Week 8 CFB Plays

[sendacash]

San Diego State +5

Coming off a losing week #7 going 3-4, bringing the season record to 33-16 ATS. It was not a losing week for Utah St. by any means after dismantling the Mountain West's top dog in Boise St, 52-26. While it certainly was a dominating performance on the scoreboard, the Broncos basically handed Utah the game on a silver platter with 7 first half turnovers. I look for this to be a letdown situation for these Aggies as Utah State entered Friday night having lost 12 straight games to No. 21 Boise State with its last victory over the Broncos coming 18 years ago. Utah State coach Matt Wells, who called it ''maybe the greatest win in program history. ''... It's huge. I make no bones about it. I've been saying it - out of respect - the road to the championship goes through Boise. Till someone knocks them off the throne, it's theirs. Now Utah St. has to head out on the road to face a San Diego St. team who's also coming off a decisive victory in what should be a low scoring game (total = 45), I'll take the points with the home dog.

 

[sendacash]

Arkansas -6

I like how this Arkansas rushing offense matches up against the Auburn rushing defense. The Tigers rank 13th out of 14 in the SEC in rushing defense with 197.67 yards per game and 101st overall. The Tigers have allowed a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns while giving up 5.1 YPR to teams that average 4.7 YPR. While the Hogs running game was shutdown two weeks ago against Alabama, I look for them to get it going this week coming off a bye against this Auburn D and we all know that Bielema will try to do just that. Before Tuesday’s practice, Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen said the Razorbacks need their imposing offensive line to control Auburn’s powerful defensive line in order to open up the running game for Collins and Rawleigh Williams. “One of our goals is to run the ball to open up that play-action pass,” Allen said. “We need to keep our offense on the field and keep their up-tempo offense off the field.” I think Arkansas should have an advantage at the QB position as senior QB Brandon Allen has a QB rating ranked #26th overall while Auburn will be starting a red-shirt freshman at QB.

 

[TheOracle6]

Love the play, which is why I'm putting it as part of a 3tm 10pt teaser. I like Arkansas defensively against Auburn's run game and inexperienced QB.

 

[sendacash]

Good luck to you this week TheOracle6, hopefully we won't be needing those 10 extra points.

 

[Incubus]

San Diego State +5

Coming off a losing week #7 going 3-4, bringing the season record to 33-16 ATS. It was not a losing week for Utah St. by any means after dismantling the Mountain West's top dog in Boise St, 52-26. While it certainly was a dominating performance on the scoreboard, the Broncos basically handed Utah the game on a silver platter with 7 first half turnovers. I look for this to be a letdown situation for these Aggies as Utah State entered Friday night having lost 12 straight games to No. 21 Boise State with its last victory over the Broncos coming 18 years ago. Utah State coach Matt Wells, who called it ''maybe the greatest win in program history. ''... It's huge. I make no bones about it. I've been saying it - out of respect - the road to the championship goes through Boise. Till someone knocks them off the throne, it's theirs. Now Utah St. has to head out on the road to face a San Diego St. team who's also coming off a decisive victory in what should be a low scoring game (total = 45), I'll take the points with the home dog.

Thanks for your analysis, and congrats on a super college football season ATS so far.

I really really like this play, but still a little nervous to pull the trigger. I want to believe that Utah State has been partying their collective asses off all weekend/week after that Boise State lopsided victory and will be FLAT for this encounter with the Aztecs. LET DOWN potential for sure.

What final score do you forecast for this game? :think2:

Do you think San Diego State has any chance for the SU "upset" victory? :think2:

 

[sendacash]

Incubus, I think a low scoring game should be expected with a total currently set at 44, we have the #2 and #3 ranked total defenses in the MWC which should be able to control the #9 and #10 ranked total offenses. Plus the fact that these teams are running game oriented, especially SD State that clock should be ticking. I made the line Utah St. -2 so yeah San Diego certainly has a decent shot at the SU win. I would have liked to get a better number, like maybe +6 but did not think it was going to happen but you might want to wait and see how it unfolds if you are on the fence as 5 not a key number.

 

[sendacash]

Virginia Tech -2.5

We lost backing the Hokies last week in a turnover plagued performance against Miami which was frustrating as I really thought they were going to cover that number (+6) as the teams played fairly evenly, however the -4 turnover margin doomed the play. This line is a little bit of a head scratcher according to my power ratings, however I think what we are seeing here is a tale of two teams recent ATS records. Va Tech has been a money burner going 13-18 ATS since 2013, meanwhile Duke has been a virtual ATM with a blistering 24-9 ATS record over that span. I think the cat is finally out of the bag on the Blue Devils as evidenced by the 73% of early bettors on Duke thus far and Vegas eventually adjusts to these trends by invoking a spread tax on those who want to ride the money train. I suppose one could argue that Duke is being disrespected by this line as the #23 ranked team getting points from an un-ranked foe, but is Duke really deserving of that ranking, who have they beaten? Duke ranks 104th in Sagarin SOS while Va Tech is 34th. The Duke defense has been tremendous ranking second nationally in passing defense (131.2 ypg), second in scoring defense (9.3 ppg) and fourth in total defense (252.8 ypg), a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils’ recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Like N.C. State, the schedule factors into that lofty ranking. Of the five Football Bowl Subdivision teams the Blue Devils have played, four — Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane — rank 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only team in the top half of FBS offenses that Duke has played is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th and they were actually out gained in that victory over the Yellow Jackets.

The Duke Offense, Advanced Stats:

Here’s a look at the Duke offense when compared to the Tech defense. First, the offense…

Overall: #99
Passing: #89
Rushing: #74
Success Rate: #104
Explosive Plays: #95

And now, the Tech defense…

Overall: #31
Passing: #44
Rushing: #33
Success Rate: #17
Explosive Plays: #123

Despite Duke’s gaudy record, their offense has not been good. Here’s how their total yards have broken down game-by-game…

Tulane: 530
NC Central: 655
Northwestern: 327
Georgia Tech: 279
Boston College: 228
Army: 468

The Blue Devils have done very well against weak competition, but the three Power 5 teams they have faced have shut down their offense.

Thomas Sirk and the Passing Game

Sirk (6-4, 215, r-Jr.) is in his first year as a starter. His stats are modestly good (62.4%, 1,260 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs). However, he struggled against the three Power 5 conference teams he faced.

Northwestern: 24-of-39, 150 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. 150 yards on 39 attempts is not good.
Georgia Tech: 17-of-25, 114 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs. Sirk almost spoiled a great defensive effort.
Boston College: 18-of-36, 195 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. BC has one of the nation’s best defenses.

Sirk racked up nearly all his stats against teams with inferior talent, and struggled against the three teams he faced who had a pulse. That being said, he doesn’t have the most talented group of wide receivers to fall back on.


The Duke Defense, Advanced Stats

The Duke defense has been excellent this year. Here’s a look at their numbers…

Overall: #3
Passing: #7
Rushing: #12
Success Rate: #5
Explosive Plays: #2

And here’s how the Tech offense matches up…

Overall: #63
Passing: #47
Rushing: #95
Success Rate: #78
Explosive Plays: #86

On paper, this isn’t a particularly good matchup for the Tech offense. However, let’s dig a little deeper and look at the S&P+ offensive ranking for each team the Blue Devils have faced…

Tulane: #120
Northwestern: #93
Georgia Tech: #43
Boston College: #124
Army: #90

The Duke defense has faced four of the worst offenses in the country, and even Georgia Tech’s offense is fairly limited this season. While the Blue Devil defense is good, they probably aren’t quite as good as their numbers indicate.


Bottom line here Virginia Tech's last 22 seasons have culminated with a bowl game and since it plays three of its final four contests on the road, Saturday's Homecoming clash with Duke seems paramount to the Hokies continuing the nation's longest postseason streak. The Hokies should get a boost from the return of QB Michael Brewer who went down earlier in the year against Ohio State and came on in relief during the second half last week. If Va Tech can limit the mistakes, I think their defense should be able to hold a limited Duke offense in check and I think QB Brewer will be able to do enough to win this game in Blacksburg.

 

[bobbyjones2]

that arkansas number really jumped out..its like no one will admit to over estimating auburn this year...in a game they had to have, they escaped kentucky with a 3 point win..hurrah...

arkansas, they dont fake you, they just break you..and with a defense that doesn t stop the run well, the razorbacks aint exactly the type of team u right the ship against...

rain for game? i like the team running north and south..also a freshman qb handling a wet ball? its going to be on the ground a few times...

love the play

 

[indiana]

S/$..........good luck with your action this week end............indy

 

[sendacash]

Thanks Indy, I could use some turnover luck this week after the A&M and Va Tech debacles.

 

[sendacash]

Nebraska -7 (-120)

We've gone against Nebraska a few times already this season and have been rewarded cashing two tickets along with a push (thanks Al Golden), however I think it's time to flip the script and start backing the Corn as we find these two teams currently headed in opposite directions. Nebraska is better than its record suggests and may well be the best 3-4 team in the country. If you only looked at its record, you would assume that Nebraska has played pretty poorly this year, but that's not really the case. The Cornhuskers' four losses have come by a combined 11 points, they could easily be sitting at 6-1 right now if a few plays had gone their way. For comparison, Northwestern (5-2, 1-2), ranked No. 13 two weeks ago, has been outscored 78-10 in back-to-back losses to Michigan and Iowa, a continuation of the program's October struggles under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats are 2-8 in October games the last three years and have had above-.500 Octobers just twice in Fitzgerald's first nine seasons.

There are a couple aspects to this match-up which appear favorable to Nebraska. the first surprisingly enough is the Huskers pass defense, it's been well documented that the Huskers have struggled defending the pass this year ranking #128th overall in passing yards allowed, 341 yards per game. However, Nebraska's weakness defending the pass is not likely to be exploitable by a Northwestern offense that ranks last in the Big 10 with 141 passing Yards/G and 120th overall. Redshirt freshman QB Clayton Thorson has struggled in the passing game this year, with a 99.22 QB rating (#121) and only 5.2 Yards/Att (#127) with 5 TDs to 5 INTs and completing only 52% of his passes.

The Wildcats are having "some" success running the ball this season ranking 44th in the country in rush yards per game. That hides the issue with the running game. Northwestern has ran the ball 336 times this season which ranks inside the top-10 nationally, but is averaging just 3.97 yards per carry which ranks 89th in the country. But Nebraska's defense has been pretty good against the run this season. The Cornhuskers sport the 26th-best rushing defense in the country this season according to S&P+. Nebraska's defensive backs play an aggressive style that has led them (cornberback Joshua Kalu, safeties Byerson Cockrell and Nate Gerry, and cornerback Jonathan Rose) to be the team's top four tacklers. After giving up just 2.5 yards per rush to Minnesota last week, Nebraska's rush defense is looking good.

Nebraska has been injury plagued all season, and it is finally starting to regain its health. It looks like Michael Rose-Ivey could return for the Huskers, which would help the linebacking corps. Add in Freedom Akinmoladun and the return of Daniel Davie, and the Husker defense is beginning to take shape once more. The Husker offense has been improving lately as well, including star wide receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El getting more and more snaps on offense. The Husker defense is going to improve with the return of key players, and this Nebraska offense is going to get that much better with DPE returning to form.

Not sure what's going on as I seem to be drawn to the chalk this week but the bottom line, I don't think Northwestern's offense is going to be able to keep up with Nebraska as Northwestern is scoring just 19.6 points per game, which ranks 117th in the country compared to Nebraska's 32.4 ranking 51st. On a per play basis the Wildcats average only 4.4 YPP on offense against teams that give up an average of 4.9 YPP on defense. Meanwhile, Nebraska is gaining 6.3 YPP versus teams that have been allowing 5.2 YPP on defense so I'm laying the chalk with the Corn.

 

[CoachCB]

Very good writeups.

I'm loving watching Will Muschamp's last place defense get pounded.

 

[mudman]

Like your reasoning, BOL to you.

 

[sendacash]

USC -3.5

Don't have a write up on this game, I like the RLM on the public dog while supported by my power ratings.

 

[sendacash]

Colorado -1

Colorado brings a 14 game Pac-12 losing streak into this game, but now they finally find an opponent in Oregon State they should be able to handle. The Buffs have been competitive in many of these losses. Since the start of the 2014 season, they've led or been tied at the half in six of their 12 Pac-12 games – including twice this year – and lost them all. In another game, they had a lead in overtime and lost. While CU has allowed at least 36 points in 12 consecutive Pac-12 games, Oregon State has the worst offense in the conference this year, at 21.7 points and 332.7 yards per game and this Beavers squad has been outgained by all but 1 FBS opponent so far this season.

Colorado junior QB Sefo Liufau wasn't sharp early in the year and then injured his shoulder in Week 3. That affected him for a couple of weeks, but we're led to believe his shoulder is fine now. Coach Mike MacIntyre and Liufau said last week he felt great in practice and then he went out and had his best game of the season against Arizona. Colorado has had problems protecting Liufau this year, but OSU ranks last in the Pac-12 with just eight sacks on the season. Getting pressure on Liufau is important, because the Buffs quarterback has proven to be at his best when he has time to throw. On the other side, true freshman Seth Collins is one of the lowest-rated passers in the country(#122) and has completed just 51.7 percent of his passes at 5.3 Yards/Att. However, Collins is the type of mobile QB that Colorado has struggled with this year as the Buffaloes' linebacking corps that has been decimated by injuries forced the Buffs to go with all freshmen at inside linebacker last week. This week they get junior LB Kenneth Olugbode back from injury and that should help as he was their leading tackler from last season.

I see Colorado as the more talented team that is desperately seeking a Pac-12 conference victory and despite their road woes, I expect them to come away with a win Saturday night. As I started typing this write up it was Colorado +2 and I was hoping for 2.5, looks like someone came in and slammed the Buffs, normally it would have moved me off taking a steamed line of 3 points, but I made Colorado -4.5 and with the line move around the 0 I still think this is a viable play.