Weekly Writeup and Picks 3-3 YTD

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Here are a few to start with and probably some more to add later in the week. First game is Missouri at Texas. Last week I went 1-2 and the only win was Texas. However, this week I like Missouri +7. The bubble-burst system does not apply here for two reasons. One, Missouri is a decent size dog. Second, Missouri knows if they beat Texas then they are right back in the middle of it. I'm not saying they will win, but I like Missouri to cover the spread and possibly win. The Tigers have an explosive offense led by Chase Daniel and the very explosive Jeremy Macklin. Texas comes in OFF a SU Dog Win an emotional win at that. Now they find themselves ranked #1. Believe it or not, I'm trying to take down #1 (at least ATS wise) for the second straight week. Furthermore, Missouri qualifies in a massive 25-2 ATS bounce-back system that is 7-0 ATS since I have played it. It may be due for a loss, but I"m gonna keep riding it. If the line somehow goes down to +6, then they qualify in a 34-3 ATS system which is 10-2 ATS since I played it. I expect Missouri to come out highly motivated because they can put themsevles right back in the title hunt with a win. They may not win, but should keep it close.
Take Missouri +7

The next game is Kansas at Oklahoma. Here Oklahoma does qualify in a bubble-burst system that is 4-24 ATS. Thus, Kansas would be the play. Furthermore, Kansas has an explosive pass offense which is probably better than Texas, who just beat Oklahoma. The Kansas defense is solid also. I expect the Sooners to win, but not cover. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is one of the best in the country at throwing the ball, especially in what I call the moo-formation. I've seen others teams run the moo where all the players stop (after getting lined up) and look up at the same time like cattle so they can react to the defense shown and change the play. Hey, whatever works. Former QB Kerry Meier is now one of Reesing's favorite targets and is a solid receiver. This does not even include the dangerous Dezmon Briscoe. In my opinion, Kansas can play with anyone since they are above average on both sides of the ball. Special teams have been somewhat of a problem for Kansas lately, but the Sooners have a weakness there too. Thus, they offset hopefully. The general public will expect a Sooner blowout after the loss, but I say take Kansas and the generous 18.5 points. There will be more plays added probably later in the week.
 

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I got Missouri at +7 which is good since it went down to 6.5 at some places. I got 18.5 for Kansas, but now its up to 19.5 at some places. This proves the public is all over Oklahoma like I predicted above.
 

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Interesting note on the weekly writeups. I'm 3-3 ATS and 3-0 ATS in games involving the Big 12 and 0-3 ATS in other games. It must be a statistical aberration.
 

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The next game involves the Big 10. Wisconsin will travel to Iowa. The Badgers got demolished by Penn State last week. Meanwhile, Iowa went to Indiana as Road Chalk and won big and scored many points. It is usually impressive to see teams score alot of points on the road and win by big margins. There have been several systems that are derived from that parameter. Obviously, I added a few others, but not enough to minimize its value. It comes in at 27-6 ATS since 1980. Furthermore, I don't just play a system and not handicap. I really like the fact that Wisconsin's strength is their run game and Iowa should be able to take away what the Badgers do best. Furthermore, Iowa needs to take care of the ball. The Iowa defense is very stingy and is allowing less than 11 points per game. They also posted a shutout earlier in the year which is impressive no matter who you are playing. Furthermore, they play with REVENGE after a 17-13 Loss last year. Wisconsin doesn't even know who their QB will be as they have Evridge and Sherer listed as co-starters. Usually if you have two quarterbacks then you have none.
TAKE IOWA -3.5
 

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I always post plays AFTER I bet them. As you can see, I posted Missouri +7 on Monday for the record. Its not my fault the doctor shrunk the line.
 

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I'm adding 2 more games to get it to 5 games total for the week. The next team I like is Ole Miss +11.5 against Alabama. Houston Nutt is dangerous as a dog going back to his day at Arkansas while the Tide have been weak as Home Chalk lately. Bama has played only one game since the Georgia win and that is creating line value. Ole Miss has beaten Florida and took Wake Forest down to the wire. Houston Nutt recently said that it is a brand new season coming off the bye week since his team is currently 3-3. The last 3 years Bama has won by only a field goal.
TAKE HOUSTON NUTT and OLE MISS +11.5
 

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The final game is Arkansas at Kentucky. To me, Kentucky is similar to Auburn. They have a good defense and below average offense. Petrino and company were able to put up over 400 yards on offense last week against a good Auburn defense. Furthermore, Arkansas is improving on offense and starting to learn Petrino's system. The natural reaction to this game would be Alabama blew out Arkansas and Kentucky played Alabama close. Sometimes that doesn't add up because there are different matchups and emotions via each game. Arkansas has played Florida, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn (all ranked) Thus, their stats can be skewed somewhat. I think this makes them battle-tested. Playing against better teams will make you better. Kentucky is a notch below those other schools except Auburn. Take the improving Razorbacks at +7.5
 

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Here are the plays to recap

1.Missouri +7
2.Kansas +18.5
3.Iowa -3.5
4.Ole Miss +11.5
5.Arkansas +7.5
 

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Looks like 4-1 ATS for the day and now 7-4 ATS YTD. I'm assuming Missouri will not cover. I'm not sweating it. I would love to take an a**kicking on one game for every four I won.
 

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