Week 9: Mt. West Have and Have Nots

[ofred]

Memphis lost my biggest play of the season at 4*, but still won a few units overall. As I stated in an earlier post, luck evened out when Iowa St. and Indiana covered late. South Carolina a terrible bet, BC and UNC great plays. YTD: 30-23, +14.50 units ..... Playing with house money is nice.

Noted that for first time games last week, in the Big Ten and Mt. West, it was good idea to follow the money. The line movement indicated who was to cover, and between the 2 conferences, I'm estimating that line movement from the open to the later spread, that sharp money won about 80-90% of their bets. Seeing that the Mt. West is only 2 games in, I'm going with the teams that look like they really have their shit together vs. teams that are flailing around and will not be able to be competitive for a full game.

3* Nevada -13.5 Part of this play is that home field advantage is almost nil since the home stadiums can't have more than about 25%(or less) of their fans in attendance. Nevada looks like they can dominate here. QB Carson Strong was damn near perfect last week vs. Wyoming, but because they got a big lead, and played conservative, nearly lost in OT to Wyoming. Nevada is loaded with playmakers, and UNLV has almost a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and much of the roster. I also expect Nevada to have about as many fans as UNLV has in this game. UNLV is rebuilding while Nevada has an outside chance of winning the Mt.West.

3* Boise St. -13.5. Air Force crushed Navy one game, and we are all wondering just how good they might be. But this AF team has a depleted roster, a new QB, and they caught Navy on a really bad day. This play says that Air Force's win with Navy was more of an aberration than a statement game of who they are. Boise has all the elements on offense to crush the AF defense, and enough on defense to cover this spread. Once again, the home field advantage is minimal. Boise looked in mid-season form in their first game with USU, and Air Force looked liked crap with a San Jose team that lost their star QB and recruits poorly. If Boise can limit the AF option, though not completely stop it, they should be able to outscore AF and win something like 42-20.

2* Hawaii -1 I bet this one with caution because Hawaii is on the road for a second week, playing in the cold in Wyoming. Still... Wyoming's defense is a shell of itself from last season. Wyoming lost their defense to graduation, opt outs, and basically a tough sell to recruits who don't want to play in Laramie. Like that Todd Graham is actually making the Hawaii defense part of their culture as opposed to an afterthought. Also like that their new QB might actually be a better dual threat than Cole McDonald. Wyoming Backup QB, Levi Willliams, is a pretty good backup, but this Wyoming team might really struggle defending Hawaii's fast paced offense. The weather should be cool, but not too wintery, and with Wyoming being so much worse defensively, Hawaii will at least be competitive throughout.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........well done YTD buddy........appreciate the early thought's and write ups.........

will be following your lead my friend.........indy

 

[hilltop]

o Fred ....... your house money plays look nice, especially the Nevada play.

UNLV still has not stated publicly who the starting QB will be for this game against arch rival Nevada. None of the 3QB’s have performed well in practice or in the San Diego State game. The receiver corp is not that experienced or good. The O line is horrible. UNLV will struggle to score more than 15 points. The only questionable factor is that it’s a game against their biggest arch rival and emotion’s will come into play for the “Fremont Cannon”. Can UNLV play above their fighting weight on emotions for 4quarters.

my guess is that after the 1st quarter and their emotions and heart rate subsides Nevada will have their way with them.
I am already on Nevada -13.5

Thanks for the write ups. GLTU on all your plays......especially the Nevada play.

 

[ofred]

2* Maryland/ Minnesota- over 61.5 If you saw the Minnesota-Michigan game, it looked like the Wolverines were in control. Yet Michigan's defense, I thought, was the best unit out there. I know their running game looked very good, but that was more of a result of a weak, small/ slight and not very physical Gopher defense. Minnesota's defense wasn't all that good last season, but it looked better than it was with a weak schedule. They never had much depth. Now, with most of it graduated, injured, etc, they got pushed around all night by Michigan. It also kept the Gopher offense off the field. And yet you could see that Minnesota might really have all the pieces(again) for a high scoring offense. That's where Maryland's defense comes in. It's full of young, inexperienced players throughout. The DL is all new. The secondary can't cover or tackle. I think Minny puts up 45-55 here. I also think that Maryland QB Taulia T. has a much better game at home, with 1st game jitters over, and no Northwestern defense. Maryland has a pretty good set of receivers, a lack of RBs, and I can see them opening up the offense more. Less running means less clock running. Knowing that the Gophers can score, I can't imagine the Maryland OC playing it conservative here.

 

[ofred]

o Fred ....... your house money plays look nice, especially the Nevada play.

UNLV still has not stated publicly who the starting QB will be for this game against arch rival Nevada. None of the 3QB’s have performed well in practice or in the San Diego State game. The receiver corp is not that experienced or good. The O line is horrible. UNLV will struggle to score more than 15 points. The only questionable factor is that it’s a game against their biggest arch rival and emotion’s will come into play for the “Fremont Cannon”. Can UNLV play above their fighting weight on emotions for 4quarters.

my guess is that after the 1st quarter and their emotions and heart rate subsides Nevada will have their way with them.
I am already on Nevada -13.5

Thanks for the write ups. GLTU on all your plays......especially the Nevada play.

Good luck to you too, hilltop. Glad to get more insight into this game. The large variance in QB play in this game is big factor for me. I don't know much about the UNLV defense, but in recent years, they always seemed soft, lacking playmakers and easy to run on.

 

[sherwood]

Win or lose, I like your posts Fred, they're smart.

 

[ofred]

Win or lose, I like your posts Fred, they're smart.

Appreciated. Have read your write-ups over the years. They helped me think differently when capping a game.

 

[ofred]

Air Force coach stated that no one will return from covid protocols if they were also out last week vs. San Jose. Add to that, their staring TB, Remsberg(1,000 yards last season injured and out...also starting center, maybe backup TB?) San Jose stacked the front with 8 players on their D front. Air Force didn't score until the 4th qtr. Not sure if Boise will do the same, but they are well-coached.

 

[ofred]

2* UCF (-126) 1H Even UCF is a famously fast starting team, while Houston has been a little slow to score first halves. Plus Houston is coming from a game with a drastically different offense (Navy) than what they'll face in super fast-paced UCF. Getting even money on this seems like a good bet. Home field attendance at 25% negates much of the HF advantage. While Houston has faced the high powered BYU offense, and struggled with it, UCF presents better, faster playmakers on offense. Dillon Gabriel and UCF are first half wonders, second half faders.

1* Northwestern ML +119
2* Northwestern +3 (-128) Beating up on a bad Maryland team may not be much to crow about, but it could have much worse if NW hadn't reined in the offense 2nd half. Not only does Peyton Ramsay give them a huge upgrade at QB, with his nice touch on passes and dual threat, but the new Northwestern OC Mike Bajakian finally gets to open up the offense, and pace, after years of being under the restraints of BC coach Steve Addazio. Now Northwestern doesn't have the elite D of Ohio St. or Michigan or even Wisconsin, but they are well-disciplined, smart and physical. Iowa has a new QB, Spencer Petras, who is more of a pocket passer and had mixed results vs. Purdue. The jury is out, but Purdue has been a notoriously bad pass defense for years, and Petras was so-so last week. Iowa, though, has lost a lot of very good talent in the last 2 years to the NFL and graduation. HC Ferentz is a decent coach, but seems to be poor with in-game adjusting. The Iowa defense is supposed to be pretty good, but Purdue did pretty well without star receiver Rondale Moore or their HC Jeff Brohm(the play caller). No fans in Iowa, very little HF advantage.

 

[ofred]

1* BC +26 No Trevor Lawrence, possible more Clemson players out by Saturday, Notre Dame on deck...what the hell? BC line only dropped about 5. May take more. BC has been a pleasant surprise other than turnover plagued 4th quarter vs, VT.

 

[ofred]

3* Texas A&M -12.5 Going against the new darling of the SEC, Arkansas. Have to admit that they have gone from putrid to respectability. Better coaching for sure. But for the most part, the bulk of the players are the same guys that got crushed last season. Georgia beat them bad after a slow start and a bad first game QB choice. MSU outgained them by 125 yards but lost the game through turnovers. And MSU has a garbage OL. They played well vs. Ole Miss and Auburn, but their run defense got gouged badly. A&M will not take them lightly after last year's almost-loss when they were favored by 20+ points. Part of this play is that A&M really has no glaring weaknesses, but some definite strengths. They are off a bye, have a great run game, a defense that is underrated, and if not for a few long passes from Mac Jones, would have been right in the Bama game. They only beat MSU by 14, but the score didn't indicate just how much they dominated the Bulldogs. Their win vs. Florida was no fluke as they outgained them by 140 yards. At home, and with Arkansas getting more good press than they are, I'll take the Aggies to roll.

 

[indiana]

Fred.........solid looking card buddy......appreciate your write ups........

BOL with your action, will continue to monitor your thought's......indy

 

[ofred]

Fred.........solid looking card buddy......appreciate your write ups........

BOL with your action, will continue to monitor your thought's......indy

Thanks Indy. Feeling good about this week...


2* Georgia State +3.5 Coastal Carolina is another darling of the college football world. They have been impressive so far, but I'm not buying it completely. They have played a very weak schedule, and although they defeated a good ULL team, they gave up 8 ypc in that game. Part of this play is that teams that are undefeated, but not used to their newfound success, have a tendency to be a bit over-confident, celebratory, and think they automatically are destined to win. How many times have we seen teams even better than CCU go 4-0, 5-0, or 6-0, then go on the road, and get beaten? Lots. Grayson McCall, the CCU QB is questionable, but hasn't practiced. Got a feeling he sits out one more week. His replacement, Fred Payton, is steady, but not the playmaker or passer that McCall is. He turned it over twice and was sacked a few times last week. Georgia State has an electric redshirt freshman QB, Cornelious Brown, and plenty of playmakers. Brown is fearless and has the escapability and running electricity that is something the CCU defense hasn't seen. The Georgia St. defense has decent run numbers and pass rushing is pretty good. It's the secondary that gets whooped. Hopefully, with Payton, they can hang in there, have some coaching adjustments, and at least limit the CCU pass game. Georgia State at home, and will be super motivated to knock off undefeated Coastal Carolina.

 

[ofred]

3* Ole Miss -17 Ole Miss bettors have been burned since their Alabama game. And this large spread seems to point to the books wanting Vandy money. After all, we all know Ole Miss can't play defense. But that's the beauty of this play...Ole Miss can play their usual defense and still Vandy will struggle to score. The Vandy team has been decimated by at least 10 opt outs, injuries and the virus. The offense is really thrown together by duct tape, wire and chewing gum. They can't run the ball, and the QB is a freshman who has 48 completions for 411 yards?? They haven't practiced much due to the players out with covid. The surprising thing is that their supposed "okay" defense isn't very good either. Then you have Derek Mason, a good guy that isn't a very good coach, a guy whose contract makes it difficult for Vanderbilt to buy him out. Ole Miss is due for a breakout, and I doubt that Kiffin, with a 1-4 record, will take any mercy on Vanderbilt. They will score well into the 4th quarter, and with Plumlee needing playing time, Ole Miss will allow him to run the offense as usual- fast-paced and opened up.


2* Troy/ Arkansas St. - over 69.5 Going by my post a couple of weeks ago about how some teams seem to have the talented personnel, playmakers and speed and elusiveness on offense, these same teams have a lack of talented personnel on defense. Here are 2 teams that really fit this description. Especially Arkansas State. They have 2 QBs, both who are pretty good, lots of guys that can make big plays to get the ball to, pass a whole bunch, and even give up turnovers that lead to scores by their opponents. The motto for the Red Wolves seems to be "high risk at all costs." Their offense even looked pretty good vs. a solid App. State defense, but they blew too many chances in the red zone. Troy may have their starting QB ready, but the backup passed for over 300 yards last week, and they have a nice receiving corp. Defense also seems to be optional at times, although they are slightly better than Ark. St. They did give up 425 yards and 29 points to FCS opponent EKU, a 1-4 team. They had one of the worst defenses in 2019 in the FBS(bottom 10), and though it isn't as bad, it can't be that much better. They are also turnover prone, and like Ark. State, this can lead to unforeseen scores. Win or lose, this is a play I can live with.

 

[ofred]

These first two are from a belief that they will finally become more consistent, and while far beneath Clemson in the ACC, are there with Miami and Notre Dame as contenders for the #2 team in the conference.

1* UNC -7 Really wanted to consider Virginia in this spot since I think so highly of Bronco Mendenhall and all he's done for that program (and for BYU too). But Virginia has a passing/ 3rd down and long problem. Brennan Armstrong has been dinged up, but he's playing, and runs well. He is even a decent passer. Virginia's receivers, though, are not good. Poor separation, bad hands, they don't win many battles over toss-up throws...Virginia's top RB only runs the ball about 10 times a game. Their defense is still good up front, but the secondary has been getting beaten. With UNC, it's not Sam Howell that is so impressive, it's Carter and Williams. These two RBs are both shifty and a danger to break off a big one on any play. Carter and Williams, remember that. UNC's run defense played well last week, but has been a problem. Not sure if they'll have to be more than "okay" this week to pull away here. If UNC hasn't learned their lesson of letdowns from their FSU and BC games, well..they deserve a 2nd rate bowl game- and scorn from their fans.

1* VT -3.5 Small write-up, but I think VT finally gets off the see-saw of their 2020 performances. Louisville has a lot of good athletes, but a very inconsistent QB, and makes too many mistakes to be a quality football team. VT pretty much back to full strength, well-coached, and I can't see the home field being much of any advantage. VT's run game prevails.



1* Michigan St. +22 My snooze, my lose play. Liked them at 24.5, waited, and now look at the line. Capping this game, I don't like giving up big spreads when the favorite's QB is still developing, or is not that good as a passer. Milton looked better than he really is last week, because the Gopher's defense was a wet noodle. He had great protection that I don't think he'll get the week vs. a more physical MSU defense. I also think MSU will prioritize ball protection in practice this week after losing 7 TOs to Rutgers last week. I am also going to put it out there that Rocky Lombardi is better than you might think. He's a tough kid, a leader, stays calm even when things are going poorly, and is an accurate passer for the most part. Will he have time to pass? Part of the reason MSU is getting 22 points is that their OC will have to find ways to get that time, or plays that take advantage of UM's over- aggressiveness, or it could get ugly. Michigan has kicking issues, and might be a bit overrated due to Minnesota's poor defense. Rivalry game, a tiny amount of fans(family members), and so the place won't be rocking for Michigan.

 

[tulah]

Love the write ups.
They always make sense. But most of the time we know that these games stray far away from what we think will likely happen.
sometimes the vegas line makes no sense.
this week UVA short dog fits that scenario. UNC-10 is a more accurate number.
same with C.Florida. Such a short fav.
Even reverse like WVA favored. I bet that at 3.5 upon line release.

best of luck this week

 

[ofred]

Love the write ups.
They always make sense. But most of the time we know that these games stray far away from what we think will likely happen.
sometimes the vegas line makes no sense.
this week UVA short dog fits that scenario. UNC-10 is a more accurate number.
same with C.Florida. Such a short fav.
Even reverse like WVA favored. I bet that at 3.5 upon line release.

best of luck this week

So true, the outcomes do often stray from what we predict will happen. In capping, you have to predict something outside the herd mentality of the media and the betting public. Still...it's called gambling for a reason. Best of luck tulah.

Crazy play: Teaser +350 MSU +27.5 UNC-1 Rutgers +19 Purdue -1.5 Navy +18.5
Liked Navy at 14.5, but waited too long. They still might cover the 11.5. Purdue could be much improved this season if they don't have a slew of injuries as in the past. Rutgers should compete for at least a half.

 

[ofred]

Maryland has found their future QB, and also has some playmakers. Unfortunately, their defense is just awful. Locksley will screw it up. Already some questionable decisions tonight.

 

[ofred]

Feeling real lucky on Boise game, being that their starting QB Bachmeier didn't play. Backup(Sears) played well. I remember that guy at USC and wondered where he went.

 

[Skeeter123]

Solid week o fred...that back door by Arkansas just now was brutal.

GL the rest of the year...always enjoy your write-ups and analysis.

:toast: