D2 might not be so crazy afterall
http://www.msnbc.com/news/970515.asp?0cv=CB10
WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 — I know that what I am about to say may strike you as ridiculous. Political junkies will be justified in wondering whether I am engaging in hype, since I am a contract player with NBC and its cable affiliates. But I’ll say it anyway: The CNBC-Wall Street Journal debate this week in New York City could be a make-or-break event for Wesley Clark and, therefore, a pivotal moment in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
CLARK IS ON the launching pad, instantly ahead of the pack and running even or ahead of President Bush in new test match-ups. This week he either takes off or begins falling back to earth like the other mortals.
This already has been a vintage political season — meaning wild and unpredictable — and it’s only just begun. A few months ago, Bush looked nearly invincible in his flight suit. Now he looks like a guy whose ankles are weighed down by concrete blocks (jobs and Iraq). The gyrations of politics are everywhere. California is in terminal meltdown; political civil war rages in Texas; and perhaps the most important participants in the 2004 election — the leaders of al-Qaida — are waiting in the wings to do who knows what.
The Democratic Debate
Thursday's debate will be carried live on CNBC from 4-5:30 p.m. ET and rebroadcast in its entirety on MSNBC at 9 p.m. ET.
And now we have a Democratic presidential contest that seems to defy all attempts (by journalists and spinners) to give it shape: 10, count them, 10, candidates, all railing against Bush, but struggling to propound a vision of what should come after him; a press corps more suffocating, numerous and wired than ever, yet seemingly blind to the forest in these trees; an electorate bored and jaded, yet somehow (I think) yearning to be inspired.
This is a good time to take a look at the “horse race” as it is about to begin in earnest. Everything to this point has been gamesmanship on the farm and in the paddock. I know this is the biggest cliché in political journalism — comparing a presidential campaign to the Kentucky Derby. But, with such a large field, it seems to be the right analogy. Plus, I began my career in Louisville, and covered the Derby like everyone else in the newsroom.
Here’s how I think things line up, at least among the leading horses:
WESLEY CLARK
He’s a kitchen match that could set the woods ablaze. Clark has the most valuable possession in presidential campaigning: a BIG Reason to Run. It is: a coherent and detailed alternative to President Bush’s preemptive war theory for the eradication of terrorism (the most profound issue of our age). Others have Clark’s idea — military might plus shrewd global team building equals security — but he’s the only one who’s done it on the battlefield, and who has the street credentials and stripes to take on the commander in chief.
But winning presidential elections isn’t about resumes or personal track records. It isn’t about brains born with or fortunes amassed or medals for bravery won. It’s about coming across as level-headed, decent and sane. It’s about not seeming like you didn’t quite know what you were getting into when you decided to run. It’s about seeming well-informed and comfortable in areas outside of your expertise, and at ease on political center stage. Military and business heroes rarely make the transition well: Ross Perot, John Glenn and Al Haig are a few names that come to mind right away.
MSNBC.com's Politics section
Clark could defy that recent history. He’s already shown enormous potential. Many of my colleagues are snickering at our Newsweek poll, but it shows something important: With Al Gore and Hillary Rodham Clinton on the sidelines (where, I think, they are destined to stay) this race is wide open. More than that, Clark can move quickly into a real lead in the national polls if he does well at events such as the one this week in New York.
Democrats desperately want a winner and they think they may have one in Clark — if he’s for real. That means, among other things, that he has to cure himself of a handicap they call in baseball “rabbit ears.” A batter with “rabbit ears” is one who hears every jibe and taunt emanating from the opposing team’s dugout. You can’t get a hit if your mind is elsewhere than on the ball. Clark thinks he somehow can ensure, by the force of his own personality, that every story about him in every medium will fully reflect his views, nuance and all. He thinks he can get every opponent to acknowledge the subtleties of his statements. He has to learn to forget it, focusing on what you can control — what you say, not what they say.
HOWARD DEAN
Advertisement
For the first time in months, I’ve detected worry and even tinny bravado in the spinning I hear from Burlington, Vt. Dean has had an amazing few months. But as the race begins in earnest, his continued missteps (and his testy defense of them), and the withering crossfire he’s absorbed from rivals (notably John Kerry and Dick Gephardt) have left his handlers worried. Now that his expectations have been raised to the sky, especially in New Hampshire, he faces the task of defeating Kerry handily there. Anything less, ironically, will be considered something of a defeat.
And the advent of Clark has really cost the Dean campaign, psychologically if in no other way just yet. For a long time, the former Vermont governor was the New New Thing, on the Net and in the world of politics. He doesn’t feel so new right now, and Dean Campaign Manager Joe Trippi told me he was impressed by the digital savvy of the Draft Clark crowd. Before, there was no obvious, consensus answer to Dean, organizationally and emotionally, no one party insiders (especially Clintonistas) could agree on. There may be one now, and Dean has to hope that Clark implodes.
[BIO's on the other candidate's are continued on MSNBC]
http://www.msnbc.com/news/970515.asp?0cv=CB10
WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 — I know that what I am about to say may strike you as ridiculous. Political junkies will be justified in wondering whether I am engaging in hype, since I am a contract player with NBC and its cable affiliates. But I’ll say it anyway: The CNBC-Wall Street Journal debate this week in New York City could be a make-or-break event for Wesley Clark and, therefore, a pivotal moment in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
CLARK IS ON the launching pad, instantly ahead of the pack and running even or ahead of President Bush in new test match-ups. This week he either takes off or begins falling back to earth like the other mortals.
This already has been a vintage political season — meaning wild and unpredictable — and it’s only just begun. A few months ago, Bush looked nearly invincible in his flight suit. Now he looks like a guy whose ankles are weighed down by concrete blocks (jobs and Iraq). The gyrations of politics are everywhere. California is in terminal meltdown; political civil war rages in Texas; and perhaps the most important participants in the 2004 election — the leaders of al-Qaida — are waiting in the wings to do who knows what.
The Democratic Debate
Thursday's debate will be carried live on CNBC from 4-5:30 p.m. ET and rebroadcast in its entirety on MSNBC at 9 p.m. ET.
And now we have a Democratic presidential contest that seems to defy all attempts (by journalists and spinners) to give it shape: 10, count them, 10, candidates, all railing against Bush, but struggling to propound a vision of what should come after him; a press corps more suffocating, numerous and wired than ever, yet seemingly blind to the forest in these trees; an electorate bored and jaded, yet somehow (I think) yearning to be inspired.
This is a good time to take a look at the “horse race” as it is about to begin in earnest. Everything to this point has been gamesmanship on the farm and in the paddock. I know this is the biggest cliché in political journalism — comparing a presidential campaign to the Kentucky Derby. But, with such a large field, it seems to be the right analogy. Plus, I began my career in Louisville, and covered the Derby like everyone else in the newsroom.
Here’s how I think things line up, at least among the leading horses:
WESLEY CLARK
He’s a kitchen match that could set the woods ablaze. Clark has the most valuable possession in presidential campaigning: a BIG Reason to Run. It is: a coherent and detailed alternative to President Bush’s preemptive war theory for the eradication of terrorism (the most profound issue of our age). Others have Clark’s idea — military might plus shrewd global team building equals security — but he’s the only one who’s done it on the battlefield, and who has the street credentials and stripes to take on the commander in chief.
But winning presidential elections isn’t about resumes or personal track records. It isn’t about brains born with or fortunes amassed or medals for bravery won. It’s about coming across as level-headed, decent and sane. It’s about not seeming like you didn’t quite know what you were getting into when you decided to run. It’s about seeming well-informed and comfortable in areas outside of your expertise, and at ease on political center stage. Military and business heroes rarely make the transition well: Ross Perot, John Glenn and Al Haig are a few names that come to mind right away.
MSNBC.com's Politics section
Clark could defy that recent history. He’s already shown enormous potential. Many of my colleagues are snickering at our Newsweek poll, but it shows something important: With Al Gore and Hillary Rodham Clinton on the sidelines (where, I think, they are destined to stay) this race is wide open. More than that, Clark can move quickly into a real lead in the national polls if he does well at events such as the one this week in New York.
Democrats desperately want a winner and they think they may have one in Clark — if he’s for real. That means, among other things, that he has to cure himself of a handicap they call in baseball “rabbit ears.” A batter with “rabbit ears” is one who hears every jibe and taunt emanating from the opposing team’s dugout. You can’t get a hit if your mind is elsewhere than on the ball. Clark thinks he somehow can ensure, by the force of his own personality, that every story about him in every medium will fully reflect his views, nuance and all. He thinks he can get every opponent to acknowledge the subtleties of his statements. He has to learn to forget it, focusing on what you can control — what you say, not what they say.
HOWARD DEAN
Advertisement
For the first time in months, I’ve detected worry and even tinny bravado in the spinning I hear from Burlington, Vt. Dean has had an amazing few months. But as the race begins in earnest, his continued missteps (and his testy defense of them), and the withering crossfire he’s absorbed from rivals (notably John Kerry and Dick Gephardt) have left his handlers worried. Now that his expectations have been raised to the sky, especially in New Hampshire, he faces the task of defeating Kerry handily there. Anything less, ironically, will be considered something of a defeat.
And the advent of Clark has really cost the Dean campaign, psychologically if in no other way just yet. For a long time, the former Vermont governor was the New New Thing, on the Net and in the world of politics. He doesn’t feel so new right now, and Dean Campaign Manager Joe Trippi told me he was impressed by the digital savvy of the Draft Clark crowd. Before, there was no obvious, consensus answer to Dean, organizationally and emotionally, no one party insiders (especially Clintonistas) could agree on. There may be one now, and Dean has to hope that Clark implodes.
[BIO's on the other candidate's are continued on MSNBC]
