week 6 vegas vs my ratings, stats, systems, info etc.

[w365]

statistical overview of week 6:


OAK/NOR
Oakland defense is much better than Oakland offense so far this season but New Orleans offense is stil much better than Oakland's defense, as long as they limit their mistakes. Oakland defense is better against the pass than against the run and once again, New Orleans passing offense is much better than Oakland's passing defense, as long as they limit their mistakes. Offensivelly, Oakland is better on the ground but their main rushers are banged up. New Orleans is not a great defensive team but if they are improving against the run (see last weeks game vs Minnesota). Statistical edge goes to New Orleans.

BAL/IND
Surprisingly, Baltimore is good both offensively and defensively, with a little bit better job on defense. The Colts struggle both offensively and defensively and surprisingly they've struggled more with their passing game offensively, and not surprisingly at all, they struggle more against the run. Both things go in Baltimore's favour as they are better on the ground offensively and in the air when it comes to defense. Statistical edge goes to Baltimore and no wonder why this line is so low. Looks like the Colts lost their mojo and the respect they had in Vegas.

CIN/NYJ
Regardless what many experts will say, Cincinnati is stil average both offensively and defensively despite their 0-5 record. They take what their opponents give them. Not more, not less. Too bad their starting QB is banged up and probably out for this game as the Jets give more thru the air. This is something C.Palmer would probably be able to exploit if playing. Defensively they are better against the pass. The Jets are doing much better job on offense then on defense and especially with the passing game (Favre factor), however their overall passing stats are not that good and the passing defense is Cincinnati's strength. If C.Palmer plays, the statistical edge goes to Cncinnati. If not, the edge is on NYJ side.

CAR/TB
Carolina is all about defense and J.Delhomme. Tampa Bay is all about defense and their rushing offense. Carolina is using their running game a lot but they are not consistent. Tampa has a rushing defense that can prevent that Carolina rushing offense from turning the corner. Tampa Bay is using their pasing offense a lot as well, with no significant success and Carolina has a passing defense that can prevent Tampa from turning the corner with their passing game. There is no real statistical edge for either team in this game and home field advantage and strength of schedule could decide the winner. Tampa Bay's passing defense played against teams that average 7.3 PYPA and that's exactly what Carolina averages and TB did a very good job YTD. Carolina's rushing defense played against teams that average only 4.4 YPC and they did a solid job against them, but Tampa Bay averages almost a yard more per carry (5.3). TB has two QB's that are pretty even in my book and we stil don't know which one will start. I don't think it will make a difference given their offensive style.


DET/MIN
Detroit is not doing anything right. They struggle both offensively and defensively. The only bright spot for them is surprisingly their rushing offense in yards per carry, but too bad, they don't use it nearly enough and Minnesota is one of the best, if not the best team against the run. And how can they use the run when they trail 21-0 in the first half game after game. Minnesota offense is taking what you give them, and their defense is good as expected. Detroit has a very bad passing defense and even Frerotte could take advantage of that. And A.Peterson is long overdue for a big game. Statistical edge goes to Minnesota.

 

[w365]

CHI/ATL
Chicago is doing a solid job both offensively and defensively but their ground game has to improve both offensively and defensively.Not sure that is going to happen on the road, with ground game being Atlanta's strong point. Atlanta is averaging a lot more in offensive YPC than what Chicago has seen so far and their defense has seen better rushing teams than Chicago. Atlanta struggles with their passing game overall, but these stats have been a lot better at home, against, I have to admit, defenses that are not even close to Chicago's D. Overall, I don't see any statistical edge for either team that is huge. The home field advantage could be crucial in this game.

MIA/HOU
Miami is all about defense right now and their offense is taking what the opponents are giving them. Too bad for Houston, as their defense gives up too much. Houston is obviously all about offense and the good thing is, their offense is stil good enough, both thru the air and on the ground to do some serious dammage to this Miami defense. Regardless Miami's great defensive stats, I belive that there is no big statistical edge for either team here. And once again, the home field advantage could be huge.

STL/WAS
You gotta feel sorry for the Rams. They simply don't have the talent they need to stay in the games in the second half. It is uselless talikng about stats here as Washington is dominant at whatever stat you look at. As long as they take this Rams team seriously, they should win.

JAC/DEN
Jacksonville is as average as they come so far this season. Their offense takes what the opponent defenses give away, and the opponnet offenses take what Jacksonville defense gives up. Quite opposite to this Denver team that will take more than given to, and give more than asked for. Both offense should be able to exploit the opponent defense and I'm not surprised to see such a high total. The home field advantage could be the deciding factor. Or better yet, the last team with the ball could win the game. No statistical edge whatsoever.

PHI/SF
When I look at these two teams' stats, I can see that both teams are doing a much better job defensively. The question is, which offense will have the better day. Hard to believe it will be Philladelphia, with their best offensive player out. Hard to believe it will be San Francisco that is struggling both on the ground and in the air. No statistical edge whatsoever.

 

[w365]

DAL/ARI
Both teams are very good offensively and rather average defensively. The difference here could be the Dallas' ability to use both run and pass offensively while Arizona depends too much on their passing game. Simply put, the Cowboys have more offensive weapons. Another thing that is worth noticing is the fact that Dallas D has been able to step up on the road. Looks like they only care about scoring at home and about winning on the road. Arizona defense has been better at home but Miami and Buffalo are no Dallas. Statistical edge goes to Dallas.

GB/SEA
Seattle's offensive problems are well documented. M.Hasselbeck might not even play in this game. But does it really matter ? Since their passing game has been very bad, going to S.Wallace might not be a bad thing after all (and Green Bay's passing defense is average at best).Seattle's rushing offense has been much better anyways, and especially at home. They should do well against a Green Bay defense that allows just over 5 YPC defensively. Seattle's passing defense is bad, but Green Bay is not doing well thru the air lately, with a banged up A.Rodgers. Not sure he will get back on track in the noisiest NFL stadium against a really desperate team. Statistical edge: Seattle.

NE/SD
Statistically, San Diego has the edge on the offense and New England has the edge on defense. SD is having a lot more success with their passing offense and passing defense and unfortunatelly for them, this is where New Englad is doing slightly better job. On the other side, New England is using their rushing offense more efficiently and that's where SD is weak on the defensive side of the ball. Overall, New Englad has a slight statistical edge but the home field advantage is what makes me think that there is no real edge for any team in this game.

 

[w365]

random info


new england has not been an underdog in a while (with the exception of their game vs the jets where they opened as underdog and ended up being favored). but you guys already know how i feel about -5 home favorites. especially with a high totals. i've explained that in the baltimore at pittsburgh writeup. 5 pts road dogs with the total in the 41-46 range are 23-4 ats in last 27.

green bay is 0-3 su/ats in last 3 as underdog with a total in the 40's including twice this season at tampa and vs dallas. seattle is 4-0 straight up as fave with total in 40's in last 4.

philladelphia is 0-5 su/ats in last 5 when favored by less than 7 with total in low 40's, including at chicago and vs washington this season. too bad, san francisco is 0-3 su/ats as dog with total in low 40's, including games vs nwe, no and ari this season.

chicago is 1-7 su and 1-8-1 ats lately when favored by less than 3.5 with total over 41. atlanta was a small home dog with a total over 40.5 only once in recent years and it happened this season vs detroit and they won outright. this is the highest total for atlanta this season, with the closest two being 41 vs detroit and 40.5 vs gb. they won both games as small underdogs.

oakland is 0-13 su in last 13 as 5-10 pts underdog and 0-6 su, 0-5-1 ats if 5-10 underdog with total over 40. new orleans is 2-0 su since last season as -5 to -10 fave.

carolina is 0-5 su/ats in last 5 with line in the -1/+5 range and total 36-39 including their loss to minesota this season. tampa is 2-0 su/ats in last two as small fave with a low total. this is the lowest total for carolina this season and the closest ones have been vs chi and vs min 9barely beat chi at home and lost to min on the road).

in all of their last 8 losses (0-7-1 ats) stl has been a dog of more than 6 pts with total in the 41.5-48 range. washington is 3-0 su/ats as favorite with total over 40, including 2-0 this season.

cincinnati is 0-2 su this season as underdog with total in the 40's (covered both times) and the jets are 1-0 as faves with total in the 40's and that was their best game of the season (vs arizona).

all detroit's dog losses this season came with the total in the 40's. minny is rarely a fave with such a total and they won their only recent game in this spot last year.

miami did not p^lay with such a total in a while and houston is 4-0 su and 3-1 ats when favored with a total in the 40's, beating jacksonville, denver and new orleans last season.

baltimore is 4-1 su and 5-0 ats in last 5 when underdog of 3-6.5 with total in the 34-41.5 range including a covering overtime loss at pittsburgh this season. this is their highest total this season, the closest ones being 37.5 vs cincy and 37 vs cleveland, both games won by baltimore. the colts are 0-4 su and ats in last 4 at home with a total under 43 and when not favored by more than 5, including this years loss to jacksonville. this is also their lowest line this season, the closest one was against jacksonville.

jacksonville won their only dog game with the total in the 40's this season, at indianapolis. denver is 2-15 ats in last 17 with the total 42 or higher and 0-3 ats this season when favored with the total 42+ (against tb, new orleans and kc).

dallas is 3-0 su this season with total 42 or higher and 2-0 su/ats on the road. arizona is 0-2 su and ats as underdogs this season and 0-4 su/ats in last 4 as underdog with total 43+.

 

[w365]

my ratings vs vegas line

chicago is ranked 10 places better than atlanta and with their line of -3 they are in the same situation as the eagles when they lost at chicago and jacksonville when they lost in tenessee. with chicago getting 70% of moneyline action (according to my books) they are again in a group of teams with a losing record that includes chicago vs tb, denver vs tb, cincy vs cleveland.

new orleans is in the group of teams that usually win but don't cover the spread. that group is 6-1 su and 0-7 ats. with their perenial struggle vs lesser teams it wouldn't surprise me to see them winning but not covering.

carolina is in a group of teams that is 0-8 su and 0-7-1 ats ytd and they've already been in that group earlier this season when they lost at minnesota. when tampa bay hosted gb, gb was in that 0-8/0-7-1 group as well.

washington is in the same 6-1 su and 0-7 ats group as new orleans and it will really depend on how seriously they approach this game.

the jets are in a really good group straight up and about 50% ats. exactly what i expect from this game. ny win straight up and a 50% of covering the spread.

minnesota vs detroit: see wash vs stl and nwo vs oakland.

miami is in the same situation as carolina this week. as i've already said, that group is 0-8 su and 0-7-1 ats ytd.

the colts are in a group that is 5-5 su and 1-9 ats.

denver is in a group that is 1-8 ats ytd including their game vs new orleans.

dallas is in a group of teams that is good straight up 8-1 but 50% ats.

phi vs sf...50% in long run

green bay in the same spot as miami and carolina this week.

san diego is close to the situation where pittsburgh barely beat baltimore without covering the spread and jaxonville lost outright to buffalo.

 

[w365]

Let's get some more $ after another great week in college football

Plays:

Atlanta +3
Jacksonville +3.5
Tampa Bay -1
Seattle -1
New England +5


Leans:

SF +4.5
OAK +7
BAL +4
HOU -3


system of the week: home dogs of 3.5 pts or less after a close road dog win of 6 pts or less are 30-2 ats if they are not three games under .500 or worst. atlanta is a home dog of 3 pts, they won by 3 as road underdogs last week and they are 1 game over .500.

 

[MMfan]

Let's get some more $ after another great week in college football

Plays:

Atlanta +3
Jacksonville +3.5
Tampa Bay -1
Seattle -1
New England +5


Leans:

SF +4.5
OAK +7
BAL +4
HOU -3


system of the week: home dogs of 3.5 pts or less after a close road dog win of 6 pts or less are 30-2 ats if they are not three games under .500 or worst. atlanta is a home dog of 3 pts, they won by 3 as road underdogs last week and they are 1 game over .500.

I went with six of your college picks and won on 5 of them. Thank you! :money8:

 

[manchild]

You think it is even a good idea to play the Seahawks with a 90% chance that the 3rd string QB will play? This would be a pass I am sure you could find something better to play! Goodluck bro

 

[w365]

I went with six of your college picks and won on 5 of them. Thank you! :money8:

ope:

 

[w365]

You think it is even a good idea to play the Seahawks with a 90% chance that the 3rd string QB will play? This would be a pass I am sure you could find something better to play! Goodluck bro

when your starter is struggling, and hurt, and you can't win a game with him, does it really matter who's gonna start, no2 or no3. actually c.frye has had tons of preseason snaps and has been the part of the organisation long enough to understand the system and manage the game. seattle's season is on the line + revenge for last years playoffs blowout loss. at home they can beat anyone, even w/o hasselbeck. gl man!

 

[manchild]

when your starter is struggling, and hurt, and you can't win a game with him, does it really matter who's gonna start, no2 or no3. actually c.frye has had tons of preseason snaps and has been the part of the organisation long enough to understand the system and manage the game. seattle's season is on the line + revenge for last years playoffs blowout loss. at home they can beat anyone, even w/o hasselbeck. gl man!

:toast:

 

[w365]

upgrading sf and hou to official plays, detroit and stl to leans.
mnf will be posted monday morning. i wish ya tons of $ tomorrow.
good winnings


Atlanta +3
Jacksonville +3.5
Tampa Bay -1
Seattle -1
New England +5
San Francisco +4.5
Houston -3


Leans:


OAK +7
BAL +4
STL +14 *only after buying up to 14*
DET +14 *only after buying up to 14*

 

[W-EDGE]

Used your information in college football yesterday + my own capping and went 9-1. Just wanted to say thank you and good luck.

 

[METFAN]

I LIKE PHILLY OTHERWISE I THINK YOU SWEEP..GOOD LUCK AND THANKS FOR YOUR INSIGHTS:toast:

 

[powerz]

great job W365 - thanks for yesterday and BOL today.

Charlie fry was the best seattle QB in preseason.

 

[w365]

as i said last week in my mnf column,teams that have 60+ % of bets on them and they cover are only 3-11-1 ats in the next week so far this season. and the dogs that had 60+ or more on their opponents last week, and lost ats are a very good proposition in the following week...but as always, you have to chose the best ones outhere...here are some that i'm looking at this week to see if this trend continue...

chicago was a big public fave last week, covered with ease against the worst team in football, and now they even more of a public team laying less than what they did last week, but this time against a team that is actually playing well and happy about their season. i'd say atlanta is in good shape here.

seattle lost big su and ats to the giants last week as a very unpopular dog and now they are favored and they are a very unpopular fave with just under 40% of bets on them. with this being their most important game of the season, seattle will probably give their 110% in front of their loyal home crowd. they are not favored for nothing with their 3rd string qb.

san fran was an unpopular home dog last week, lost against the spread, and now they are the most unpopular dog, by far this week, against another struggling team without its best player.instead of getting less support with their struggles, the eagles are getting more and more public team which is kinda odd. the public is waiting for them to win because they are 'due'. san fran could really win this one outright.

houston was a very unpopular dog last week, failed to cover despite having the game in the bag and now they are laying 3 pts, as a very unpopular fave against a team that shocked the world two weeks in a row. vegas is not buying into miami sucess because san diego and new england are not as good as advertised. if you are houston and you lose the way you lost two weeks in a row now, how'd you react. my guess is they will play their asses off in front of their home crowd because they have a lot to prove.

 

[Oak3]

Amazing amount of info in your threads, thank you.

Just wondering what do you think is your best sport ?

 

[VenomousSanction]

GL 365.. like tha info mang

 

[krh7]

great job W365 - thanks for yesterday and BOL today.

Charlie fry was the best seattle QB in preseason.

5-4 yesterday.

 

[Jumpman23]

5-4 yesterday.

5-3-1 :toast:

Thanks for all the info, man. Let's make that :money8: