Werder Bremen to qualify might be free money....

Icemantbi · Mar 18, 2009

I just saw this article. Looks like the St. Etienne coach isn't interested in the UEFA Cup. Werder Bremen to qualify is a steep -388 right now, but it could be free money. Can anyone confirm this?

St Etienne coach Alain Perrin claims he will sacrifice his side's chances of winning the UEFA Cup in a bid to preserve their Ligue 1 status.

Les Verts sunk back into the relegation zone this weekend as a result of their 1-0 loss at Grenoble and Sochaux's victory at home to Nancy.
Playing against Werder Bremen on Thursday in the first leg of the UEFA Cup last 16 did not help their cause, and fatigue may have been a factor as the goal they conceded at Grenoble came in the last minute.

The second leg against Bremen, at the Stade Geoffrey-Guichard, takes place on Wednesday and ASSE are only 1-0 behind in the tie.

But Perrin is happy to see the back of Europe, and is quoted in L'Equipe as saying: "If we had five or six more players, we could allow ourselves to play in the UEFA Cup.

"But I notice that after each European game, we lose matches or points in Ligue 1.

"This last-16 tie is becoming very problematic with these injuries that are piling up and new suspensions in the Championship.

"The UEFA Cup is a chore - we are not going to play to qualify against Bremen.

"You have to be brave to make such a decision. Maybe the players are choosing their matches. But if they make their choices, we will do it too.
"Imagine if we were to qualify; it would be dangerous for us. I have trouble seeing us continue to lose points in Ligue 1 in April because of the UEFA Cup."

Asked if this attitude was fair on spectators who have already bought tickets for the second leg against Bremen, Perrin replied: "They don't especially want to see their team in Ligue 2 next season."

Blaise Matuidi, Geoffrey Dernis and Emmanuel Riviere are the latest St Etienne players to succumb to injuries, adding to a list that already includes Loic Perrin and Christophe Landrin.

Les Verts have won just twice in the league since mid-December and are now third from bottom, level on points with Sochaux above them.

chriscol · Mar 18, 2009

lot s of talking about it in germany the last 2 days. it s not an uncommon story. f.e i heart also before last uefa match of Tottenham that coach is resting players as they focus on league (they lost BTW).
although their are big discussion if ´french coach says the truth or just playing games with Bremen, i think it might be the case that at least the french are not 100 % motivated (i dont believe in blowing the game on purpose).
asuuming the above theory i though about how to attack the game:
current lines are: Bremen to advance 1.25, Bremen pk @1.71, Bremen -0.25 @2.07, Bremen to win @2.40

knowing Bremen , they are not able to play on a result..if there is any truth in the french s saying and they are not 100 % motivated Bremen will win this. if it s only a fake i still like Bremen , but you have to consider that a draw or a 1-2 loss would also see them advance.

But if you base your play on the above information and forget normally capping then you have to go with the Bremen win and the 2.40.
if you consider only taking taking the pk or laying big chalk on the advance you go for the safety net, which assumes already the theory is only a fake. and if it is a fake then the French might advance as well.

conclusion:
if you believe in what the French coach says, going with Bremen win @ 2.40 is the consequent way and with the most value
if you dont believe in in, then cap the game without letting the article influence you (but this would make a Bremen qualify bet @ 1.25 not at all a value play IMO)