Weekly Writeup and Picks (2-1 YTD)

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Northern Illinois is a pretty good 2-3 football team. All three of their losses are by 4 points or less. Two of them are to 5-1 Western Michigan and 5-1 Minnesota. The other was last week to Tennessee 13-9. I know Tennessee is down, but for a MAC team to go head-to-head with the Vols is impressive. The week before that all they did was shutout MAC opponent Eastern Michigan 37-0. They are definitely an above average defensive group. That is not good news for Miami-Ohio who struggles offensively. Their only win is against I-AA Busch-League Charleston Southern. Last week they got crushed by Temple 28-10 and this was after coming off a 2-week layoff. Miami-Ohio backers will say they only lost to Michigan 16-6 early in the year. Uhh, Michigan is average this year. They just got waxed in the big house by Juice Williams. Since the so-called great Michigan game, they beat a I-AA team, lost to rival Cincy 45-20, and then lost to Temple. For technical support, there is a regular 67% momentum system play with a 10-1 ATS tightener and a 5-0 ATS tightener that Northern Illinois fits in both. The interesting part on the 5-0 ATS tightener is the average winning margin is over 36 POINTS PER GAME with an average line of about -15 which is a difference of 21. Take NORTHERN ILLINOIS -11 and I might add some picks later in the week. Good luck to all.
 

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I will be adding two more games. Here is one of them. It involves the Red River Rivalry. Both Oklahoma and Texas are undefeated on the year and the Sooners are favored by 7. The team that has won the turnover battle has won the game 9 out of 10 times. Texas turned it over 5 times and OU turned it over zero in last year's game. However, OU managed only to win the game 28-21 despite a huge turnover advantage. Furthermore, most of the same guys playing this year were playing last year. Texas also qualifies in a underdog system that takes advantage of dogs with great defenses. This situation is near perfect and is 1-0 ATS this year with Alabama against Georgia. Maybe OU has a little better offense, but I think Texas has a better defense. I've seen Stoop's boys get lit up on defense, especially in recent bowl games. Furthermore, I think Colt McCoy is as good as Sam Bradford if not better. TAKE TEXAS +7
 

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Last week the Oregon Ducks got pounded by a Southern Cal team who probably thought Oregon sounded close to Oregon State. This week the Ducks take on the UCLA Bruins who abused hapless Washington State (a team that was abused by Baylor) What is interesting here is the massive line movement on both sides. UCLA goes from a huge favorite to a huge dog after winning big while Oregon goes from a huge dog to a huge favorite after getting blown out. This helps set up the Ducks in a 19-3 ATS system which is 2-0 ATS this year including TCU's 41-7 smashing of San Diego State last week. TAKE OREGON -17.5
 

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Thats it for the week. I'm going with these three. Good luck to all.
 

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