Week Four NFL selections

[BigLou+]

YTD record: 6-7 ATS, -1.7 units.

Ravens +3 (Even, 1 unit) vs. Chiefs
Falcons +6 (1 unit) @ Panthers

Big Lou

 

[BigLou+]

Falcons +6 (1 unit) @ Panthers - I stated in Week One that I would be looking to fade Carolina when they were favored until they started generating some offense. So far this team has scored a total of 13 points in the first three quarters of their first two games combined. I believe they are over valued because of their win over Tampa Bay. The fact of the matter is Carolina is a blocked punt for a safety in the Jaguars game and a blocked extra point in the Tampa game away from being 0-2. There is also a bye week system based on my power ratings which says to fade Carolina in this situation, as teams favored by three points or more following a bye week whose current power rating falls below a specific number have gone 6-20 ATS since 1998. This is also the first time QB Jake Delhomme has ever been favored in his short career. I'll take Atlanta plus the points here.

Big Lou

[This message was edited by Big Lou on September 25, 2003 at 04:23 PM.]

 

[ChadC]

Like the Falcons, good luck Lou.

 

[RPM]

you make some decent points lou. good luck!~

 

[BigLou+]

Ravens +3 (Even, 1 unit) vs. Chiefs - The system going against Kansas City here is to fade any team that has scored 40 points or more in back to back games if they are on the road this week, 3-8 SU & 2-8-1 ATS over the past 15 seasons.

Big Lou

 

[sphincter]

some strange stats and trends....

1)in franchise history,the su winner of carolina panther games is 51-2-1 ats.....

2)play against any game 4 road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first 3 games.......since "86".....15-2.....play against indy and k.c....

g.l.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Good luck Lou, I like both plays.

 

[RexFoster]

Hope you do not mind me posting my plays in your thread. I did not see TRK plays place

Free half point/LV plays

Carolina -5.5 6 dollars
Baltimore +3 7 dollars
Houston +3 3 dollars
Minnesota -1 (olypmic) 4 dollars
Saints +3 (-135) 6 dollars
Bears +4.5 4 dollars



GOOD LUCK!
Rex

 

[Thunder]

Good Luck Lou. I will be rooting for you and the Falcons. Think they win this one SU...

 

[olebillsbeater]

hey louie,

better sitck with 1 unit on these
games, don't like these games at all...
Week 4 kinda sucks...

Bears ML looks like a top play !

OBB

 

[mhk]

Big Lou, I know you are a big trend/system guy, (especially winning ones that go back ten years or more). Wondering if you are aware of this one:

Play on a nfl team starting out 0-2 ats &su,
winning game three ats &su,
A game 4 road dog of more than 2 points..
This system is 27-1 as far back as can be reasearched..

The play is : Arizona + the points..

 

[BigLou+]

So far, not so good. Time for a break but I will be back.

Big Lou

 

[IDENTITY]

u going to take next week off?

 

[BigLou+]

I'm taking a few months off.

Big Lou

 

[IDENTITY]

big lou, why? the season just started...please do not leave so fast. youll turn it around next week!

 

[Mosi]

Seriously, I hope everything is alright. Because somebody who focuses solely on the NFL does not just take a couple of months off because of a 6 - 9 start.

Look forward to a quick return.

 

[jaypaw]

I look forward to your thoughts so keep em coming even if you aint playing

I forgot what I initially came here to say because while the window was loading I found a piece of rice pilaf stuck to my nipple hair and it shifted my train of thought...

GL