Week 6: One Early, More Tomorrow

[ofred]

11-8-2 on large plays.
YTD: 25-31, -4.55 units.

2* ECU +11.5 Temple has been very fortunate the last 3-5 years with getting some pretty good talent. More than 20 players were drafted or signed by the NFL. However, they really haven't recruited all that well, and there is a noticeable difference this season from recent Temple teams. I think this game represents a possible evening out of ECU and Temple in the level of competitiveness. ECU made a great hire in former James Madison Coach, Mike Houston. He is changing the losing culture of the last few years, and even though they have 3 wins vs. weaker teams(though the ODU win on the road last week was impressive), they are 3-2, and have to believe they can win this game at home. They will be in their all-black uniforms for a televised night game.

Temple really misses Ryquell Armstead and some of their defensive studs of the last 2 years. I am not big fan of QB Anthony Russo. He throws wounded ducks, no longer has the great run game, and can turn the ball over. ECU's QB, Holton Ahlers, was a running sensation last year, but is still developing as a passer. I got a feeling Houston and his OC allow him to run more this game in this important conference game. And though Navy gouged the ECU defense, ODU only ran for 2.1 ypc. I think Temple's offense is a little anemic as seen in their games vs. Buffalo, Ga. Tech and even Maryland. They shouldn't be double digit faves on the road in conference games.

 

[indiana]

Fred.......getting close to being profitable buddy.....stay after them.....look forward to your card.......indy

 

[Kysps2020]

temple O may lean towards the anemic side as you mentioned but their D this year has been for real... however mostly at home... if i play it im on temple or im not playing at all.... kind of like the under more than anything.

 

[ofred]

temple O may lean towards the anemic side as you mentioned but their D this year has been for real... however mostly at home... if i play it im on temple or im not playing at all.... kind of like the under more than anything.

You were correct about Temple's D, and I was lucky to get the backdoor cover. However, ECU played a very spirited game, holding Temple's offense in check most of the night.

 

[ofred]

.5 UConn +11.5 We all know how bad UConn is, but I like how they have played 60 minutes each and every game, getting the backdoor cover last week, and playing Illinois tight. USF just seems like a team that could care less, and a trip to UConn isn't going to motivate them much. USF will likely win, but UConn will play this home game to win and hang around until the end. Charlie Strong's team was embarrassed by SMU at hem last week, and I have a feeling disgruntlement among the players is seeping in.

3* Army +3 (-130) Have liked this game since Monday, and am feeling stupid waiting and paying the extra juice to get the 3. Tulane will have a hard time winning on the road here as Army has historically been very tough at home. Also, Army could/maybe shoulda won that Michigan game. In what I saw, they seemed almost at Michigan's level on both sides of the ball. They aren't, but just think if they had won, how Army would be 3 point favorites or better Saturday. Tulane gets the nod as a favorite base don their Auburn game, but they got absolutely gouged on the ground vs. Houston. Army will do the same.

 

[ofred]

3* Iowa St. -3 (-130)
2* Iowa St. -3.5 I hate to play the 3 here at extra juice, but feel it would be unwise not to. I think Iowa State can cover this 3.5 with room to spare. A large part of this play is that TCU is just not even remotely what they used to be. The QBs may have beaten up on Kansas, but really the QB play has been poor going on 2 years now. Defense may have been Gary Patterson's forte, but now they are below average by Big 12 standards. Patterson just seems almost too frustrated with the play of his team, and the pressure might make them play worse. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell stayed at Iowa State, and seems to get the most of his players. Yes, they have had some tough losses. I watched the Iowa loss, and thought ISU was the better team. But Campbell will rally his players as he has done in the past couple of years to play well each and every week. No letdown. Iowa St. at home and their bad luck evens out for a 10+ point win.

3* UCLA -6 The Bruins and Beavers are both a mess. The Beavers were shown this week, by press reports, to spend(by far) the least on their football program of any PAC 12 team. They lost a heartbreaker at home to Stanford. UCLA lost to Arizona on the road last week in which they should have won with Khalil Tate not playing for UA. However, this just feels like a must win for a UCLA team that might actually perform better with their backup QB playing rather than the erratic DRT. Both have horrible defenses, but the Beavers is probably worse due to their complete lack of athleticism in the front 7, poor tackling, and just don't have any depth there. The Beavers have a good running game, but an overrated passing game that can be contained. OSU QB Jake Luton is very immobile, and focuses on 1 receiver, Isaiah Hodgins. Last season, UCLA started poorly, but came around mid-season to upset some PAC teams, and played much better. They need a win here, and if they hold back the OSU running game a bit, they win by double digits.

 

[ofred]

Did some past research on these two, and found out that if a team is considered one of the elite top 4-5 teams, they can and do win some blowouts on the road. And they often do it 1st half like Ohio State did to Nebraska last week. Also, it is more likely to happen mid-season than late season. The opponent matters a lot too, but Tennessee and Kansas fit the bill. Weak offense, mediocre QB play, OL issues, etc. I will monitor these for a 2H play if the 1st half is closer than expected.

2.5* Oklahoma -20 (-120) 1H Oklahoma suspended their kicker, Kansas lost their top RB, KHlail Herbert, he of 8.9 ypc. I'll take that trade-off any day. Jalen Hurts is showing that his passing is finally coming around. That and his ability to take off for a huge gain at any time, make him very dangerous. It's almost like the defenses have to semi-forget the rest of the skill players(especially the RBs) and keep an eye on Hurts. Kansas' win at BC, I'm wagering, was an outlier that won't be repeated. Lots of apathy with Kansas fans helps, along with Sooner fans showing up en masse.


2.5 * Georgia -14 (-120) I really like to take elite teams after a close game. The Vols don't have Ian Book, who was able to keep his team in the game for a few scores. Otherwise, Georgia, would have won easily. The Georgia OL might be one of the best, and their young WRs have dispelled the notion that they would suffer greatly from the loss of the graduated WRs. Key here is that Tennessee has about the worst kind of offense to go against this Georgia D. A fairly stationary QB, maybe a new QB, and a running game that doesn't get much push from the OL. In my observations, Georgia is also one of the best pursuit and tackling teams in the nation. Better than Alabama, maybe better than Clemson. Both teams off a bye, and Tennessee apathy is also a factor. Phillip Fulmer was even asked if he would coach Tenn. again, and that will be a topic around the team.

 

[Travex]

Georgia is -24.5, did you mean -24 or is that a 1H bet?

 

[ofred]

Did some past research on these two, and found out that if a team is considered one of the elite top 4-5 teams, they can and do win some blowouts on the road. And they often do it 1st half like Ohio State did to Nebraska last week. Also, it is more likely to happen mid-season than late season. The opponent matters a lot too, but Tennessee and Kansas fit the bill. Weak offense, mediocre QB play, OL issues, etc. I will monitor these for a 2H play if the 1st half is closer than expected.

2.5* Oklahoma -20 (-120) 1H Oklahoma suspended their kicker, Kansas lost their top RB, KHlail Herbert, he of 8.9 ypc. I'll take that trade-off any day. Jalen Hurts is showing that his passing is finally coming around. That and his ability to take off for a huge gain at any time, make him very dangerous. It's almost like the defenses have to semi-forget the rest of the skill players(especially the RBs) and keep an eye on Hurts. Kansas' win at BC, I'm wagering, was an outlier that won't be repeated. Lots of apathy with Kansas fans helps, along with Sooner fans showing up en masse.


2.5 * Georgia -14 (-120) I really like to take elite teams after a close game. The Vols don't have Ian Book, who was able to keep his team in the game for a few scores. Otherwise, Georgia, would have won easily. The Georgia OL might be one of the best, and their young WRs have dispelled the notion that they would suffer greatly from the loss of the graduated WRs. Key here is that Tennessee has about the worst kind of offense to go against this Georgia D. A fairly stationary QB, maybe a new QB, and a running game that doesn't get much push from the OL. In my observations, Georgia is also one of the best pursuit and tackling teams in the nation. Better than Alabama, maybe better than Clemson. Both teams off a bye, and Tennessee apathy is also a factor. Phillip Fulmer was even asked if he would coach Tenn. again, and that will be a topic around the team.

Yes, this is
1H.

 

[ofred]

3* SMU/ Tulsa- over 63.5 A battle between former QBs of Texas and Baylor. But…they lost their QB spot to Charlie Brewer and Sam Ehlinger, two pretty talented guys. And Tulsa has finally unleashed their offense. Zach Smith has thrown 80 passes in his last two games for almost 600 yards. This is a huge upgrade for the Tulsa offense, which has always been a run heavy team. I like the balance of their offense now, and the increased passing will slow down the clock a bit. SMU, with Shane Buechele, has also broken out with an even more explosive offense. Both of these teams have some quick, fast skill players on offense that will give the defenses trouble. Tulsa also a fairly weak run defense, and can get pushed around on the DL. SMU's defense is mostly a bend, sometimes break defense. Tulsa is not a bad underdog here with the points, but I think this game smells of an offensive shootout more. If SMU goes off for 45+, Tulsa could fail to cover.

 

[ofred]

1* 8.5 point teaser (+242)

Oregon -11.5 Like the Ducks here, but the 20 pt. spread is ridiculous vs. a good D.
Washington/ Stanford- under 60 Will likely have a straight play on the 52 total
Army +11 This will be a close game, no matter who wins. Army at home +11 is a nice take.
Notre Dame -38 Worst defense in FBS might be BGU. ND backups will keep the game a blowout.
Michigan St. +28.5 MSU not a bad take at +20. Ohio St. is freaking great, but this will be the 1st great D they'll face.

 

[ofred]

1* Air Force -3 (-120) Navy is improved this season, but Air Force looks to me like the cream of the service academies. They have a much better D than Navy, and though Navy is passing more this year, Air Force's passing game is better. Air Force should have covered both their Boise and San Jose games. Luck evens out here.

1* Maryland/ Rutgers- under 55.5 Neither team has much of a defense, but the OLs are putrid, and with Artur Sitkowski sitting for Rutgers, their freshman QB(who was 3rd string) will be protected by a conservative game plan. The 4th stringer is the last QB on the roster, and totally unprepared. Rutgers fired their coach last week, and usually teams play inspired their first game afterwards. However, that will have to be on the defensive side, which is probably Rutgers' better unit. The offense had some oomph when Sitkowski was playing vs. a weaker D, but now they haven't got much going in the big play dept. They are at home, and with Maryland's passing issues, they will also run often- burning clock.

 

[ofred]

.5 Iowa +4 Michigan was punked by Wisconsin, and it wasn't even close. Rutgers win means almost nothing, so they need to prove it here- I say Iowa keeps it close or pulls the outright upset.

.5 Buffalo +3.5 So much love preseason for Ohio and their QB. They have not lived up to the hype. Buffalo at home, and while they are another MAC weakling, they play inspired more so in these home games.

.5 UW/ Stanford- under 51.5 Stanford will score a little, but their drives are big time suckers. UW has another great secondary, and the Trees will have to slog down the field w/o KJ Costello's passing. Huskies are a solid team across the board, but they also work the ball down the field, and can use lots of clock. Stanford is playing for their season at home and might give a good effort on D.

.5 LSU/ Utah St.- over 73 Lots of folks like USU or the over, but the over looks more likely. LSU can score in the 50s or in low 60s, USU a couple along the way and more in garbage time.

.5 ULM +15 A team that can score at home for a non-conference game. ULM has got to play some defense here, or Memphis will slowly pull away.

.5 Florida/ Auburn- under 48.5 Would like to play this some for more, but these SEC games can have a life of their own even when the defenses are great. Two young QBs, two awesome Ds. May play it for a 1* tomorrow.

.5 Oklahoma -33 Kansas will greatly miss Herbert, and Oklahoma has a respectable defense finally. Kansas has no depth so the game bet looks good. I can't see a back door cover.

 

[Skeeter123]

O fred, good luck today bud. Always appreciate the insight!

:toast: