week 8 vegas line vs my ratings (systems, stats info & more inside) strong card !!!

[w365]

going for 4 straight winning weeks in 4 tries with my line studying approach. this week i should have a strong card with probably less plays than usuall and i also expect to have a strong nfl card. as for the early, mid week games, i will have no plays on them, and no leans either.


however, here are some interesting infos and stats for these games for those who will be betting on them. check back later this week for my plays and the most interesting systems.


fsu -11 @ ncst
no play, no lean

home dogs in weeks 2-11 are 78-39 ats if both teams have 10-19 days of rest. in conference games, they are 31-7 ats in that same situation if they are 7-27.5 pts dogs. however, fsu has been playing really well and they've had enough time to refocus after that rivalery win over miami. both teams have a lot of injuries and ncst has been very strong against fsu in recent years going 6-0-1 ats.according to my ratings this line is perfectly set and ytd these teams are 9-9 ATS (no value).


byu pk @ tcu
no play, no lean

very interesting line. this line puts byu (and tcu) in between one winning and one losing group of teams and it is a definition of a coin toss. i belive the game will be close and the books are not setting up any traps here. the teams are evenly matched, with the slight edge going to byu (and tcu's home field advantage keeps this line at pk). 6-0 teams are 13-5 ats on the road as underdogs of not more than 6.5 (just something to keep in mind if byu is underdog by game time). 6-1 teams are 12-4 ats if home underdogs of 1-5.5. 6-1 home teams with the line in the -2/+9.5 range are 0-4 su/ats against 6-0 teams. however, they are 10-0 ats against any unbeaten team, home and away if the line is +1/+7.

haw @ boise -24.5
no play, no lean

another sharp line. boise IS that much better and seeking revenge here.something to consider before you put your hard earned money on hawaii. this is their 7th straight game this season that they have to travel to either from or to the islands. they did have one bye week in september but this team has to be tired by now. boise outscoring opponents at home 107-17 ytd. Boise 9-1 su and 7-2 ats in home revenge.

 

[GTROCKMAN]

Excellent, Looking forward to your post. Thanks again for all the hard work !!!!!!!!!!!! :toast:

 

[w365]

Excellent, Looking forward to your post. Thanks again for all the hard work !!!!!!!!!!!! :toast:

you are welcome man...5-6 plays this week...but will have writeups on almost all of the plays on the board.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks again w365 you are one of the best contributors on this board

 

[MikRetSam]

cant wait to see 'em

 

[w365]

Mia-Oh @ B.G. -9.5
Play: Miami of Ohio +10 *buy 0.5*

As I've already said in my previous writeups, home teams ranked 70+ places better should be favored by 20+ and they usually are. When they are not, the line tells me that something very fishy is going on. So far this season, there have been 9 home teams ranked 70+ places better, favored by 19 or less and they are 1-8 ATS with the only winner being Houston last week vs UAB, and that was also the least public team of them all. And even thaugh they covered the -18 line, they stil trailed 20-3 at the halftime. Bowling Green is the first home team ranked 70+ places better that is not even favored by double digits. The closest one was N.Illinois last week against Miami of Ohio and they failed to cover as 10.5 pts faves. BG is one of the most public teams of them all.

Miami of Ohio is 1-5 so far this season, and that is very dissappointing for this team. However, their schedule has been pretty strong, with road games at Cincinnati, Northern Illinois, Michigan, and home tilts vs Temple (much improved), and Vanderbilt. They were very competitive in two road games, at Michigan and at N.Illinois, thanks to their defense that is ranked #47 in total yards and #14 in passing yards (very important against BG). Offensively, they've struggled so far, especially on the ground, but last week they did quite well against NIU, rushing for 145 yards on 30 carries (4.8). They rushed well againts Temple as well, as their two RB's Merriweather and Bratton rushed for 159 yards but they lost a lot of their rushing yards because their two QB's Raudabaugh and Belton rushed for -66 yards. B.Green rushing defense is not very good and they allowed 206 yards last week vs Akron, 147 vs EMU, 192 to Wyoming (!!!), 160 vs Boise, 164 vs Minnesota and 129 vs Pittsburgh. They've been outrushed in every game YTD and they are ranked #103 in rushing offense and #83 in rushing defense. Their overall defense is ranked #80.

Both teams outpassed their opponents in 5 of 6 games played. B.Green's passing offense is ranked a little bit better than Miami's and Miami's passing defense is ranked better than BG's.

Miami of Ohio dominated this series both SU and ATS in last 10 years, going 8-1 SU in last 9 and 7-1 ATS in last 8. They are desperate to get their first conference win in ther wide open MAC-East. BG leads the MAC East with the 1-1 conference record, and they are followed by three teams at 1-2. Miami is 0-2 and with a win here they would be tied with BG at 1-2. So, nothing is stil decided in the MAC East and Miami of Ohio has something to play for.

As for BG, they are in a situation that they've been in twice before YTD. They will try to win consecutive games for the first time this season. In the previous two tries they lost outright as home faves against Minnesota and against E.Michigan, after winning at Pittsburgh and at Wyoming. It's not gonna get any easier this time around, especially after a huge come-from-behind win at Akron last week and a big match @ Northern Illinois next week. Last week @ Akron they trailed 14-0, 21-7, 27-14 before storming back and winning that game in the final 5 minutes. They had to spend a lot of energy in that game and combine that with two straight games where their already shaky defense spent more than 32 minutes on the field and you'll get a very tired team.

I like Miami of Ohio in this matchup and I will buy 0.5 to get to a key number (+10) but I will also throw some money on the moneyline.

 

[w365]

home teams ranked 77+ places better are 30-11 to the under so far this season but this group went only 1-2 last week with the only winner being the under in the houston vs uab game. this week we have s.florida, penn state and louisiana tech in this situation. however, i don't think there is any value with the current totals that we have in these games.

 

[w365]

home teams ranked 54-76 places better and favored by -14/-23 are 2-19 ATS so far this season. there is only one team in that situation this week and it is utah (-21.5 vs colorado state)


Colorado State @ Utah -21.5
Lean (No play): Colorado State +21.5


It is easy to understand why this line is not higher for the highely ranked Utes against 3-3 Colorado State. according to my numbers, a ranked home team with such a differential in ratings should be favored by at least 24 (see boise vs hawaii).

utah is in a classic letdown spot here. they are 7-0 and regardless what happens in the tcu vs byu game, they'll remain the mwc leader as long as they win vs colorado state, even with a 7 pts margin. my guess is, they'll spent most of their mid week time talking aboutthe byu and tcu game, scouting both teams, instead of focussing on colorado state. they are on their bye week next week, so they are already thinking about a 8-0 record when they come back from their bye and start their most important part of the season with road games @ new mexico and san diego state and home clashes vs tcu and byu. for an unbeaten team, it is easy to lose the focus when they know that their first real challege comes in almost a month when they host tcu.

and in the past 4 weeks, despite a close win vs oregon state and a blowout win vs the very bad wyoming team, they have proven to me that they are not in their top form both physically and mentally. first they outgained air force big time, and barely won that game. then they played unconvincingly against the div. I-AA team webber state. then they barely edged oregon state in a big statement and revenge game thanks to the officials late in the game, and finally they won by 33 at wyoming and stil got outgained in that game.

this game is as dangerous as they come for utah, and they should not take this win for granted. colorado state is improving and could take advantage of any utah miscue.

 

[w365]

home teams ranked 31 places or less better than the opponent, favored by -6/-10 are 2-14 ats. northern illinois, tennessee and texas are in this group this week. northern illinois will play toledo, and i can not go with toledo after their big upset win @ michigan last week. they've been very letdown prone so far this season and they are probably taking the northern illinois team not very seriously right now, after dominating them in recent years. the similar situation is expected with the mississippi state after their win vs vanderbilt, and tennessee's ugly game vs georgia. i just can't back the dog in this situation. however, it is a completely opposite situation for texas and missouri.


Missouri +6.5 @ Texas
Play: Missouri +7 *buy 0.5*

i wish i didnt have to buy the half point here as the +7 was avaiable earlier this week, but i'll go for it anyways. buying 0.5 to get to +7 is well worth it when we have two teams that will probably exchange td's and not fg's.

these two teams were involved in big games last week, and texas was the outright winner as the underdog against the #1 sooners while missouri lost outright as the favorite against the nationally ranked, but not highely touted oklahoma state. texas won the game in dramatic fashion, after being down 14-3 early in what looked like a total domination by the #1 team in the country. they spent tons of energy in that rivalery game and they finally got the #1 spot in the nation after being seriously underrated in the first 7 weeks of this season. and now that they are #1 in the nation, the expectations are much much higher, and the big question is, will they deliver and stay perfect with the upcomming schedule that is more than brutal. will they take this missou team seriously after their loss to oklahoma state, and will they look ahead to the next week's game vs oklahoma state as the better of two challengers ? with texas' 4 straight big wins vs missou and a close 38-35 win vs okie state last year, a rivalery game vs the much improved texas tech the week after that, they could very well see this game vs mizzou as the easiest one of the next three games.

as for missouri, nothing is finished yet, because with a win here, they would go up in the rankings and texas would go down, and that would give a loss to sveral teams currently ranked better than them, including texas, georgia, usc, florida, oklahoma and who knows maybe even byu if they lose to tcu this week, alabama if they lose to ole miss this week, and certainly texas tech with games against nationally ranked kansas, texas, oklahoma state and oklahoma later this year. psu also has a couple of taugh games remaining, at ohio state, at iowa and vs michigan state. i just don't see this missouri team quitting, with a real possibility of having 9 or 10 top teams in the nation with at least 1 loss.

last year missouri lost to oklahoma and then they won 6 straight games. then they lost to oklahoma again, and stil followed that loss with a huge win over arkansas in their bowl game. they've been there before, and they know how wide open this league is, and that probably no big conference school will end the season unbeaten. their remaining schedule is much easier with games vs colorado, baylor, kansas state, iowa state and kansas, and they are stil in a good position to finish at 11-1 with a win over texas. this is definately their game of the year. texas played their game of the year last week vs oklahoma.

system of the week: go against the unbeaten teams with 5+ wins after a dog win, if they are favored by 2-15.5 pts and did not win their previous game by more than 10 pts. the system is 25-4-1 ats in last 30 and 9-0-1 ats in last 10. the most recent game from this system: mississippi state beating vanderbilt last week. this system is 13-0-1 ats in last 14 if we disregard by how many points the unbeaten team has won last week.

 

[w365]

home teams ranked 28-41 places better and favored by 7-21 pts are 1-10 ats and this group was a money maker last week. there are several teams in this group this week, including louisville, illini, kentucky, troy, louisiana monroe, but i don't really like any of the dogs to cover, so i will pass on all of them.

 

[w365]

home teams ranked 6-50 places better are 5-27 ats ytd when favored by 8 or less. the 10 most public of them all are 0-10 ats.

this week we have northwestern, n.illinois (already said that i can not go with toledo here), rice (can't go with smiss and their shaky defense against a well rested rice team), texas (already official play on missou), tennessee (already said i can not go with mississippi state) and iowa (wisconsin the most public dog of them all this week, so no way i go with them).

so, here is what i think of nortwestern this week. (relatively big public play).


Purdue @ Northwestern -4
Lean (no play): Purdue +4

Northwester was unbeaten up until last week, and ranked as high as #22. They were exposed and beaten badly by Michigan State and if they were nearly as good as percieved by some, they would be favored by more than 4, at home, against a 2-4 Purdue team.

It is actually amazing that this NW team got into the top 25 after 5 wins vs Iowa (outgained and badly outrushed), Ohio (2-5, lost to wyoming - enough said), S.Illinois (div. i-aa), Duke (barely won the game, outgained, badly outrushed) and Syracuse (1-5, syracuse led in the third qtr).

As for Purdue, their schedule has been a lot stronger, with home games vs psu, oregon and cmu (good mac team) and road games vs notre dame and ohio state. and they've stil been somewhat competitive against many of them. this is their first winnable game since week 3 and the only reason i'm not making them an official play is the fatigue factor, after playing two of the best big 10 schools + notre dame in consecutive weeks. they are healthier, and painter is 2-0 su and ats vs northwestern.

1-5 teams after a loss, favored by 4-16 are 5-23 ats (2-12 ats at home) if they were not favored by more than 2 td's in their previous game.

 

[w365]

thanks again w365 you are one of the best contributors on this board

thank you btp. gl!

 

[w365]

cant wait to see 'em

more to come probably later this week. gl

 

[w365]

home teams ranked 28-47 places better and favored by 10.5-21 pts are 4-16-1 ats ytd. several teams are in this group this week (alabama, louisville, illinois, louisiana monroe) but there is only one that is worth fading imo and it is alabama.


Ole Miss @ Alabama -13
Play: Ole Miss +13

the teams in that 4-16-1 ats group that are favored by less than 14 are 1-9 ats. and with alabama being #2 in the nation, they should be favored by a lot more than 13 against a 3-3 team.

ole miss played much better in the underdog role this season, going 1-1 su and 2-0 ats on the road against nationally ranked teams and only 2-2 su and 1-2 ats as favorites. alabama's best two games came against then highely ranked clemson and georgia. they looked as a different team against tulane and kentucky. ole miss covered the spread as underdog in three straight against alabama and lost all three games by 3 pts, once in overtime. they were underdogs of a TD or more in every game.

Just like Alabama, they've outrushed every opponent ytd and they have been less impressive in their passing game. However, I stil feel that Ole Miss has the passing edge in this game and Alabama the rushing edge.

Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in last 5 and 12-5 ATS in last 12 as underdog and Alabama is 3-8 ATS in last 11 as favorite. Alabama is also 3-10-1 ats in last 14 as home favorite vs opponents with less wins (0-7-1 ats in the SEC).

If Alabama overlooks this Mississippi team the way Florida did earlier this season, they might lose outright. And if they consider LSU to be their first really dangerous opponent, they will be beaten by one of the next three opponents (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas State-probably not). This is a dangerous game for Alabama comming off of their bye week.

the unbeaten teams favored by 13-16.5 pts at home are 3-12 ats with 6 wins and 9-17 ats with 5 wins.

 

[fadethepublic1]

W,
how do you figure out if a team is 28, 30 or 5 places better than another??? Is this your rankings or is this something we can find anywhere (as far as stat websites)?? Your insight is greatly appreciated and makes my plays even more comfy when you're on them.

as always... aloha.

 

[cacheman]

That number has left the building...

home teams ranked 31 places or less better than the opponent, favored by -6/-10 are 2-14 ats. northern illinois, tennessee and texas are in this group this week. northern illinois will play toledo, and i can not go with toledo after their big upset win @ michigan last week. they've been very letdown prone so far this season and they are probably taking the northern illinois team not very seriously right now, after dominating them in recent years. the similar situation is expected with the mississippi state after their win vs vanderbilt, and tennessee's ugly game vs georgia. i just can't back the dog in this situation. however, it is a completely opposite situation for texas and missouri.


Missouri +6.5 @ Texas
Play: Missouri +7 *buy 0.5*

i wish i didnt have to buy the half point here as the +7 was avaiable earlier this week, but i'll go for it anyways. buying 0.5 to get to +7 is well worth it when we have two teams that will probably exchange td's and not fg's.

these two teams were involved in big games last week, and texas was the outright winner as the underdog against the #1 sooners while missouri lost outright as the favorite against the nationally ranked, but not highely touted oklahoma state. texas won the game in dramatic fashion, after being down 14-3 early in what looked like a total domination by the #1 team in the country. they spent tons of energy in that rivalery game and they finally got the #1 spot in the nation after being seriously underrated in the first 7 weeks of this season. and now that they are #1 in the nation, the expectations are much much higher, and the big question is, will they deliver and stay perfect with the upcomming schedule that is more than brutal. will they take this missou team seriously after their loss to oklahoma state, and will they look ahead to the next week's game vs oklahoma state as the better of two challengers ? with texas' 4 straight big wins vs missou and a close 38-35 win vs okie state last year, a rivalery game vs the much improved texas tech the week after that, they could very well see this game vs mizzou as the easiest one of the next three games.

as for missouri, nothing is finished yet, because with a win here, they would go up in the rankings and texas would go down, and that would give a loss to sveral teams currently ranked better than them, including texas, georgia, usc, florida, oklahoma and who knows maybe even byu if they lose to tcu this week, alabama if they lose to ole miss this week, and certainly texas tech with games against nationally ranked kansas, texas, oklahoma state and oklahoma later this year. psu also has a couple of taugh games remaining, at ohio state, at iowa and vs michigan state. i just don't see this missouri team quitting, with a real possibility of having 9 or 10 top teams in the nation with at least 1 loss.

last year missouri lost to oklahoma and then they won 6 straight games. then they lost to oklahoma again, and stil followed that loss with a huge win over arkansas in their bowl game. they've been there before, and they know how wide open this league is, and that probably no big conference school will end the season unbeaten. their remaining schedule is much easier with games vs colorado, baylor, kansas state, iowa state and kansas, and they are stil in a good position to finish at 11-1 with a win over texas. this is definately their game of the year. texas played their game of the year last week vs oklahoma.

system of the week: go against the unbeaten teams with 5+ wins after a dog win, if they are favored by 2-15.5 pts and did not win their previous game by more than 10 pts. the system is 25-4-1 ats in last 30 and 9-0-1 ats in last 10. the most recent game from this system: mississippi state beating vanderbilt last week. this system is 13-0-1 ats in last 14 if we disregard by how many points the unbeaten team has won last week.

Missouri down to +5.5

 

[w365]

W,
how do you figure out if a team is 28, 30 or 5 places better than another??? Is this your rankings or is this something we can find anywhere (as far as stat websites)?? Your insight is greatly appreciated and makes my plays even more comfy when you're on them.

as always... aloha.

its according to my own ratings that are quite different than those widely avaiable. over the years i discovered that my ratings in football and basketball are more accurate against the spread than sagarin's, etc.

 

[w365]

Missouri down to +5.5

i'm now glad i only had to buy 0.5

thanks for the feedback !

 

[beerformyhorses]

w365, thanks for all the info. i have a ?. is missouri still a play at +5.5 or is it a more of a lean? how far down should it go before its not a play. thanks.

 

[dave11486]

Like each one of your plays a lot this week. Too bad, you aren't playing Purdue though, they'll pull out the win IMO. GL