WEEK 7 NCAA PLAYS/LEANS/THOUGHTS .....got a case of the Mexicali Blues.........

[JackStraw420]

Is there anything a man don't stand to lose,
When the devil wants to take it all away?
Cherish well your thoughts, and keep a tight grip on your booze,
Cause thinkin' and drinkin' are all I have today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaIVUMDrN7A

I think some very apropo lyrics for a gambling forum. When you're down, can't pick a winner, keep chasing, keep betting, until it's gone, all of it. And of course, it's the devil's fault...right?

Thinkin' and drinkin' are all I have today.....that might be my motto for this Saturday. And hopefully I can fight off the urge to donk off my roll on some late night bullshit games!!


OK, enough on that for now. Here is my updated record since joining here a few weeks ago. Been enjoying posting here, sure beats across the street where it seems only a select few get attention, and it's mostly the drama filled threads that are the most popular, or the "locks" and "guarantees".

WEEK 6
NCAA 2 UNIT 3-1 (+3.8 UNITS)
NCAA 1 UNIT 1-2 (-1.2 UNITS)
NFL 2 UNIT 1-0 (+2.0 UNITS)

YTD (on posted plays on THIS forum)
NCAA 7-7 (+1.2 UNITS)
NFL 1-0 (+2.0 UNITS)

Will post some leans and thoughts on games that caught my eye so far, although need to give the card another up and down look before finalizing my official "lean" list. Although I do have two plays already.

:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

Tuesday night: Garbage game, passing for sure. Good luck trying to pick a winner here. I'm guessing most will be on Arky State, but who knows what you'll get.

Thursday night: Have to lean Kentucky at home catching a couple points here vs. an Auburn team that has been a major disappointment. Still have that mental block on Kentucky being good enough to win games like this though!!

In a Bluegrass State theme, also like Western Kentucky going against one of the worst Div1 teams this season, North Texas. Wow, never thought laying 32+ points on the road with a WKU team would be on my radar, but it has to be. Do I trust WKU defense? No. So, may just play it like I played Houston last week and roll with the TT OVER. Probably be in the lower 50's range, but definitely over 49 based on a 32.5 spread and 68 total.

Not sure on the UCLA-Stanford game. Cardinal has looked much better since their opening loss @ NW, and looks like Hogan is over that ankle injury. Both teams coming off of a bye, but had much different results in their last time out. UCLA got thumped at home by ASU, and Stanford ran all over Arizona. Might look at the over 55 here, and probably pass on the spread.

Friday night: 4 games this Friday, 3 of them have the road team favored. Not sure on Kiel's status for the Cincy-BYU game, but probably passing on that one regardless. That leaves the 3 road faves to take a hard look at.

Boise's been playing well, and lays ~10 @ Utah State. Since losing to BYU, Boise has ripped off 4 blowout wins in a row, the best of which was a 42 point win @ UVA. USU struggled vs. their two P12 opponents, but managed to not get blown out, and then beat up on two bad teams (Fresno on Col State). Boise will be a popular pick I think. I think I have to pass here, but might take a nice look at the under 63, as USU's D isn't horrible on paper, and Boise has shut the run down well this year.

Was on Tulane last week, and watched a lot of the first half. Man, they just aren't that good. Temple D-Line was all over them, and the 10 points they did get were directly because of Temple turnovers. Now a high powered offense comes into town, hard for me to think Houston won't put up some serious points. Again though, not sure how much I trust Houston D to shut them down, so might have to pass on laying over 17 points on the road. Will check out TT, and look closer here as the week goes.

Last game is two pretty poor teams, UNLV at Fresno, although between the two Fresno has to be considered much worse. Laying 6 points on the road with UNLV seems crazy though, this team is usually a dog every week, home OR away. lol. But Fresno is just getting smacked around every week, and UNLV is at least competitive somewhat, although they did get rolled by UCLA and lost by 21 @ Michigan (which really doesn't look horrible tbh). Fresno is giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground, which is UNLV's strongsuit on offense. Serious lean on the Rebs laying less than 7 here.

Will post Saturday's thoughts when I get a minute. Battling a cold, 2 jobs, 2 kids, 8 wives (ok one wife with the needs of 8), so it's a struggle finding time for this these days.

Two plays already in are:

Texas Tech -31

New Mexico -5.5

Will have thoughts on those as well. Both are 1 unit plays, that I may bump up to two if I get a favorable line move and/or just feel more confident as the week moves along.

:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

Added on other play already.

Iowa -2.5 1 unit - line moved from -1 and wanted to grab it now before it went to 3 or more. I doubt we see a complete blowout like Michigan put on NW, but I think Iowa D is good enough to slow down NW and keep the lead. Lean to the under 40 as well. I think Iowa is closer to the top of the B10 than they are to the middle, where I put NW, despite their solid start.

Here are some leans for Saturday.

Florida State -7 vs Louisville. Louisville is just not great. Not sure I trust Golson here, and might pass at 7, but giving it some thought.

Iowa-NW UN 40. Probably not playing this one, just wouldn't shock me to see both teams under 20.

WVU - Baylor UN 76. Don't know if I have the stones to play a Baylor UNDER, but I think this will be the best D they've faced this season. I don't see WVU stopping Baylor, I just think that's a tad too high of a number.

Pittsburgh +3.5. GT has not been impressive at all, and Pitt has good numbers against the run this year. I think they might be in a spot for the road win here.

Ball State -16. Would pretty much be a fade of GA ST here, they aren't very good. Ball St has dropped 3 in a row, but all to teams you'd expect them to lose to.

Bama -4. Hmmm.....how good is A&M? I think they are pretty good. I just think Bama is a TD better, even on the road.

Va Tech +6. Brewer might be back. This VT team is not great, but what has Miami done to impress anyone this year? Could be a close game. Would love 7 here, but doubt that is happening.

Nevada -7. Wyoming is a bottom feeder in the FBS. Hate to put my stock in an average team in Nevada, but they've played the tougher schedule, and have the better results. WYO is more than capable of dropping a home game by double digits. WYO's weakness on D is stopping the run, and Nevada definitely has a better rush attack than passing.

Wake - UNC UN 51. Wake's D has played decent and I just don't think UNC is a very good team.

BC - Clemson UN 36.5. BC's defense is the real deal, have to consider the under almost every game they play. Not to mention, their offense is bad and Clemson has a great D. Could be a 28-3 final. I guess lean to Clemson -15.5 too, but honestly worried they just don't explode and end up with a 17-20 type of total.

Arizona State +7. Was on Utah last week. They are good for sure, and hung on for a tough win. But considering how many turnovers they got, kind of surprising they only won by 6. Not sure exactly why, but my gut says this could be the week Utah gets a reality check. ASU is a decent team. Hung with A&M until late, and only blemish on their schedule is when USC lit them up. But most of that damage was done through the air, and Utah is more of a run first attack. I think this is a close one too, with ASU having a shot at the upset.

Of those, ASU, Temple and Nevada are my top picks and will likely play those. In fact, I just played Temple at -21 (-120). The more I thought about the others as I wrote those leans up, the more I feel like staying away.

 

[United]

Thanks for your thoughts on the games JS.

Opposite a couple of them and that should be good news for you.

 

[JackStraw420]

Plays so far...all 1 unit unless noted.

Texas Tech -31 @ Kansas - It won't be as bad as Baylor took it to KU, but I think TT scores enough to cover this. Beat UTEP by 49, beat Arky by 11, hung with TCU, and just did not have enough firepower (or defense) to slow Baylor down, but bounced back nice with a 35 point win vs ISU (who incidentally beat KU by 25 themselves). Don't like laying this many on the road, but don't see any reason why Tech won't score enough to cover this. Will likely be on TT OVER too.

New Mexico -5.5 vs Hawaii - 2 UNIT PLAY Hawaii hasn't scored a point on the mainland this year, granted all those games were vs. decent teams (Ohio ST, Wisky and Boise). New Mexico can and will run, and UH will have trouble stopping them. Meanwhile UH is only averaging 87 yards per game on the ground. Problem for them is their air attack isn't making up for it. Only managed 251 yards last week at home vs. a pretty bad SDSU team. Really like this one.

Iowa -2.5 @ NW - Like this matchup, and wanted to get it in before line moved higher.

Temple -21 vs UCF (-120) - UCF is really bad, and statistically they are even worse. Temple D should force a lot of short UCF drives, which will wear out their D eventually, and I trust PJ Walker to get them enough points to cover.

Will play ASU at 6.5 if it doesn't move, but holding out for 7. Also holding out hope that Nevada drops to 6.5 at some point. Keeping my eye on those two.

That's it for now.


Any feedback, thoughts, criticisms, or otherwise....always welcome here.

:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

Forgot one lean.

App State -11.5 @ UL-Monroe. Outside of their loss to Clemson, App State has had a good year, albeit vs. some crummy teams. Unfortunately for ULMonroe, I'd lump them in with those crummy teams.

 

[JackStraw420]

Thanks for your thoughts on the games JS.

Opposite a couple of them and that should be good news for you.

Ha, we'll see. My card is looking chalky so far, could be dangerous to lay points in that many plays.

BOL!

 

[mws]

BC - Clemson UN 36.5. BC's defense is the real deal, have to consider the under almost every game they play. Not to mention, their offense is bad and Clemson has a great D. Could be a 28-3 final. I guess lean to Clemson -15.5 too, but honestly worried they just don't explode and end up with a 17-20 type of total.

As a Clemson fan, I see it the same way. Initially thought 24-3 sounded about right, but BC's D may be better than I thought. It could be 17-3, or 12-0. Under is probably the safest play.

Anyway, 32 years ago today and 31 years ago today, I was in Hartford, Connecticut? Can you guess why?

 

[JackStraw420]

Gotta be for a Dead Show, right?

12 years ago today I was in a bar near Wrigley counting down the outs until the Cubs made the World Series. Then the 8th rolled around...........

Thanks for the feedback on Clemson. I have a future on them to win it all this year, so they've been on my radar more than usual.

 

[JackStraw420]

Adding the following plays, and adding on to some as well.

Thursday:

Western Kentucky TT OV 51.5 (-125) (1 unit) -- Juiced, but I like this number, so playing it. As with Houston last week, don't trust WKU on D to cover the huge spread on road, nor do I trust UNT to score enough to get it over. So, I'll stick with just this wager for tonight.

Considered dropping a unit on Kentucky if it got to +3 or more, but doesn't look like it will, so passing.

Friday:

UNLV -6.5 (2 unit) -- Fading a bad Fresno State team.

Still ponder a Houston play, but for now passing.

Saturday:

Nevada -6.5 (2 units) -- See above and put in Wyoming instead of Fresno.

New Mexico -5.5 (2 units) -- Write up above. Actually considering adding 1 unit to this one. My favorite play on my card.

Temple -21 (-120) (1 unit) -- Write up above. Will not add.

Iowa -2.5 (1 unit) -- Write up above. Will not add. Of course, line is back down to 1! Oh well.

Texas Tech -31 (1 unit) -- Write up above. Will not add.

Florida - LSU UNDER 46 (1 unit) -- Florida new QB, LSU good D, Florida really good D. I see a 20-14 game.


That's it for now. Here is my plan for the rest of my potential plays, including a couple I hadn't mentioned before.

Tulsa: If line goes to 14.5 or higher might play a unit. ECU is better, but Tulsa seems competent enough to hang around.

Miami OH: If line goes to 17 or higher might play. Home dog vs NIU team that has been a little inconsistent.

Ball State: Line has been dropping, not sure why. Ball State is far from great, but at home vs. bad Georgia State team. Will play if line falls below 14.

Arizona State: Still waiting for +7 before pulling trigger. Might anyway at +6.5 if it never moves. Might even go small on ML. Just got a feeling!

Wake Forest: Might hit it at +17.5, UNC isn't that great, are they? Like the under possibly too, just watching the line, been moving up a little.

App State: Was leaning on passing at 11.5 and now I see -13. Could change my mind, but I doubt it.

BC - Clemson UNDER: Still may play...not 100% sure.


Rest of the leans not listed in this post are likely out. Things can always change, but that's where I stand for now.

:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

WKU comes through! Glad I didn't lay the points and get backdoored. Always nice to start the week off with a winner............

Added one play.

Ball State -12.5 (1 unit) -- Hopefully they can contain GA St's passing attack enough to cover this one. I am sure BSU will get their points, GA State is bad. Not entirely sure why the line dropped, aside from $$ on GSU, but it was a lean at 15.5, so at 12.5 I will pull the trigger for a unit.

Also, not sure if anyone on this forum plays soccer, but leagues are back from Int'l Break, so one play for me today.

Belgium: Mouscron - Gent OV 2.5 (-125), to win half unit (soccer plays for me are usually smaller than football). Half unit plays are usually my half-time wagers in football, or any tailing/fading I might do, or last second action plays. I usually don't post those, so I don't tally them here. I'll keep my soccer record though, on posted plays.

:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

As a Clemson fan, I see it the same way. Initially thought 24-3 sounded about right, but BC's D may be better than I thought. It could be 17-3, or 12-0. Under is probably the safest play.

Anyway, 32 years ago today and 31 years ago today, I was in Hartford, Connecticut? Can you guess why?

Hey, check this out. Yesterday on my way home from work this was on The Grateful Dead Channel for "Today in GD History".

 

[JackStraw420]

UNLV was a let down last night. They had several chances to put that cover away and let Fresno hang around, and then BAM, don't even get the W. Serves me right for wagering on crappy teams!

One soccer play today in England Championship League. Reading -1 (-114). That's the current 5 dimes lines. I also have a small play on -1.5 (+145).

Reading -1 (-110) (0.5 unit) (I am just using 110 for record keeping ease)
Reading -1.5 (+145) (0.5 unit risked)

Reading are at home vs. Charlton. Reading are home, and in good form. Been near the top of the table and should contend for a promotion spot this year. Charlton are not in good form and will probably be a middle of the road team at best.

 

[JackStraw420]

Added a couple wagers, and still monitoring a few lines. Week to date, 1-1 down 1.2 units (NCAA football only). Additions below.

Ole Miss -10.5 (2 units) -- added this one. Besides getting thumped by Florida, a pretty damn good year so far, granted against mostly shit teams, but still. Memphis D is horrible, and Ole Miss should be able to move up and down the field on them. I think this one is easier than it looks. Memphis is a nice little team and they'll make some noise in-league, but I just don't think they have it in them to hang in this spot. Memphis is only about 90 miles from Ole Miss too, so Rebs fans should travel well. If that sort of thing concerns you.

Ole Miss TT OV 41.5 (-115) (1 unit) -- see above

Toledo -29 (1 unit) -- EMU is another horribly defensive team. Looked at Toledo TT, but settled on the line. Toledo is a decent team, big win at Arky earlier, who as it turns out isn't THAT bad afterall. I could sit here all day and give you reasons to take Toledo, they're the obvious choice. Hey, more chalk on the card...what could go wrong!

ASU ML (+180) (risking 0.5 unit) -- Line did not move in my favor, and now is down to 5.5 at my book. Will monitor and still play ATS at 6.5 or higher. If not, I will sit back and root for the upset.

 

[JackStraw420]

VERY CHALKY CARD!! Hate that, but I do play dogs a lot, just so happens this week I am not. I play the lines I think can be beat. Don't expect to win them all, but hopefully will come out ahead.

Here is the full card currently.

Ole Miss -10.5 (2 units)

Ole Miss TT OV 41.5 (-115) (1 unit)

Texas Tech -31 (1 unit)

Iowa -2.5 (1 unit)

Toledo -29 (1 unit)

Ball State -12.5 (1 unit)

Nevada -6.5 (2 units)

Florida-LSU UN 46 (1 unit)

New Mexico -5.5 (2 units)

Temple -21 (-120) (1 unit)

Arizona State ML (+180) (1/2 unit risked, to win 0.9 unit)



Hope everyone has a great Saturday. This is one of the first Saturday's I've had off since about late July. What to do, what to do? Probably hammer back some rum, watch some football and then the Cubs!! It's not a matter of IF I will start drinking, it's a matter of when. Let's see if I can hold out until the afternoon games.


:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

Got absolutely THROTTLED last Saturday, to the tune of about 12 units. Horrible effort. Not hiding from it, but definitely taking the week off posting, and playing minimal games.

BOL everyone.........................:smoking: