K-Boom,
I like your Mid Tenn St play.
Many (most?) bettors will likely look at this game and say, "4-1 vs 1-4, SU and ATS, and I'm getting 3 points with the 4-1 team??!! I'll take it!"
But books don't stay in business by paying most bettors.
I'm not saying it's a trap line (there's no such thing), I'm saying bettors should dig deeper than just a quick look at a team's record.
For example - SOS. When looking at records it's beneficial to factor in Strength of Schedule (but with a nod to the fact that though a team with a winning record may have played a weaker schedule they can, after all, only play the teams on their schedule.)
SOS is relative but with the caveat that had they played better teams they may have beaten them, too.
Or not.
But looking at this game I see SOS indicators that are revealing for BOTH teams.
While Jax St is 4-1, here's who they've faced:
S Houston 0-4
E Mich 2-3
Coastal 2-3
E Tenn St FCS
UTEP 1-5
Not a single team with a winning record. A combined 5-15 on FBS opponents. Not exactly striking fear in my heart.
Now let's look at their opponent's opponents: (opponent's opponents? Solid alliteration right there.)
W Kent 3-2
Col St 1-2
Murray St FCS
Mizoo 5-0
Alabama 4-1
Three of the four teams they've faced have a winning record, a combined 13-5 (excluding FCS, including powerhouses Alabama and Missouri.)
We have a 4-1 team beating weak losers, and a 1-4 team losing to strong winners. Something to think about when handicapping this one.
I'm interested in seeing how Jax St - and the other FCS teams that have taken a step up in competition by joining the FBS this year - perform as the season progresses. Will they wilt to teams with stronger programs and better athletes/recruits? Will team depth/bench strength become a factor bettors can use as we enter the latter part of the schedule?
Bottom line, Mid Ten St needs a win tonight if they are going to have a realistic shot at getting a bowl game.
At home, in a nationally televised game, in what I see as a matchup that is closer than their records indicate, I like them for the win here.
In fact, though I meant to just drop in with a quick, short, "I like your Mid Tenn St bet - good luck to you tonight" I ended up publishing a full game analysis/soliliquoy that's more in depth than the writeup I actually made on my own post about taking the over tonight - and have talked myself into a little action on MTS, too.
Shorter version - Good luck with your play tonight.
