Week 7: Early Lines

[ofred]

Washington -1.5 The Huskies have years of pay back and a few extra days of rest. Don't EVEN think they'll have a letdown after USC. Petersen will have them ready.
(big play)

Notre Dame -4 USC out-physicaled by Stanford and UW, and ND will do the same. Also a payback after last year's embarrassment. With the Sark drama, the OC taking over, good chance USC is a little out of sorts.

More write-up coming later.

 

[gold64]

ND's 4 will be higher as we get to Gametime. I'm laying the -4 now

 

[ofred]

Since Sunday, UW line has been pretty much at 1.5, while ND has climbed to 5.5.

Washington: Maybe the Utah beating of the Ducks IS where Oregon is at? I'm thinking the answer is close to yes. Nationally, the Oregon Ducks are so synonymous with winning and scoring at will, that people can't believe they've fallen so far. And a good 2nd half vs. Colorado doesn't erase that fact. But if you've seen them play, as I said last week, it's now the Royce Freeman Show and not much else.

Wazzu gave up a ton of yards on the ground, but the awful Ducks' passing game and pass blocking negated some of that. Even if Freeman is getting 8-9 yards a clip, there are going to be necessary passing downs. And the ball aint getting there. It's not just the absence of Marshall, Carrington, Tyner and others. Mariota was born to lead the fast-paced Oregon offense, and he came through hundreds of times in 3rd down and every other down when he had to pass. His timing and leadership were nearly impeccable. Lockie and the broken-fingered Adams just will never be anywhere near that. And while the Cougs have a poor run defense, very poor, UW will be tougher to run against. Especially at home with an amped-up crowd and sideline and defense. The Husky pass rush, if you saw their USC and Cal games, make QBs very uncomfortable in the pocket. This plays to UO's weakness. Lockie already looks nervous there. UW's pass rush won't help his cause. Side note: How many teams lose a game where they have 410 yards on the ground? None, I'm guessing.

The Ducks' defense has its moments, as they did against WSU, but overall it's a mess. The Cougs hit their high yardage for the year vs. OU, passing and running. 123 yards rushing for a team that only got 14 yards running vs. Cal, and 75 yards vs. stinking Wyoming. Playing 5' 9" slot receiver Charles Nelson at safety says it all (although he looked pretty good in place of the bums that usually look lost out there). Poor tackling, missed assignments, BIG plays, and penalties make DC Don Pellum the pinata of the week.

I'm glad the Huskies got a few days to come down off their USC win, and refocus on UO. The Ducks have pounded them the past 3 years, and this alone is enough motivation for the Huskies that were there. I have a lot faith that Petersen will have them prepared. He is a coach that keeps his team from getting to high or low after a win/ loss. I also like how Petersen works with QBs and offenses, which the Huskies are a work in progress. And even though Browning is a freshman, he is poised and is a natural passer. Petersen is not expecting too much, but vs. the Oregon D, he likely will have a decent game. The Duck players have lost their confidence, their swagger, and don't know how to adjust or deal with losing like this. I can see Oregon winning, but barely. I can see UW winning, but possibly winning big in a long overdue, emotional, payback game at home.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Since Sunday, UW line has been pretty much at 1.5, while ND has climbed to 5.5.

Washington: Maybe the Utah beating of the Ducks IS where Oregon is at? I'm thinking the answer is close to yes. Nationally, the Oregon Ducks are so synonymous with winning and scoring at will, that people can't believe they've fallen so far. And a good 2nd half vs. Colorado doesn't erase that fact. But if you've seen them play, as I said last week, it's now the Royce Freeman Show and not much else.

Wazzu gave up a ton of yards on the ground, but the awful Ducks' passing game and pass blocking negated some of that. Even if Freeman is getting 8-9 yards a clip, there are going to be necessary passing downs. And the ball aint getting there. It's not just the absence of Marshall, Carrington, Tyner and others. Mariota was born to lead the fast-paced Oregon offense, and he came through hundreds of times in 3rd down and every other down when he had to pass. His timing and leadership were nearly impeccable. Lockie and the broken-fingered Adams just will never be anywhere near that. And while the Cougs have a poor run defense, very poor, UW will be tougher to run against. Especially at home with an amped-up crowd and sideline and defense. The Husky pass rush, if you saw their USC and Cal games, make QBs very uncomfortable in the pocket. This plays to UO's weakness. Lockie already looks nervous there. UW's pass rush won't help his cause. Side note: How many teams lose a game where they have 410 yards on the ground? None, I'm guessing.

The Ducks' defense has its moments, as they did against WSU, but overall it's a mess. The Cougs hit their high yardage for the year vs. OU, passing and running. 123 yards rushing for a team that only got 14 yards running vs. Cal, and 75 yards vs. stinking Wyoming. Playing 5' 9" slot receiver Charles Nelson at safety says it all (although he looked pretty good in place of the bums that usually look lost out there). Poor tackling, missed assignments, BIG plays, and penalties make DC Don Pellum the pinata of the week.

I'm glad the Huskies got a few days to come down off their USC win, and refocus on UO. The Ducks have pounded them the past 3 years, and this alone is enough motivation for the Huskies that were there. I have a lot faith that Petersen will have them prepared. He is a coach that keeps his team from getting to high or low after a win/ loss. I also like how Petersen works with QBs and offenses, which the Huskies are a work in progress. And even though Browning is a freshman, he is poised and is a natural passer. Petersen is not expecting too much, but vs. the Oregon D, he likely will have a decent game. The Duck players have lost their confidence, their swagger, and don't know how to adjust or deal with losing like this. I can see Oregon winning, but barely. I can see UW winning, but possibly winning big in a long overdue, emotional, payback game at home.

Couldnt by have said any of this better myself. I 100% concur. This is going to be a tumultuous season at best and I'm expecting Scott frost and pellum to both be gone after the season.

Side notes here: Charles Nelson didn't just look ok, in my opinion he looked damn good playing safety. Watching him react to plays was instinctual and he was lightning quick to the ball. On top of that he laid some serious hat for a dude his size. He needs to be adoree Jackson from USC, play him mainly on defense and use him as an occasional weapon on offense. He's better suited on defense now because he's likely the best DB they have.

Early reports indicate vernon Adams will start. Thank god. Not that I expect him to light it up, but more because I just can't take watching lockie or Allie play anymore. Vernon surely won't be in rhythm because he's been out for a while but he's the only passing option they have since they won't play mahalack. He should allow Oregon some vertical passing game but the husky defense is very good. I can only hope the freshman QB makes a couple of bonehead plays and Oregon wins by a fg.

do you have any insight on why mahalack has never taken a snap for them yet?? I've talked to everyone I know close to the program or who lives in Eugene and no one has an answer. Some people are guessing it's because he's going to transfer since he didn't make the three deep and now the coaches won't play him.... Kind of baffles me considering out of high school he was the perfect fit for the ducks as a QB. Lanky mobile QB that's pretty fast and had a good arm. Watched him play in the all American game two years ago and he looked very good. I was high on him for sure

 

[ofred]

Notre Dame: First let's give the USC positives…
1) They are getting out of town, away from the circus, and that's probably a good thing.
2) They are athletic and speedy.

But, that being said, I don't like USC here even if it's just football we're talking. Their OL has been getting pushed around, and they especially looked bad vs. UW when C Max Tuerk went out. Tuerk is rated the best center nationally for the NFL draft in 2016. He is their best lineman, their most experienced, and a leader.(Tuerk and a starting DL are both out this week) And I think ND can bring the heat as well as UW did, if not better. I also think USC's DL has been pushed around this year at times. Teams can run on them and this is where ND has a big advantage, having a very good OL - while Washington's is young, with a true freshman QB and a weaker running attack than ND.

We all know ND loses concentration on the road at times. But at home here, after Navy and no huge game up right away, I think they'll be on their game. USC thrashed them last year when ND was beaten down by injuries. This ND team looks much better and more complete. After Clemson caught them napping for 14 quick ones in the first 5 minutes, I though ND clearly outplayed them, holding Clemson to about 190 yards the rest of the way. QB Kizer looked like the best player on the ND offense at times. He is nimble in the pocket, poised under pressure and improving quickly. ND has the OL and skill players to make this a rout IF they don't lose focus as they are sometimes prone to do. You also have to love CJ Prosise, who can break arm tackles while being very elusive.

As the World Turns in SoCal, today's firing is another indication of how undisciplined this program is. Sark has been drunk before, maybe more than a few times, his players even notice(on Sunday he might have been tipping the bottle AT practice), his lackeys/ coaches cover up for him, he gets a leave one day, fired the next. Pat Haden should be fired for handling this so poorly. It's like Kiffin, Part 2. Now that Sark's gone, who is going to constantly make excuses for DC Wilcox? The players have to be wondering what's next. After a unexpected loss, all of this drama, and now a cross country trip playing a very tough rival that wants to kick their ass, I have to think USC will be the one to lose focus. You could see them making the same mistakes and making the same penalties vs. UW as they did earlier in the season.

 

[ofred]

Couldnt by have said any of this better myself. I 100% concur. This is going to be a tumultuous season at best and I'm expecting Scott frost and pellum to both be gone after the season.

Side notes here: Charles Nelson didn't just look ok, in my opinion he looked damn good playing safety. Watching him react to plays was instinctual and he was lightning quick to the ball. On top of that he laid some serious hat for a dude his size. He needs to be adoree Jackson from USC, play him mainly on defense and use him as an occasional weapon on offense. He's better suited on defense now because he's likely the best DB they have.

Early reports indicate vernon Adams will start. Thank god. Not that I expect him to light it up, but more because I just can't take watching lockie or Allie play anymore. Vernon surely won't be in rhythm because he's been out for a while but he's the only passing option they have since they won't play mahalack. He should allow Oregon some vertical passing game but the husky defense is very good. I can only hope the freshman QB makes a couple of bonehead plays and Oregon wins by a fg.

do you have any insight on why mahalack has never taken a snap for them yet?? I've talked to everyone I know close to the program or who lives in Eugene and no one has an answer. Some people are guessing it's because he's going to transfer since he didn't make the three deep and now the coaches won't play him.... Kind of baffles me considering out of high school he was the perfect fit for the ducks as a QB. Lanky mobile QB that's pretty fast and had a good arm. Watched him play in the all American game two years ago and he looked very good. I was high on him for sure

I don't have much insight on Mahalack, but I think his redshirt year was sort of a bust. Even Helfrich admitted that they didn't prepare him well. And I think this is the spin of a bad situation. Getting Vernon Adams was a great move. Without the broken finger, he would have NOT been Mariota, but he would have been a huge improvement over what we are seeing. Even if he plays vs. UW, I don't think his finger will be completely healed OR that he will be in synch with the Duck offense. I just think this Oregon team is not adjusting well to losing, while the Huskies are amped up on their recent success.

 

[ofred]

WKU -32
WKU -19 (1H) I lost my large spread game last week with Ohio St. My 2nd choice(Baylor) covered which caused a Homer Simpson "D'oh" with a smack to my head. And I know that 30 point spreads on the road ATS must be usually a poor bet. But...

* North Texas is a very bad FCS team. Yes, FCS, which is where they belong. Portland State, was ranked about 25 in the FCS and they're decent. But they demolished NT. You would have thought it was one of those 5 turnover games where PSU got a bunch of easy scores. There was only one by NT. PSU dominated them on the OL and DL, and ran at will. They even passed at will, which is not PSU's strength. NT also lost their defensive leader and best player to injury, DB Kenny Buyers.

* Fans of NT claim that the players seem to quit after getting down a few scores. "Quitting" may not be it, but being severely discouraged could be. An indication of a really, really bad team is one that has a dreadful defense and completely incompetent QB play. NT has both. If you've ever played football, you might know how it feels when you sense that your team can't move the ball offensively AND give up huge plays defensively. I think the NT players know that even in garbage time that they can't score or stop the other team's offense.

* WKU is heating up. They even play some defense this year. This is one reason I love this play. Last year they had to outscore everyone. This year they get some stops, and with NT it'll be easier than a real team. WKU, with a win, could slip into the rankings. They also know that there's a very good chance they'll get a 2nd loss next week vs. LSU. I'm glad they'll have a few extra days of prep for LSU, which will likely prevent a look-ahead.

* The crowd should be interesting. The NT fans have taken to first half booing, which can't help their teams efforts. Small crowd, many there to see just how good this WKU offense is.

Risky play perhaps, but these are 2 teams that are going in different directions in a big way. NT is REALLY bad. Watch them Thursday, you'll see...

 

[ofred]

Forgot to mention NT coaching change, and QB change. This QB has been tried before, a couple of times, and was 3rd string on an awful team. Former WKU transfer, although Demarcus Smith has transferred about 3-4 times, been academically ineligible twice, but he is the x factor. Coaching change, in my mid, plays little in this.

 

[ofred]

Florida +10 (-120) Getting 10 for the arguably best defense in the nation is a solid play. I think this line begins to drop from here. (Write-up later)

 

[ofred]

Florida: The best defense vs. the player in the country? LSU CAN lose at home. It happened twice last year. And they have plenty of non-covers at home too. With 10 points and a defense that challenges itself every week, that has incredible speed and a nose for the ball, I think they can make LSU one dimensional on offense. Fournette's lead blocker, FB JD Moore, is out. Fournette will get his big gains at times, but I think QB Harris will NOT have a day like he did last week vs. a pitiful SC defense. Florida will rally around QB Treon Harris, and know they'll have to play "up" to make up for the loss of their starting QB. Sometimes known as the injury factor, it causes players to up their game to make up for a key player that's missing.

LSU has not really been tested much this year. Other than a somewhat rebuilding MSU team, who have they played? Their defense is definitely untested. McElwain and OC Nussmeier are both good offensive minds and will keep his offense competitive throughout this game. This play says that Florida has a reasonable chance to win this game, and 10 points is a lot to give this hungry 6-0 Florida team.

 

[ofred]

Florida +10 (-120) Getting 10 for the arguably best defense in the nation is a solid play. I think this line begins to drop from here. (Write-up later)

This one got slammed at +10 and +9.5 since yesterday. Now at 7.5.

 

[thecruncher]

Good work, Fred.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........great write ups, very informative...........BOL with your action this week end.............indy

 

[ofred]

WKU -32
WKU -19 (1H) I lost my large spread game last week with Ohio St. My 2nd choice(Baylor) covered which caused a Homer Simpson "D'oh" with a smack to my head. And I know that 30 point spreads on the road ATS must be usually a poor bet. But...

* North Texas is a very bad FCS team. Yes, FCS, which is where they belong. Portland State, was ranked about 25 in the FCS and they're decent. But they demolished NT. You would have thought it was one of those 5 turnover games where PSU got a bunch of easy scores. There was only one by NT. PSU dominated them on the OL and DL, and ran at will. They even passed at will, which is not PSU's strength. NT also lost their defensive leader and best player to injury, DB Kenny Buyers.

* Fans of NT claim that the players seem to quit after getting down a few scores. "Quitting" may not be it, but being severely discouraged could be. An indication of a really, really bad team is one that has a dreadful defense and completely incompetent QB play. NT has both. If you've ever played football, you might know how it feels when you sense that your team can't move the ball offensively AND give up huge plays defensively. I think the NT players know that even in garbage time that they can't score or stop the other team's offense.

* WKU is heating up. They even play some defense this year. This is one reason I love this play. Last year they had to outscore everyone. This year they get some stops, and with NT it'll be easier than a real team. WKU, with a win, could slip into the rankings. They also know that there's a very good chance they'll get a 2nd loss next week vs. LSU. I'm glad they'll have a few extra days of prep for LSU, which will likely prevent a look-ahead.

* The crowd should be interesting. The NT fans have taken to first half booing, which can't help their teams efforts. Small crowd, many there to see just how good this WKU offense is.

Risky play perhaps, but these are 2 teams that are going in different directions in a big way. NT is REALLY bad. Watch them Thursday, you'll see...

I hope you got the 19 on the 1H. That last play was just unbelievable.

 

[ofred]

WKU 1-1 Thursday, but damn those back door covers. Like SMU the week before, just too many points.

Have made some $$ going against Oregon State and taking the points with Wazzu, but this week I just can't pull the trigger. Probably because the Cougs have a way of keeping even the worst teams "in" the game…or maybe they seem to find crazy ways to lose (a "coug it").

 

[ofred]

My 5 earlier plays are my larger ones. This one is smaller:

Cinn. +7 (-125) BYU has been playing week after week, without a bye, while UC comes off a bye here. BYU is just not that impressive anymore. They no longer have the dominant defense, their running game is weaker due to injuries, and if Mangum's hamstring is still tight, than his mobility is less. BYU still has the imposing OL and I do expect them to run effectively at times. But UC's defense is well rested, and was fairly effective vs. both Miami and Temple. UC out gained Temple by about 250 yards, but Kiel's 4 int. were the difference.

I do like that UC has 2 very good QBs, a solid OL and the skill players that can give BYU's defense problems with speed and elusiveness. ECU put up 518 yards on them, and I think we'll see the same here. BYU has had some amazing finishes, but they have also looked pedestrian vs. UConn and Michigan. Without those 2 miracle wins, they're 2-4. Tommy Tuberville has an extra week to prepare while BYU has a short week to prepare.

 

[ofred]

Ole Miss -10 (-120) Too much attention paid to Paxton Lynch. Yes, he has been great vs. weaker defenses than he'll see Saturday. But at least Ole Miss has the defensive speed that can handle the Memphis offense. And the Memphis defense definitely does NOT have the speed to handle the Ole MIss offense. Too much of the Paxton Lynch media hype makes this 10 a bargain, I think. Ole Miss is also better off on the road, away from the harping critics at home, and the distractions of fans and the local media. The key to this game IS that Ole MIss has been taking their lumps, and that they really need a good gam ego get them out of their funk. With Memphis being 5-0 so much the better. But the Memphis defense is inexperienced and un-athletic. They have even given up some decent yardage to offensive slugs like like USF and Kansas.

 

[ofred]

Besides Memphis likely leaving the ranks of the undefeated:

Michigan -7. Finally, the spread is where a Michigan bettor wants it. MSU has been struggling all through the season because they are and have been overrated. Just like Paxton Lynch can't save Memphis, Connor Cook can't save MSU from all of their issues: injuries, the loss of offensive skill players, loss of DC Arduzzi, pass rush on Connor Cook, and most of all, their defense is mediocre. I think Harbaugh has his team in a very focused "zone" right now, and whether it's special teams or offense or defense, they are taking on his competitive personality. I think Michigan will rise to ANOTHER challenge going after Connor Cook. Personally, I like these games in where the QB, or a star player, gets so much publicity (often well deserved) that their value is overinflated in the line.

Both this and the Ole Miss game are fairly large plays: Wash, ND, Florida, WKU (1H), WKU, and these 2.

 

[Lvtexholdm]

I love both big plays! Ole Miss will keep scoring and Mich will flex their muscles. Both opposing defenses are vulnerable to the offensive styles of the Rebels & Wolverines.

BOL TEX

 

[ofred]

Some smaller plays:

Northwestern +1.5. Iowa missing both starting OTs. Besides it's hard going undefeated when you're a team like Iowa. They have proven they can win close games, but on the road here vs. a good NW defense, I think they finally slip up. NW is not nearly as bad as they looked last week. Michigan took the early momentum and just took away NW's confidence early.

La. Tech +14 (-120) MSU has struggled offensively against even the worst teams. La. Tech has a dynamic offense and I think MSU looks ahead to a grueling SEC schedule resuming next week. MSU just looks SO different this year- as in reloading.

USF/ UConn- under 45. USF is finally showing a pulse. UConn is a plodding offense, but a solid defense. They can shut down the USF offense here at home. I think UConn and USF both feel like this season they are a bit rejuvenated. Both have plenty of defensive athleticism, and expect their defenses to keep them in every game.