Week 8 and more

[russ1945]

7 teams have already dropped from the preseason AP top 25 – UCLA, S Car, LSU, Wisc, N. Carolina, Mizzou, and Washington. As I pointed out in my offseason thread teams that fall from the AP preseason top 25 and do not stick for the final AP 25 are bet against teams. The teams that have fallen already are a combined 14-28-1 ATS (33%).

The teams who have replaced them are bet on teams, they are: Miss St, TCU, Oklahoma St, Arizona E. Carolina, Utah, and Marshall. Combined those teams are a combined 26-12-1 (68%). I pointed out in the off season that usually around 8 teams take the fall. If you do not count Okla St they are 24-9 (73%).

If you look at the current AP top 25 you might consider who might be most likely to fall between now and the end of the season. Okla State still has to play TCU, Kansas St, Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma so I think you can kiss them good bye. They have only one SU loss to date but that will change. There are 4 other teams in the top 25 that already have 2 losses, one more loss might seal the deal for them. Texas A&M still has to play Alabama, Auburn, Mizzou, and LSU. USC still has to face Utah, Cal, UCLA, and Notre Dame. Stanford still has to play Oregon, Utah, Cal, and UCLA. Clemson still has to play Georgia Tech and S Carolina.

There are still some teams lurking. Marshall just joined the AP top 25 as I predicted in the off season. Here are some other teams that only have one SU loss YTD. Colorado St (4-1), Duke (5-1), Iowa (5-1) Kentucky (5-1), Minnesota (5-1), Oregon St (4-1), Rutgers (5-1), Temple (4-1), and Washington (5-1). Many of those teams have some tough games ahead also.

It is worth mentioning that Notre Dame was ranked as having the toughest schedule this season by Phil Steele and they have survived undefeated to date. Their matchup with Florida St in week 8 will probably tell the tale as they wind up the season playing consecutive games against Arizona St, NW, Louisville and at USC. This week’s matchup is a home game for Florida St and they are off the following week. Notre Dame is also off on week 9 so both teams should lay it all out there. Notre Dame has already defeated Stanford who is still ranked #1 in scoring defense. Florida St has faced the #61, an unranked, #34, #83, #58,and #71 ranked scoring defenses. Of course there is much more to handicap in this matchup but I just thought I would point that out.

Glad to see Miss St was moved to #1 ahead of Florida St. That matchup with Ole Miss in their last game of the season is at Oxford which will make it even tougher. Maybe more fans should bring cow bells to games. BOL

 

[russ1945]

ATS is what it is all about when it comes to wagering. ATS information is important but it is also important to relate the ATS information to other relative statistics to see if certain categories are more deserving of monitoring. For instance I will take a look at 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down conversions both offensive and defensive. Keep in mind that statistics in this category do not differentiate critical 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down conversions from normal ones. However, over the span of a season that information becomes much more meaningful. At this point of the season it is still useful. Let’s take a look.

Offense – this would be how many times the offense of a given team is successful on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down conversions. If you consider the top 25 in this category you would find that the top 25 teams combined are 80-67-2 ATS (55%). The teams whose records best reflect that success are Colorado ST (5-1 ATS), Arkansas (5-1 ATS), Ole Miss (5-0-1 ATS), Marshall (4-1-1 ATS), and Ohio St (4-1 ATS). Keep in mind that although Alabama is # 5 in this category they are 1-5 ATS, and Florida St at #17 is 1-5 ATS.

Defense – this would be how many times the defense of a given team is successful stopping the opposing team’s offense on a third down attempt. The top 25 in this category are a combined 88-57 ATS (61%). TCU is ranked #9 (5-0 ATS), Ole Miss (5-0-1 ATS), FIU #16 (6-1 ATS), Nebraska #7 (5-1 ATS), Miss St #12 (5-1 ATS), and Arkansas St (5-1 ATS).
Ole Miss and USC are the only 2 teams ranked in the top 25 in both categories.

In the Offense category it is notable that Florida ranks #116, Texas #108, Missouri #100, LSU #99, Wisconsin #97. That is a big factor in their lack of success so far this season. Oklahoma Ranks #96 and it is starting to catch up with them

In the Defense category it is notable that Cincinnati ranks #123, NC ST #122, N. Car #114, Oregon #113, and Georgia Tech #101. Florida St is ranked #94.

Again 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs are just one of many statistical categories that can relate to success as far as ATS is concerned. But it is obvious that is has helped define several teams and either made them successful or not.

BOL

 

[russ1945]

Another category that gets a lot of attention especially from broadcasters is Red Zone Offense and Defense.

To make it short and simple teams who rank in the top 25 in Red Zone Offense are a combined 71-76 (49%). It is worth noting that UCLA is ranked #1 and they are (1-5 ATS) and Florida St is ranked #2 and they are also (1-5 ATS). Wisconsin ranks #93, Clemson #110, and Stanford #118 in this category.

It appears that Red Zone Defense is more relevant to ATS success. Combined the top 25 in that category are 83-70 ATS (55%). Again Florida St is highly ranked in the category at #10 (again 1-5 ATS) and only 4 teams in the top 25 have losing records ATS. Miss St is ranked #2 (5-1 ATS) and FIU is ranked #5 (6-1 ATS).
Worth noting is that in this category W Vir is ranked #120, Arizona #117, S. Car #113, Baylor #110, Kansas St #106 tied with Ohio St #106 and Texas A&M #96.

The following teams have allowed a score every time their opponent has entered the red zone: W. Virginia, Tenn, Indiana, and Illinois.

So I have dealt with two stats that most people do not scrutinize much less try to relate to ATS success or failure. Like I said there is much more to the equation but handicapping should consider more than less.

 

[russ1945]

Last but not least in relative statistics is Turnover Margin.

The top 25 teams in that category are a combined 91-60 ATS (61%).

Teams currently in the AP top 25 that rank in the top 25 in Turnover Margin are: Michigan St #2, Oregon #5 tied with Georgia #5, TCU #7, Oklahoma #8, Utah #11, USC #15, Ole Miss #15, Auburn #23, and Clemson #23. Combined those teams are 36-21 ATS (64%).

That’s all for now.

 

[CoachCB]

What's your take on the FSU/ND game this week?

 

[russ1945]

What's your take on the FSU/ND game this week?

I will post an in depth take by wednesday.

 

[Cantpickem]

great stuff. thanks

 

[pizzap]

good info. Thanks!

 

[russ1945]

Only 2 teams still have not lost ATS: TCU (5-0) and Ole Miss (5-0-1) – using vegasinsider.com as my reference. Conn is the only team remaining who is yet to win ATS.

FIU is now 6-1 ATS pretty sporty for a team that ranks #119 in the nation in total offense. How do they do it. Well for starters their avg point diff is only -2.8 ppg. They usually get more than that. Also they rank #1 in blocked punts, #15 in passing yds allowed, and #3 in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down defense. They are #23 in total defense and #24 in scoring defense. SU up winning records are often deceiving as they are 3-4 SU on the year.

East Carolina, Florida, Mid Tenn St, N. Texas, Ohio St, and Tulsa all have won 3 or more games ATS at home (undefeated).

 

[russ1945]

Here is my break down for the N Dame vs. Florida St matchup:

Florida St – 6-0 SU, 1-5 ATS (0-3 ATS at home)
Notre Dame – 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS (0-1 away)

Total Offense – Fl St #32/462.5 ypg ND #42/444.3 ypg
Scoring Offense – Fl St #20/39 ppg ND #40/34.5
Total Defense – Fl St #43/358.5 ypg ND #34/348.3 ppg
Scoring Defense – Fl St #30/20.7 ppg ND #8/17.2 ppg

Pt Diff Advantagae – Fl St +1 ppg

N Dame has the advantage in rushing defense giving up 34.3 ypg less than Fl St. Also ND has a 25.3 ypg advantage in rushing offense.

Fl St has a passing advantage over ND of 43.5 ypg and a passing defense advantage of 24.1 ypg

ND ranks #46 in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down defense and Fl St #94.

Florida St ranks higher than ND in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down conversions but ND has converted more times than Fl St

Florida St has scored every time they got to the red zone (19 for 19)

Turnover Margin – ND ranks #30, Fl St #77

Punting – neither team is highly rated and both are below 40 net yds per punt

Penalties – Neither team gets more than 50 yds a game in penalties

Fl St allows 2.3 sacks per game and N.D. averages 2 sacks per game.

ND is ranked #8 in pass interceptions and Fl St #67.

Winston is #13 in individual total offense (328.8 ypg), Golson is #19 (315.3 ppg)

Phil Steele ranked ND with th #1 toughest schedule in the nation. Fl St was ranked #46.

One stat that popped out to me was that Fl St only rushed for 13 yds against Clemson which is the #11 ranked team against the rush. ND is ranked #19 in that category. The key to the game may be how successful ND is in controlling the Fl St rushing attack. Stanford averages 150.5 ypg rushing and ND held them to 47 yds rushing. Florida St averages 138.5 rushing ypg.

 

[bobbyjones2]

incredible information russ..much obliged

only thing that worries me about this game, is there seems to be much nd love already..

i cannot believe this line is dd...7 to me, would be alittle on the high side..

 

[indiana]

R/1945........once again, outstanding info.........much appreciated.......continued success this week...............indy

 

[russ1945]

Thanks guys. Sounds like Winston is walking the plank as we speak lol.

 

[rush__man]

im a little confused. are you using total ATS for teams that fell out? or is that the record AFTER they fell out? same for teams that jumped in. if its AFTER that shows a trend worth jumping on. thank you for your cooperation!

 

[russ1945]

im a little confused. are you using total ATS for teams that fell out? or is that the record AFTER they fell out? same for teams that jumped in. if its AFTER that shows a trend worth jumping on. thank you for your cooperation!

Every week I update ATS information for the teams that fell out year to date. The system is based on how they do for the entire year that they fall out not just when they fell out, they are bet against teams for the entire year. Same goes for the one's that replace them, it is their record for the entire year that gets the ATS percentages that apply. You have to do a little guessing right from the get go for the one's that fall and the one's who replace them both. I have been going with Marshall every week. Steele had TCU in his top 25 and the AP did not. If you went with them from that start you would be way ahead. As far as a trend worth jumping on that depends when you jump on it. That's why I put it on my off season thread. So you can weed out the teams that are most likely to fall and so you can narrow down the list of teams that will replace them. Remember usually around 8 fall out every season. If you jumped on Miss St and Ole Miss early then you are also way ahead. The system is consistent but it takes a lot of studying schedules, returning personnel, and coaching changes to narrow down the teams that might fall and those who might replace them. That's why they call it gambling. BOL

 

[MoneyMiller]

Interesting nugget I ran across
Ranked teams vs. Unranked teams last week
Went 1-10 ATS
5 games where both squads ranked & 4 byes

 

[russ1945]

Interesting nugget I ran across
Ranked teams vs. Unranked teams last week
Went 1-10 ATS
5 games where both squads ranked & 4 byes

And despite that teams that are currently in the AP top 25 are 83-58 ATS (59%). If you take out Alabama and Fl State who are both 1-5 ATS the other 23 teams are 81-48 (63%). As I pointed out in post #1 the teams that have fallen are 14-28-1 ATS (33%). So betting against them would be 67% ATS. The stat you posted also includes teams who were in the top 25 last week and are not this week so that may or may not apply to the long term system. BOL

 

[duckhunter]

Great info, Russ......so, i would guess, it is a good idea to bet against the 7 teams that have dropped out for the remainder of the year?

 

[russ1945]

Great info, Russ......so, i would guess, it is a good idea to bet against the 7 teams that have dropped out for the remainder of the year?

They still need to be scrutinized, some will be better than others. I do want to point out that this system is not the only way I handicap. I just emphasize it because of it's consistency. It still takes some incite but if you pay attention it can pay off. Some things to consider. Alabama is 1-5 ATS, one would think they will improve on that.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

FWIW, my experience (real time and historical studies) is that fading top 5 teams from start of year often works well and doesn't hurt you too often. so it is generally good strategy. think there's been one really bad year I remember and some really good years..... Stanford was one exception to this but the effectiveness of fading other teams more than made up for it.

this isn't easily testable, but I think upstart teams having their coming out season are great to fade, like UCLA this season. must be identifiable before season though, not teams like TCU and the Mississippi's that have shot up the charts this season.