sep 22, 2009

Weber Out

ASU's Weber out for 5-6 games
Linebacker Mike Nixon to help on kickoffs

Jeff Metcalfe - Sept. 22, 2009 09:40 AM
The Arizona Republic

Arizona State All-America kicker Thomas Weber will miss five or six games with a groin injury, coach Dennis Erickson said Tuesday.

ASU kicker Thomas Weber is likely to be out until November with a groin injury.

Weber, 2007 Groza Award winner as the nation's best kicker, was injured during practice Thursday and did not kick against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. He had a MRI exam Monday.

The junior could be out through October and miss more than half a season. True freshman walk-on Bobby Wenzig will replace Weber perhaps with help on kickoffs from linebacker Mike Nixon.

Wenzig was 5-of-5 on extra points and made a 24-yard field goal against Monroe. Nixon kicked and punted at Phoenix Sunnyslope High School where he also was a quarterback and safety.

Weber tied a school record with five field goals and set another with 20 points in the season opener against Idaho State on Sept. 5. He has 48 career field goals and until the injury was on pace to challenge Luis Zendejas' school career records
for field goals (81) and kicking points (380).

Delta00 · Sep 22, 2009

Arizona's front 7 got mauled by Iowa. I thought Matt Scott was showing some promise in the first few games but he had a miserable outing by the time he faced a real defense.

As far as Stanford being 7 point favorites over Washington, that jsust seems like a bizarre line and vegas must really be expecting a let down for washington. One thing of note, USC's OL dominated Washington the first 2 drives of the game, and then after that players say they got lax an lazy as UW's confidence grew. Stanford might be able to control UW as well, I still don't think much of UW's defense. Can't believe the line is so high and sounds like it's begging for blind UW money