Stay with your boys, Yiasou.
They are in a streak where they are misunderstood by the bettors and the linesmakers. I'm not going to go through all the game logs for the past twenty years to verify it. But I have been studying point spread differentials for a long time. This is an historic run of pointspread dominance.
Here are the Ravens point spread differentials for the past five games:
+17
+20
+26
+29'
+36
They are literally off the charts. They won't come down with a thud until the upward trajectory of those point spread differentials turns back towards +/- 0.
The Fortyniners may (likely) bring their differential down but they will still cover the spread. No way Baltimore lets down against the #2 rated team.
Good luck, man. And have fun. It's about the ride and the Ravens are taking you fans on a soaring ride game to game this year. Enjoy it.
And make money.
They are in a streak where they are misunderstood by the bettors and the linesmakers. I'm not going to go through all the game logs for the past twenty years to verify it. But I have been studying point spread differentials for a long time. This is an historic run of pointspread dominance.
Here are the Ravens point spread differentials for the past five games:
+17
+20
+26
+29'
+36
They are literally off the charts. They won't come down with a thud until the upward trajectory of those point spread differentials turns back towards +/- 0.
The Fortyniners may (likely) bring their differential down but they will still cover the spread. No way Baltimore lets down against the #2 rated team.
Good luck, man. And have fun. It's about the ride and the Ravens are taking you fans on a soaring ride game to game this year. Enjoy it.
And make money.
yeah I got -3 -115
I'm not sure where NE's offense will land for the year but I do think it is better than what they've been against solid defenses this year. Getting Wynn back, another week working with the new WR's and playing in pristine conditions against a burnable secondary is a good get right spot for them. Texans have only played two games w/o Watt and it was vs Brissett/Minshew, their secondary has had problems all year. Flip side is NE has played Philly/Dallas last few weeks, Philly is #1 in yards per play since wk 8 (around when their secondary started getting healthy) and Dallas is a very good D in general IMO (even though they have been up and down), it's just a significantly better matchup on paper.
Brady looks fine for the most part, he's making good throws. Just surrounding pieces haven't been up to snuff so far. He had 6 official drops on Sunday, he was putting some dimes in there.
Just seems like a good convergence of variables but we'll see.
If their offense ever starts remotely clicking, it isn't going to take much to cover spreads w/ how their D is playing.
I'm not sure where NE's offense will land for the year but I do think it is better than what they've been against solid defenses this year. Getting Wynn back, another week working with the new WR's and playing in pristine conditions against a burnable secondary is a good get right spot for them. Texans have only played two games w/o Watt and it was vs Brissett/Minshew, their secondary has had problems all year. Flip side is NE has played Philly/Dallas last few weeks, Philly is #1 in yards per play since wk 8 (around when their secondary started getting healthy) and Dallas is a very good D in general IMO (even though they have been up and down), it's just a significantly better matchup on paper.
Brady looks fine for the most part, he's making good throws. Just surrounding pieces haven't been up to snuff so far. He had 6 official drops on Sunday, he was putting some dimes in there.
Just seems like a good convergence of variables but we'll see.
If their offense ever starts remotely clicking, it isn't going to take much to cover spreads w/ how their D is playing.
In full agreement here. The offense is improving. The return of LT, Wynn and the morphing of inside linebacker, Elandon Roberts to fullback, are very important to reestablishing the running game which will in turn make Brady more effective off of play action. Edelman has been dropping a lot of balls. That is out of character and I have to assume will get better. Myers and Harry will establish Brady's trust as we go into the back half of the season. Sanu and Dorsett will likely return for this game. Second tight end, LaCosse returned last week. Burkhead, Michel, and White are healthy. It's time for this offense to start clicking.
The defense? Spectacular.
Baltimore is the only team who busted through this defense with 4 offensive TDs and 1 defensive TD. No one has scored more than 14 points in their other 10 games. No team has scored more than 1 offensive TD in their 10 other games. Heck, there have only been 6 field goals kicked against them in all 11 games. The opposition scoring peculiarity is that the Pats have allowed 4 Defensive TDs against them coming from just 10 turnovers all year. That is an incredibly freaky Defensive TD to turnover ratio. It won't continue.
We know that the Pats hone their team for the stretch run. We're getting there.
Michelangelo, I haven't done the research that you have, but I can see exactly what you're talking about. I do think this might be a team for the record books. Listening to the local news and press conferences, you can tell this is a team on a mission. They are focused on one goal (super bowl) and are not letting the media hype distract them. I will ride them all the way. It's a great combo of young guys, older guys and most importantly a coaching staff that can get their best out of them. We haven't had a trio of coaches like this in a long time and now a qb with some spunk and personality who has made it fun for everyone. I can't wait for their games every week.
Good luck on Thursday's games, unfortunately I think I like the favorites in all three. Have a great Thanksgiving with your family, be thankful for your blessings.
Good luck on Thursday's games, unfortunately I think I like the favorites in all three. Have a great Thanksgiving with your family, be thankful for your blessings.
Crushed like a cooked cranberry on Thanksgiving. See if I can shake off the triptofan today.
///
Early afternoon.
NYJ / Cincy Under 42' -101
NYJ -3 -101 (@ Cincy)
The Jets have the best rushing Defense in the NFL allowing a paltry 3.0 yds per attempt. So Cincy won't run. Cincy's QB is now Ryan Finley. He stinks. In three starts he has 2 TDs; 2 ints; 3 lost fumbles. How are the Bengals gonna score?
Miami +10' -108 (vs Philly)
After their vacation in Miami, Philly is staring at four Division games to close out the season. The Fins aren't the fish in a pond they were the first month of the season.
Green Bay -7 +112 (@ NYG)
The Giants have a severe case of fumbleitis. 15 lost fumbles in 11 games. You can't set Aaron Rogers up with extra possessions without paying.
Balty -6 -105 (vs Frisco)
Game of the year thusfar. I've been telling you about Baltimore's incredible point spread differentials for a few weeks now. Here they are from five weeks ago 'till now in progression.
+17
+20
+26
+29'
+35
Differentials like that are very rare. What they mean is that there is a huge disconnect between where the linesmaker sets the line and how the Ravens actually perform. They will likely turn down today because the linesmaker and the betting public will catch up. But they won't crash. There is very much likely to be a positive differential again today.
Later games later.
///
Early afternoon.
NYJ / Cincy Under 42' -101
NYJ -3 -101 (@ Cincy)
The Jets have the best rushing Defense in the NFL allowing a paltry 3.0 yds per attempt. So Cincy won't run. Cincy's QB is now Ryan Finley. He stinks. In three starts he has 2 TDs; 2 ints; 3 lost fumbles. How are the Bengals gonna score?
Miami +10' -108 (vs Philly)
After their vacation in Miami, Philly is staring at four Division games to close out the season. The Fins aren't the fish in a pond they were the first month of the season.
Green Bay -7 +112 (@ NYG)
The Giants have a severe case of fumbleitis. 15 lost fumbles in 11 games. You can't set Aaron Rogers up with extra possessions without paying.
Balty -6 -105 (vs Frisco)
Game of the year thusfar. I've been telling you about Baltimore's incredible point spread differentials for a few weeks now. Here they are from five weeks ago 'till now in progression.
+17
+20
+26
+29'
+35
Differentials like that are very rare. What they mean is that there is a huge disconnect between where the linesmaker sets the line and how the Ravens actually perform. They will likely turn down today because the linesmaker and the betting public will catch up. But they won't crash. There is very much likely to be a positive differential again today.
Later games later.
