Week 8: Big Card, More Choices

[ofred]

Really like the larger card this week. With many teams playing their first game, we're all trying to find that angle or edge that can pay off on these Week One teams. In the meantime, got a couple of weekday starters that look good.

Went 5-0 on the larger plays last week. YTD: 19-15, +10.55 units

1* Arkansas St. +14 (-115) I know, the Ark. St. defense is abysmal. But you had to be impressed by the creativity of their offense last week, and that they have some playmakers that can give any Sun Belt team a headache. App. State is hard to gauge so far. They haven't played in almost a month, and that last game was vs. Campbell. Their offense sucked against Marshall, and played pretty well two months ago vs. Charlotte. My issue with App. State is that they pretty much get the same talent as Ark. State, have lost some very good talent the last couple of years to graduation, and have lost their top 4-5 tacklers from last season(the LB corp were All-SBC last season, and now gone). Their QB Zac Thomas is a good dual threat QB, but as a passer, he's not any better than the two guys that QB for Ark. State. This play says that the Mountaineers have a down season and that their talent loss/parity catches up to them vs. dynamic offenses.


1* ULL -1.5 Bill Napier has done a nice job in recent years of getting his players to rebound from losses. He has a veteran team that really doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. ULL QB Levi Lewis is a senior that has played well in big games. He has a great run game to go along with his own threat to run. ULL has had some covid issues, injuries, etc. but should be pretty much at a normal roster this week. UAB has been impressive this season record-wise. They're 4-1, although their 4 wins have been against pretty weak teams, especially teams that have very limited offenses. They lost their QB to injury and now start a redshirt freshman that is a pocket passer that hasn't faced a D front 7 like this except for a short stint vs. Miami. What impressed me in the ULL win at Iowa State is how well their defense played.

 

[hilltop]

Enjoy your write ups. Nice YTD record. GLTU this wekend. Thanks o fred.

 

[indiana]

Fred..........
Here's to a strong start to the week buddy.......BOL and a sweep.......indy

 

[ofred]

3* Liberty/ SMiss- over 60.5 ​ Liberty is 5-0 partly because they haven't played an offense that is even considered mediocre. What Liberty does have is a very dynamic running game. Usually, run heavy teams do not make good OVER plays. But SMiss has a dreadful run defense. And their pass defense isn't much better. Liberty QB, the elusive Malik Willis, should really have a field day. He just carved up Syracuse, which has a better D than SMiss. On the other hand, Jack Abraham, the SMiss QB is the best passer Liberty has faced this season. He might pass 50 times this contest, trying to keep up on scoring. SMiss plays a risk-taking strategy on both sides of the ball. They have gotten burned defensively, and yet have some success offensively. Key angle here is that Liberty has a lot of new defenders, haven't played anyone good offensively, and they will have to play a more wide open game here. I also expect Liberty to gouge SMiss with large gains on the ground. Back door cover possible.

3* Memphis -13 Temple has played some very good defense the past 3-4 years, but this season they are weak on that side of the ball. They also have faced two fairly conservative offenses in Navy and USF. Memphis might be coming off their UCF win, but they will be motivated. Temple upset them last season, nearly ruining their season. Memphis might have also given up a ton of points to UCF, but I think their defense is better than that. UCF is nearly impossible to stop, and Memphis finally held fast 4th quarter when they had to. The Temple offense is more experienced, but QB Russo is kind of a statue back there in the pocket. Nothing like Dillon Gabriel. Temple lost their two top OL to graduation, and though they have some playmakers, I'm gambling Memphis can get to Russo a few times, who is somewhat turnover prone. Brady White has taken another step as the Memphis QB. More efficient, less prone to TOs, better decision-making. Blowout possibility.

3* Iowa State +3.5 Is Oklahoma State really that much better on defense this season? We'll see Saturday as they finally play an offense better than Tulsa, WVU and Kansas. Much better. I also wonder if Okie State really has their QB situation figured out. Spencer Sanders plays? No doubt he and Chuba give them a very good run game. But I don't think offensively, they have the downfield game that is often needed when playing a good opponent. I have only seen Iowa State play Oklahoma, but I was impressed. They had a nice defensive game that limited Oklahoma's offense, holding them to some FGs and not letting them strike with more than a couple of long gainers. They're physical and smart, and well-coached. Iowa State might lose, but I can just as likely see them winning here, but definitely keeping it close throughout. They get a big edge in SOS here.

 

[indiana]

Fred........BOL with your action buddy.....will probably be riding with you........

here's to a sweep of your card........indy

 

[ofred]

Good Luck to you Indy, hilltop...

2* UNC -15.5 This line is kind of a shock considering how well NC State has played. However, with their QB out, I think we'll see a huge drop-off at that position with his backup. Bailey Hockman looked awful 2nd half vs. Duke, and he's turnover prone. Weak arm, so-so mobility. UNC has been an enigma. They beat VT handily, then lose to FSU. But they have a dynamic offense that should be able to exploit NC State. If Hockman struggles like I think he will, they also might get some short fields, a turnover score, and pull away 2nd half. I also think this line is way for the bookmakers to draw public money on the dog. UNC had a terrible 1st half vs. FSU, but other than that, they've played well. Sam Howell is only going to get better.

2* BC -3 (-124) BC is underrated. They turned the ball over last week 2nd half vs. VT, but otherwise they have been gamers all season. Their QB, Phil Jurkovec, has been a find. He has been sacked a bit, turned the ball over a few times, but he plays with a lot of guts, has an accurate arm, and knows how to hang in there under pressure. BC also a much better defense than Tech. Tech's blowout loss vs. Clemson was expected, but they have been terrible on that side of the ball all year. Their secondary can't cover, allows huge spacing between them and the receivers, and tackle poorly. GT's QB, Jeff Sims, is mobile and can run, but as a passer, he's one of the worst in the ACC. BC only has to cover 3, at home.

 

[ofred]

In on the Big Ten:

2* Minnesota +3.5 Going to go with the experienced, more likely to score first game, and ride with the Gophers. I have to say I was impressed with what Fleck and his staff did with this team last season...beating Auburn in their bowl game, beating Penn State. They do have a lot to replace on defense, but with Michigan going with a fairly inexperienced QB, and a defense that also lost some great talent the last 2 years, what the hell... Michigan also has a penchant for playing poorly in big games, and started the last 2 seasons poorly. Harbaugh is the guy that rebuilt this program, but his over the top intensity and pressure from losing big games, has got to rub off a bit on his players. At times, Minnesota might get pushed around defensively, but they get the benefit of playing at home with an offense that should click right off the bat.

2* Indiana +7 (-120) Not real happy to play a public dog, but I think the Hoosiers will surprise at the start of the season. QB Pennix really could shine here as he has in the past, but injuries are always a possibility later in the season. Penn State lost some very good talent defensively, including their best defender Micah Parsons. Also, not as enamored with Sean Clifford. Strong arm, can move pretty well, and has made some big plays. But he also holds the ball too long, is turnover prone, and can eyeball his primary receivers too much. Zone defenses can give him trouble. I will count on Indiana HC Tom Allen, a long time DC to come up with a game plan that will negate some of the edges PSU has offensively. Indiana has always lost players during the season by injury(attrition), but should have be fine game one...with a pretty strong secondary and DL.

1* Illinois +20.5. With Jonathon Taylor gone and with the underrated QB Jack Can out, Illinois might have enough offense to make this a game. We all know Wisconsin reloads at RB, but Taylor was way special. Predicting Wisconsin, game one, to play a little conservatively with their young QB, and the fact that Illinois' defense has a knack for causing turnovers. Revenge is Wisconsins', but the points are too hefty to pass up in the first game, with a decent Illini offense and a lesser Badger offense. Wisconsin does have the strong D, so let's hope Illinois can get creative here.

 

[ofred]

1* Miami/ Virginia- under 56 This line has come down a bit probably due to Saturday's gametime weather conditions. Should be raining about 60-70% of the time, breezy, and on a grass field. I also expect a better defensive effort from both teams. Virginia has to be better defensively than what they have showed so far. D'Eriq King is the straw that stirs the Miami offense, but his receivers have been an overall disappointment, and changes are being made. King also is short, has passes batted down, and deflected passes intercepted. 3 last week vs. Pitt. Virginia will go with a couple of different QBs this week since their starter is out. They looked okay vs. a weak Wake Forest defense, but should struggle here vs. a better, faster D. With weather conditions as they look, expect more time-consuming running.

 

[ofred]

4* Memphis (up from 3*) Last unit is at -120.

1* UTEP+16 UTEP's transfers, and a much improved defense, give them a chance here. Besides, Charlotte has a woeful run defense and UTEP should be able to get Deion Hawkins going to compliment a questionable passing game. Charlotte is a run heavy team, and they tend to go on long, time-consuming drives. UTEP should be able to stifle their offense enough to stay within the number. UTEP at 3-2, who would have thought?


1* Rice -3 (-130) Would maybe play this at a 2*, but the -2 is gone, and now the extra juice at 3 is getting expensive. Rice was much more competitive last season than most of thought. They are always physical, defense improved, but they didn't have a QB that move the ball. Apparently their QB transfer from TCU, Michael Collins, easily won the job in camp and has looked good. MTSU has now played 5 weeks in a row, and have to be a little beaten up. They also lack any resemblance of a defense. Rice might be a bit rusty, but by the second half, should be able to put the Blue Raiders away. The program at Rice just senses optimism for this season, and I'll give it a shot.

 

[ofred]

1* Troy/ Georgia St.-over 69 The weather is likely to not be a factor here, but bad defense is. Just a play that takes two offenses that can both run and pass well, and two defenses that just allow too much space and tackle poorly. If this game hit the 80s or higher, I'll kick myself for not playing more units.


1* Texas Tech +3 (-120) Instead of playing Kansas State -20 vs. a bad KU team, I'll go against KU's opponent from last week. West Virginia did everything possible to screw up what should have been an easy cover. Penalties, costly turnovers, a kickoff return, etc. They should have beaten Kansas by 35 or more. I have to go with Tech here in a game they have to win just to have some hope for their season. They really have a better offensive attack than what they showed vs. ISU. The defense is better than previous years, and should be enough to limit WVU's mistake prone offense. Not a fan of WVU QB Jarret Doege. Looks rattled at times, too glued to the pocket, and doesn't have the option of running.

 

[ofred]

This should do it. Late plays on Saturday have not gone well, so gonna refrain tomorrow AM.

1* Georgia Southern +5.5 Like Marshall, CCU will at some point regress to the mean. Would be on FAU +17 except they might be missing a s**tload of players testing positive to the virus. GS played a practice game last week with UMass, but they are competitive in games like this, and are good enough to pull the outright upset. Coastal Carolina really has played well, but they could be due for a loss here, if not a tight game. They struggled with their run defense last season, and overall defensively. Are they much improved? Since GS ran a total vanilla offense/ defense last week with UM, it's almost like both teams are coming off a bye.

1* Tennessee +22. Someone has to bet on the Vols here. They have a good enough defense to at least make Bama work for their points. Tennessee at home, and if they don't turn the ball over, they can keep it closer than 22. Big if, I know. Alabama coming off big game with Georgia, crazy game with Ole Miss, and the A&M game, could they have a slight letdown?

 

[ofred]

Looking at 0-2 on 1* plays so far.

2* South Carolina +4.5 Myles Brennan has been a bright spot for LSU this season. A surprise because I don't think LSU fans expected much in the post-Joe Burrow era. Unfortunately, he's out this week, and two freshman will share the starting job. I got a sense that neither are quite ready. Could be a huge drop-off at the most important position on the field. LSU has seen their defense shredded this fall. Even Missouri and Conner Bazelak(who?) put 45 on them, and almost 600 yards. Missouri, who scored 12 the game before. South Carolina is coming off a big win vs. Auburn, but at least they won't have to face the raucous crowd in Death Valley. I think 25% of capacity will attend. Collin Hill has been accurate as a passer, but SC receivers have dropped too many balls. They have shown improvement this season defensively.

 

[ofred]

To all the gutsy Rutgers bettors, nice job. Wanted to play it, but just couldn't get by last year and how bad they were.

 

[ofred]

1* Houston 2H -6.5 ​Navy lucky to be in this game. 2 long passes, a turnover, not really running the ball well vs. Houston D. Can't see Navy defense holding up 2nd half.

Oh, and Georgia Tech has the worst defense in the ACC by far.