Week 7 Stinkers

[Michelangelo]

31-22-1

Thursday

Seattle -6' -103 (@ SFo)
At first glance it looks like San Fran is better than everyone thought they would be, and Seattle, the SB losers, are struggling. I think that both of those things are true. But when San Fran has played good teams like Pit, Azo, and GBy they have gotten thumped each time. Seattle on the other hand just took back to back 3 and 4 point losses to undefeated teams. So they step down tonight while Frisco steps up again. Whoever loses this game goes to 0-2 in the Division. Gotta believe that the SeaHawks pull it together for this one. You should also know that the Seahawks have Colin Kaepernick's number. In 5 Kaepernick games against Seattle, San Fran has scored a total of 3 touchdowns. Repeat 3 touchdowns in 5 games.

I'll bite on the Thursday night fav.

 

[chonce]

On it -- my only decision is if I want to add a unit on the FH UNDER -- SF has the 31st ranked pass defense which is the one reason I am hesitating on the UNDER.

 

[Michelangelo]

Hope you caught that Under, chonce.

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Winner thurs with Seattle -6'

corrected record
32-22-1 +932

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Sunday Early:

Buffalo -3' +106 (@ Jax) London
The Buffs have been playing competetively against better competition. EJ Manuel is the first of three bench(ed) QBs taking their team's reigns today. He has something to prove against a weak Jax Defense.

 

[chonce]

You got a great price on that one.

 

[Michelangelo]

Yea, but I had to give that extra half point, chonce. Most books were down to -3. But Pinny (the book I use exclusively for posting lines) held the 3'. Went up to +109 before closing at +104.

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Add:

Detroit +1' +107 (vs Minny)
Minny got the first one 26-16 in Minny. Detroit's turn. Peterson has been downgraded to questionable (line value loss from +2' last night) and Bridgewater is in a sophomore slump with only 4 TDs and 5 turnovers in 5 NFL games. That's pretty crap production in today's NFL. So where will the Viking offense come from?

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Pittsburgh +3 +100 (@ KCy)
The second bench QB to take the field today is Landry Jones. Did anyone else notice the difference in the offense last week when Vick went out and Jones took the field? All of a sudden, one of the best receivers in the game, Antonio Brown, who had been all but hibernating with Vick at the controls, came alive again. Martavious Bryant had an 88 yarder for a TD. In three starts Michael Vick had 2 TDs and 1 pick. Landry Jones did better than that in three quarters. Look for an improved Steeler offense to join a tough Steel D and come out of Kansas City with a SU win today.

 

[Michelangelo]

Almost forgot.

Since 2001, Week 7:

62 Home Favs
65 Road Dogs
30 Home Dogs
31 Road Favorites

Pretty damned even for Week 7.

 

[Michelangelo]

Jacksonville D looking like the '85 Bears. Damn. Ryan is the most overrated coach in the NFL.

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Tennessee +5' -103 (vs Atl)
Mariotta's out. You would think that this is a bad thing. Since his Week 1 showdown with Jamis Winston, Mariota has 5 TDs and 9 turnovers. Mettenberger will be an upgrade. And it may surprise you that ahead of the Jets, Denver, and Seattle, the team who has allowed the fewest passing yards is Tennessee. Sandwiched between two Divisional games, Atlanta could get a sourmash surprise in the land of Jack Daniels.

 

[chonce]

I like Tennessee in this spot as well. I played two units on them. If they win they will still owe me 1.3 units from last week though.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

New Orleans +5 -107 (@ Indy)
Indy still licking their wounds from the Pats loss. New Orleans quietly getting it together. Dome to dome. No problemo.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Philly +3 -113 (@ Carolina)
6-2 straight up. That's Chip Kelly in spotlight games including a 45-21 beating of Carolina last year on Week 10 on Sunday night just like this. Will Carolina be motivated for revenge? Sure. But Philly needs the game more. And Philly has been playing better teams.

Here's the lowdown.

When Cam Newton is sacked 5 or more times he is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. When Cam Newton rushes fewer that 4 times he is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS.

On the flip side, when he rushes 10 or more times in a game, he is 13-3-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS (yes Carolina tied Cincy 37-37 last year).

So Philly needs to contain Cam. And get to him too. I think they will.

 

[Michelangelo]

Was anyone else pulling their hair out last night as Philly played from behind by running on virtually all 1st and 2nd downs? Throw the damned ball to set up the run. AND to get the first down drives you were not getting. Jeez.


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yest 2-4 -213
YTD 34-26-1 +719


Arizona -10 +104 (vs Balty)
I know that Baltimore has played the better competition and has been in every game. Their biggest loss was by 6 points at Denver. But I think that Arizona has one of the NFL's best teams, Offense, Defense, and Special Teams. I think that Bruce Arians is in the very top tier of NFL coaches. This is Arizona's chance to prove that they belong with the NFL's Big Guys for all the world to see. If they don't win big tonight they're coming off my short list of SB contenders.


And in case you were wondering.


Since 2001 Spotlight game Home Favs of -8 or higher are 2-2 ATS. Nothing to see there.


Good luck

 

[Greenbacks]

Same play.....Good luck!