Week 7 on the West Side

[Conan]

The MWC looks a lot safer than the Pac does so I will more than likely be back with a pick or maybe two in that conference. However for the time being, I'm just not sure what to say about Cal favored by a FG at home vs UW. I'm really not to sure what to say about any of the Pac lines this week, nothing too unusual about that... except for one of them, and that would be WSU+17 on the farm. 17 is stretching things a bit much with Halliday throwing for over 3000 yards this season through 6 weeks thus far on a collision course to throw for 6,000 yards this season (a former Mike Leach QB holds the current record) with Stanford's QB Hogan on a collision course to throw for just under 2300 yards for the season... (without a rushing game to rely on.)

WSU is ranked #5 in total offense (580 ypg) and #1 in passing (523 ypg) and #1 in total first downs at 169. Stanford is ranked #2 in scoring defense (8.6 ppg) #1 in total defense (232 ypg allowed) and #2 in passing defense (107 ypg allowed.) Something's gotta give there.

But the wildest of all stats to come out of the Pac through the first 6 weeks of the season is the Cal Bears tied for first place in the North Division... Who'd have thunk it?
​

 

[tsm123]

'Fill it with premium" Wsu just played two absolutely grueling games and now find themselves on the road
getting 17 (17?) against Stanford, the nations #2 pass defense.

Both teams off very demoralizing losses.

At what point do these young kids run out of gas?

I like Stanford - and under 54.

 

[pathologist]

Can Stanford score 17 on anyone? Shaw should be embarrassed with the way the offense keeps sliding

 

[tsm123]

If they do, this should be the week.
Wsu's defense was weak to begin with....
now they're exhausted.

 

[Conan]

Yeah could be but 2 TD's by Halliday which he could probably do in his sleep, and now Stanford needs 32 for a cover. I just think 17 points is too much lumber for the "trees" in any game they have played. Their offense hasn't shown much and it's not like Shaw to even ask for that much scoring. Putting up 24 on Wazzou and still holding them to one TD is a push with an ugly twinge to it... typically Stanford. If you can find a good deal -- buying a half point shouldn't be too hard to come away with especially if you know a book with 5¢ lines -- or less some days. The linemaker might have gotten this one right.

Knowing that Shaw often plays down to his competition and just enough to win are other factors I am relying on. Jeff
Geoff is another.

 

[Conan]

Sorry Conner Halliday didn't quite make the edit. Of course he is Leach's QB who I mentioned earlier in the last post not Cal's QB Jeff Geoff even though they are a bit hard to separate if you've seen them both play.

 

[tsm123]

I have to get away from the notion that there's an advantage to every game on the card. I mean some games do end in a push and others are just too close too call. My opinion is just that...an opinion. And why over analyze a game that I probably won't play anyway. Anyway, I'd like to see Halliday add to his stats so I hope Stanford wins 95 - 77 (I changed my mind on the total).

 

[thecruncher]

After last week the PAC scares me more than any other conference -- so many teams close to Hollywood but nobody read the script! lol. Agree on WSU and if I'm stepping into a big Golden Bear trap, so be it. The Huskies have struggled to a 4-1 record against the 4th easiest schedule in all of D1 football this year (by my stats).

 

[Conan]

'Fill it with premium" Wsu just played two absolutely grueling games and now find themselves on the road
getting 17 (17?) against Stanford, the nations #2 pass defense.

Both teams off very demoralizing losses.

At what point do these young kids run out of gas?

I like Stanford - and under 54.

Well there's one thing you can count on not happening this season... Stanford winning a 3rd consecutive Pac-12 title. Cal stands just as good a chance as the trees do. Of course many things could change over the next month, such as the Ducks and Mariota waking up especially with a couple more of their OL waking up all healed before too much time passes. If that should happen, many more things could clear up in a very confusing division thus far this year.

But this week it's time for someone to make a statement about who the alpha male will be in this conference... unless that changes in week or two or if the Cal Bears beat Stanford??? This year it could happen. Or possibly the Beavers get to the Ducks instead of coming up just short like they did in '13.

And don't forget the Zona's. It seems like both have been popping up when least expected. Come to think of it, not much has been settled since day one in the season other than the extreme depth and balance in the Pac may have knocked the conference right out of contention for a playoff berth. And it hasn't been about bad play. It's been largely brought on by a few emerging superstars on teams that weren't supposed to show up with much, not to forget about a few unfortunate injuries that turned things upside down for some.

 

[MoneyMiller]

Huskies+150 vs. CAL!
Seems very generous
Are u playing this game?

 

[KDawgg]

Huskies+150 vs. CAL!
Seems very generous
Are u playing this game?

Took the words right outta my mouth. I knew Cal was a high variance team this year that had a good chance to do well or terrible... but they still haven't gone up against a strong line on offense or defense really. I suspect Cal's Ol will have problems and I consider Wash a live dog.

 

[mudman]

GL my man. Really enjoy your take on the PAC 12 each week.....

 

[WinOne]

Took the words right outta my mouth. I knew Cal was a high variance team this year that had a good chance to do well or terrible... but they still haven't gone up against a strong line on offense or defense really. I suspect Cal's Ol will have problems and I consider Wash a live dog.

Ditto.

My take on Cal is that they remind me a lot like the Illini and UW crushed them. Now the kicker is UW has Oregon on deck and despite how bad Oregon looks, to UW, it's still Oregon and they may get caught looking ahead, even off a bye week. The UW front 7 is so disruptive though.

 

[NoCoke]

Heard the other day Chris Petersen has never lost a game after a regular-season bye week. Can't remember the exact number but I think it was around 13-0. He's at a different program now but just thought that was interesting.

 

[WinOne]

One that I am looking at is SC v Zona
I know what we'll get from Zona. I do find it interesting that the #10 team is a home dog this week. USC has failed to close the deal in two games other than Stanford and I think it was more Stanford and their poor QB play than USC playing stellar. Straight ahead down hill run team are perfect for the SC defense (see Fresno, Stan, Ore St). However they don't play well against spread teams due to their scheme and their lack of depth on defense (see BC, ASU). Last time I checked Zona runs a spread attack and their QB is getting more and more effective. Funny that he idolizes MMariota because he reminds me of Mariota from 2 years ago when he broke into the Oregon offense. I don't know how SC keeps up against the Zona spread.

 

[NoCoke]

One that I am looking at is SC v Zona
I know what we'll get from Zona. I do find it interesting that the #10 team is a home dog this week. USC has failed to close the deal in two games other than Stanford and I think it was more Stanford and their poor QB play than USC playing stellar. Straight ahead down hill run team are perfect for the SC defense (see Fresno, Stan, Ore St). However they don't play well against spread teams due to their scheme and their lack of depth on defense (see BC, ASU). Last time I checked Zona runs a spread attack and their QB is getting more and more effective. Funny that he idolizes MMariota because he reminds me of Mariota from 2 years ago when he broke into the Oregon offense. I don't know how SC keeps up against the Zona spread.

This is the exact reason why I'm on Arizona this week. I know they had guys out for BC but look at what their spread did to them. GL.

 

[WinOne]

This is the exact reason why I'm on Arizona this week. I know they had guys out for BC but look at what their spread did to them. GL.

Pointing heavily that way as well. Thing I don't like is that Ive heard the Zona QB on several interviews this week and I hope he does not get a big head. I might add that it's do or die for SC. They absolutely cannot afford to lose this game if they have any hopes of winning the South.

 

[Conan]

Yeah could be but 2 TD's by Halliday which he could probably do in his sleep, and now Stanford needs 32 for a cover. I just think 17 points is too much lumber for the "trees" in any game they have played. Their offense hasn't shown much and it's not like Shaw to even ask for that much scoring. Putting up 24 on Wazzou and still holding them to one TD is a push with an ugly twinge to it... typically Stanford. If you can find a good deal -- buying a half point shouldn't be too hard to come away with especially if you know a book with 5¢ lines -- or less some days. The linemaker might have gotten this one right.

Just a little curious if anyone found a half point and bought it?
Either way was the right way to go.

 

[dirtySOUTH+]

Hey Conan, always value your insight. I'll be at the Oregon UCLA game tomorrow, deciding on a side. Originally was thinking Oregon all day, but I've already been burned by them several times this season. Any thoughts?

 

[rickardodry]

conan,
i know you are the pac 10 guy
oregon/ucla two teams that are not right on offense right now. why do i see them going at each other all day and we get an over?
bad idea?