Week 7: Upping $ Per Unit

[ofred]

YTD: 24-25, - 5.28 units

It's been a fairly crappy season in college football, but I don't feel that I had too many plays that I would regret. For example, turnovers plagued Tennesse last week even though their defense played outstanding. Worley has played better this year, but a few of his turnovers have been absolutely devastating. Who would have thought that USC very strong pass D, which hadn't given up a TD all year, would fold in the last 4 minutes of their ASU game(giving up 3 TDs)? Against a backup QB. Anyways, I'm upping my amount per unit slightly in the premise that luck will even out, I have more time to research games, and that I actually have a lot of confidence that I'll make well thought selections. Winning is never guaranteed, and that's why we gamble.

UCF -3 (-109) One unit. Could have gotten a better number here but this will do. One factor here is that BYU's defense has been fairly atrocious while UCF's has been very good. BYU's defense gave up large passing stats to 2 struggling QBs and a backup in the past 2 weeks- USU's Garretson and the 2 QBs of Virginia. All 3 of them had career numbers in these two games. The other thing I like here is that BYU's read option/ veer option offense is difficult to master for a QB. Taysom Hill was finally perfecting it this year after struggling in it somewhat since 2012. Also, he is a different animal that their backup, Christian Stewart. Hill made a lot of plays improvising and bowling over defenders. Stewart has less mobility, and questionable accuracy. Also, he has not much experience running the offense at game speed. Practices can't give he or his teammates the proper timing needed for game time speed. Holman, the UCF QB has struggled too. He has a big arm, but tends to lack touch on the medium and longer passes. Still, he is a smart, outgoing leader who might have a big day against this BYU pass D. I also have a lot of admiration for Coach O'Leary's penchant for winning against teams with a bigger name. They defeated Baylor last year, beat Penn St, lost to South Carolina by 3 and beat highly ranked Louisville when they were undefeated. None of these games were at home, which makes it even more impressive. BYU has a few starters injured for this game, including LB Fua- who is one of their best defenders. I think BYU will suffer from the hangover of losing Hill and their realization that their dream season is toast.

 

[MotorMouth]

Gamble it up!

The less you bet the more you lose when you win.

With you on UCF tonite.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........BOL tonight, on UCF also..........indy

 

[ofred]

Should be able to pull the trigger on Wazzu getting the points tonight, but… I fear that Stanford's offense will finally get the points that they have been denied due to turnovers and penalties. Their offense is better than they have looked score-wise, and I worry that they'll grind down the Wazzu defense, get TOs on defense that will negate some WSU scoring, and really these 2 defenses couldn't be more an opposite of each other. I don't like that for a home team with 2 losses. I also think despite the 2 losses that Stanford might still be the best team of the PAC 12, and will be dangerous from here on out. On the other hand, if Hogan/ their O continue to drive the field, and then kill the drives consistently, they're going to have a couple of more losses. Besides, I like this game better:

Fresno -9.5 (-108) One unit. Seems too obvious, I know, but UNLV has nothing going for them here except home field. Fresno is dangerous in their no huddle, quick pass game due to the fact that UNLV's defense tackles so badly. They also give up over 6 yards per carry and I expect Fresno, with RB stud Marteze Waller, to use both options of pass and run effectively. But a better reason to bet against UNLV is that their offense is so banged up. They have a starting QB with an injured throwing arm, a backup QB (Sherry) who has lost the starting QB job 2 years in a row- and is at 31% compel. pct. this year, a starting RB who may not play due to a leg injury and will be limited if he does play, and some WRs who contribute that are also out with injuries. Their OL was supposed to be a strength, and it's not too bad, but they've given up 15 sacks, and are probably just suffering from terrible QB play. For UNLV to cover here, they'll need a performance far beyond any other they have shown this year. Fresno's stats look fairly poor, but when you look at HOW much more difficult their schedule has been than UNLV's, they are playing pretty well vs. MWC opponents. I'm not going to over think this one. Unless the Vegas fix is in, Fresno looks good.

 

[United]

Good luck fred

 

[ofred]

Baylor -8 (-108) One unit
Baylor -5.5 1H (-110) 2 units. Baylor has a an underrated defense, which I think will outperform TCU's D, even though TCU gets more recognition for it. TCU coming off an emotional victory over Oklahoma, and depending too much on QB Boykin. I say he can't repeat that kind of game again so soon on the road vs. a very tough defense. Baylor is just a very well rounded team, and their offense can get it going in a hurry at the start of games. Last week's was the exception.

 

[ofred]

Both of these are getting too many points to pass up. Also both have the offensive firepower to get a back door cover.

MTSU +24 (-105) One unit. MTSU has a very good offense which is always nice when getting this many points. Last year they dropped 50 on Marshall. I also think Marshall hasn't been challenged yet this year and may not be the blowout titan their scores see to indicate. MTSU has a nice QB, Austin Grammar, who passes at 71% and is a running threat, often making plays when his pass protection breaks down. This spread is likely this high because of the injuries to MTSU's OL, but I still think it will be difficult for Marshall to cover this since they haven't anyone with an offense- unless Old Dominion counts.

Idaho +24.5 (-105) One unit. Idaho is bad as usual, and beat up on the DL. But this is no physical mismatch here, and Georgia Southern has their own problems defensively. Idaho gets a lot of credit for hanging in there competitively each and every game for 4 quarters. Unlike past Idaho teams, they usually have a chance of winning in the 4th quarter. I really like GSU this year and have won betting with them, but this line doesn't give Idaho any credit for having a pulse. GSU also may pull in the horses early in the 2nd half if they have a big lead, while Idaho has a decent passing attack to get some late scores.

 

[ofred]

UCLA ML +125. 2units. Both of these teams have woeful OLs, and both QBs are using their escape skills far too often. And sometimes getting sacked far too often. These two are both coming off their 1st losses and face elimination from a bowl playoff spot with a loss here, not that either team belongs in the final 4. I think UCLA is more resilient when losing, while Oregon seems to recover badly from these types of surprising, somewhat devastating losses. Helfrich does not get the best from his players as Chip Kelly used to, and the Ducks are just flat too many times, in too many parts of every game. Mariota is a great QB, but there was talk this week about not exposing him to too many hits, which happened at the end of last year when he got injured. It will take away a key part of their offense, and sometimes it looks like the Ducks are becoming a pass first team. Oregon is still struggling with youth and inexperience both from its receivers and on its defense. UCLA is actually running the ball well, and has played a tough schedule so far. I think they outplayed Utah, pasted Arizona State, and have played much improved Memphis and Virginia. I'm playing the angle that Mora reaches his players here after a loss better than Helfirch will. Home field doesn't hurt either.

 

[ofred]

NC State -3 (-112) 2 units. This play is on the premise that BC has no real strength excerpt their running game, which is certainly not dynamic. BC's defense has also lost some key players to dismissal and injury. NC State is well coached and sees this game as the turning point of their season. I watched their loss to FSU and never felt they were overmatched until a few parts of the 4th quarter, when they looked a little physically drained. I think if NC State can key on Murphy's scrambling, they get a double digit win here.

 

[ofred]

Indiana +3.5 (110) One unit. This is my RLM game of the week. 65% of the bets on Iowa while the line moves from 6.5 to 3.5 and 3. Indiana shows up like they did last week or in beating Missouri, and they can win here. Even though their defense is breakable, their offense can keep up in the scoring with almost anybody. I also think Iowa's offense is usually dull and predictable, but this year even more so. Kirk Ferentz is going to be out-coached here by Kevin Wilson, who is smart and gets the most from his limited talent. Also, Tevin Coleman is one of those backs that can get the 1st downs, break off a big gain and gives Indiana a much better passing attack due to his explosiveness and the fact that defenses have to respect this each play. Going with the fast paced Indiana O vs. the plodding, predictable Iowa offense.

 

[ofred]

Memphis -7 (-120) One unit. Memphis could have won at UCLA and would be 4-1 right now. They also held Ole Miss to about 240 yards of offense going into the 4th quarter. Memphis will give Houston's QB O'Korn fits. O'Korn has regressed this year, making Houston a lot less effective in the passing game. His OL has been porous at times, giving up 11 sacks and many hurries and knockdowns. Houston's defense, which is usually kept afloat by a dynamic offense, is seemingly better, but has benefitted by playing some very inept offenses. But against BYU gave up over 500 yards. Memphis fans finally have something to cheer about and this home game will be big for them. I also like the Memphis run game advantage here vs. Houston's, which only seems to perform well vs. weak defensive teams- but plays poorly vs. better teams.

 

[ofred]

Auburn -2.5 (-115) 3 units. I'm going on this play saying that Auburn is the best team in the country even though they haven't always played like it. Their defense is much better than last year and I like Marshall's improvement as a passer and a leader. Auburn has played well on the road going back to last year. I'm also partial to their coaching and up tempo, hard to defend offense. Miss. St's Dak Prescott deserves all the attention he is getting, but hype usually precedes a downfall of some kind. MSU is almost better off under the radar than being in the big picture. Home team here under pressure.

Texas A&M -2.5 (-115) 3 units. Yes, Ole Miss has a great defense, and yes, A&M has been disappointing. But it will be really hard for Ole Miss to get over their victory over Alabama. If they had a history of winning consistently, or this was a pro game, then Ole Miss does well here. But these are college kids off the biggest win of their lives. A&M is going to play this game as if their season is on the line, which it is. They don't deserve to reach the final 4 if they win here(they'll lose somewhere else down the line and have some flaws), but they have almost as much talent as any SEC team, and their offense can keep them in every game. If Ole Miss doesn't regress a little here, then Hugh Freeze is coach of the year(although he's a much better recruiter than coach).

 

[ofred]

Bowling Green -1 (-105) One unit. This is my "schedule comparison" game of the week. Ohio could easily be 1-5 or 0-6, but have 3 victories against terrible opponents, actually being outplayed by Eastern Illinois- but winning a squeaker. Bowling Green has played a tougher schedule, and have the much more diverse, dynamic offense than Ohio. Ohio got dominated by CMU, and really have no answer at the QB position. Bowling Green's weak defense will not be tested here as they have when playing offenses that can actually move the ball. In fact, take out Melvin Gordon and his destruction of BG, and this team has played very well this year.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........on many of the same..........BOL with all your action today............indy

 

[ofred]

Have researched these during the AM. Large card, but here goes:

Florida -1 (-105) One unit. Both of these teams are similar on offense- poor passing games, some running game. LSU has really dropped defensively and the talent loss the past 2 years to the draft is finally showing up. But with 2 shaky QBs, I'll take the home team. Florida's season looked in poor shape after Alabama, but somehow they only have one loss, and this game gives them inspiration that their season is not lost.

Cal/ Washington - over 68 (-105) One unit. This started at 75 and moved down, but I'm thinking the oddsmakers got it right. Washington has a very iffy pass defense, while Cal's defense overall is pretty bad. Cal is a better version of Wazzu's offense, and right now is almost unstoppable. Weather looks great.

Colorado St -2.5 (-105) One unit. Nevada can't stop the run and Colorado St. has a great running game. And a pretty good passing game too. Nevada depends almost too much on their QB Fajardo, and he takes too many hits per game and preseason. Colorado St. will be able to get more stops here, and is actually a decent road team.

Miami,OH +14.5 (-105) One unit. Akron does have the great defense, but not always. Marshall easily scored on them, and Penn State moved the ball easily, but lost 3 TOs to Akron's zero. Miami has found their offense, and should be able to put some points on the board. Akron's offense has struggled a bit even against weaker defenses. Nice RLM here on Miami, OH.