Week 6 ncaa plays........we can share the winners........

[JackStraw420]

....we can share the WHINE.

Went 3-4 last week on my posted plays. Down 1.4 units. Not horrible, but certainly far from great.

Locking in a few plays now, as I like the lines and want to get them in, as they'll probably not move in my favor.

Utah -7 (Haven't seen too much of Cal so far, but while 5-0 is fairly impressive for any team at this point, squeaking by Wazzu, Wash and Texas isn't exactly a glowing resume. Meanwhile Utah is just playing some solid football and should be able to move the ball, and do enough on D to keep this one out of reach) 2 UNIT PLAY

Washington State - Oregon OV 70 (Oregon's D is not that great and gives up yardage through the air. WSU should attack, as they usually do, but WSU is never a defensive juggernaut, and UO should still get their points. Wouldn't shock me to see a 55-40 kind of game. I think total may rise, so jumped now) 2 UNIT PLAY

Patriots -7.5/-9 (Like this spot for Pats. Coming off of a bye, headed into Dallas who is very banged up, and frankly, not an elite team at full strength. Been tracking road faves coming off of a bye for years now, and it's been a solid play ATS. I don't blindly play it, but if I like the spot, I take it and don't think twice. Pats are an elite team who many times show little/no mercy when spanking their opponents. Simple as that) 1 unit on each spread played.


Here are some more NCAA leans that I am trying to narrow down some, and watch the lines to see if i can snag a few more points.

Houston TT OV 49.5 (line is not out yet, but will likely hit it at this total, or lower. SMU is improved, but still bad, and Ward Jr. and Houston are rolling right now. 25+ points is too many for me to lay though, and do not trust SMU to chip in enough for game total.

VaTech pk'em (not sold on NC State being good enough to win a tough road game, in tough environment. They won 4 soft games and then lost at home to a so-so Louisville team. Va Tech scares me a little, but at home in pick'em game, I think they are talented enough to win this game more times than not)

CMU +7.5 (Hate these MAC games, might pass. Will only consider if line stays above 7. Need to look deeper here, haven't seen much from either team so far)

Baylor TT OV 56.5 (same as Houston above. They'll get there I think, but laying 44 is a stretch.)

Tulane +16 (I think they are good enough to stay within 2 TD's of Temple)

Wake-BC UN 36.5 (was hoping for 40, got this instead. Wake did a decent job of containing FSU some, and BC's D is legit.)

Navy +14.5 (ND coming back home after hard fought/tough game, and loss. Navy is competent on offense and usually gets up for this match up.)

App State -16.5 (Ga State is really, really, really, bad, and App State should be able to put up a big number.)

Oregon State +10 (line is down to 8.5 now I think, might pass there. Arizona hasn't shown much this year, this could be a close one)

Mizzou +5.5 (Florida shocked everyone last week by trouncing Ole Miss. Meanwhile Mizzou didn't skip a beat with the Mauk suspension. I might throw this home dog in the mix and hope for a UF letdown.)

KState +9.5 (hoping this line climbs up a little more. TCU spanked UT, big deal. UT is a mess. KST D will be tougher than that, at home and I think they stay within single digits.)


BOL all..............any feedback, comments, criticisms, etc....all welcome.

:smoking:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gjjkcVIoys

 

[mws]

Good luck - I agree with most of those.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

JackStraw420


I don’t think Mizzou has a shot, I think they lose by 14 points, they have only played some really bad teams ARKST (first game of the year I don’t put a lot of stock in but they won by a TD) UCONN (is really bad this year, shitty defense and they score 9 points) SC (Has no talent any more, maybe just bad recruiting and they started a freshman last week QB)



On the other side the Gators have skill position individuals that are going to be playing in the NFL someday. I’m happy Drew Lock did well last week, because he will be on the IR Sunday after he is sacked 10 times on Saturday. Drew lock has never seen a pass rush like the Gators , SC was not a good tune up for what will come at him this week, I know he was a 4 star prospect, but having Maty Mauk as a teacher I don’t think he has learned enough to face a team as fast as Florida on defense. If he get lucky and throws 2 TD he will also throw 2 picks or a pick and a fumble that Florida will capitalize. Al least 2-3 turnovers plus Florida’s’ offence will guarantee a cover. I hit this line 3 hours after it hit my book. I think it goes to -7.

 

[Addicted2quack]

I like The plays, on most of those myself.... Just looked at the Oregon wazoo total... I'm hammering that over... Can't see either team scoring less than 30 in this game... If the line ever drops to Oregon -14 I'll take my chances on a small side play as well

 

[TheShotDoctor]

I like that Oregon/Wash St Over 70 As Well, Probably My Favorite OVER Of The Week!
But "Addicted 2 Quack".........
I Hope Each Team Scores More Than 30, or Atleast 1 Of Them, Way More!
30-30 Wouldn't Get Us There!

Good Luck
-ShotDoc-

 

[bigtease]

love the Utah play Utah has a good D They will slow down Cal and win by dd

 

[JackStraw420]

JackStraw420


I don’t think Mizzou has a shot, I think they lose by 14 points, they have only played some really bad teams ARKST (first game of the year I don’t put a lot of stock in but they won by a TD) UCONN (is really bad this year, shitty defense and they score 9 points) SC (Has no talent any more, maybe just bad recruiting and they started a freshman last week QB)



On the other side the Gators have skill position individuals that are going to be playing in the NFL someday. I’m happy Drew Lock did well last week, because he will be on the IR Sunday after he is sacked 10 times on Saturday. Drew lock has never seen a pass rush like the Gators , SC was not a good tune up for what will come at him this week, I know he was a 4 star prospect, but having Maty Mauk as a teacher I don’t think he has learned enough to face a team as fast as Florida on defense. If he get lucky and throws 2 TD he will also throw 2 picks or a pick and a fumble that Florida will capitalize. Al least 2-3 turnovers plus Florida’s’ offence will guarantee a cover. I hit this line 3 hours after it hit my book. I think it goes to -7.

Thanks for the feedback. I actually read some of your comments on a different thread. Frosh QB going against solid D, could be trouble for Mizzou. And you are right, beating SC is not a great win. I am going to pass on that one, appreciate the info.

Also throwing out K-State with their QB issues.

Thanks for the feedback guys. Still looking over the rest of the leans and watching the lines.

:smoking:

 

[mudman]

BOL this week!!

 

[JackStraw420]

OK, adding Houston TT OV 48.5 as an official play.


HOUSTON TT OV 48.5 (-125) 2 UNITS

As stated above. SMU is improved, but it would be difficult for them to do anything BUT improve. They are still bad. Given up 48+ points in every game this year except one, and that was vs. North Texas who is arguably the worst FBS team around this year. Houston has more than enough fire power on offense to reach this number. I like this play more than just taking the over, because I do not trust SMU to chip in enough to get there. I also hesitate to lay that many points on Houston, as it seems SMU's improvements have mostly come on the offensive side, as they have scored some points this year.

Just sticking with this for tonight's game. It wouldn't shock me to see UW stay within the number vs. USC, but staying away from that one, and the NFL game is garbage.

BOL everyone..........................:smoking:

 

[United]

Good luck and like some of then plays.

 

[JackStraw420]

Thanks United.

Officially adding the following plays. All these are 1 unit plays.

Tulane +16

Appalachian State -15.5

Navy +14.5

That's it for now.

:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

OK, got the weekend off on a winning note. Houston got just enough points for the win, however despite the close win, they did hit with still over 7 minutes left in the 4th, so it wasn't a complete sweat. SMU offense played pretty well for a while, but Houston was just a little too much. Moving on.............

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...etting-odds-week-6-2015-ohio-state-notre-dame

Just wanted to share this guys picks, he's doing well this year. I don't usually share others picks, and not exactly endorsing him, but when someone is running good, can't hurt to share their point of view on games. Might open your eyes to something you didn't see. Personally, I like to make all my picks and leans BEFORE ever setting eyes on someone else's opinion. If I'm unsure on a lean, I might poke around some then.

Anyway, just thought I'd share. For now, no plays for Friday night. Still looking at Va Tech, might make a small play on them.

:smoking:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PekdeINQco (your Friday Dead Song Selection................enjoy!)

 

[ThaDude]

I love Navy. Played them every week so far. But I think they get trounced this week. They won't be able to move the ball against that Irish defense. An absolutely huge step up for Navy in the class of athlete this week.

 

[JackStraw420]

I love Navy. Played them every week so far. But I think they get trounced this week. They won't be able to move the ball against that Irish defense. An absolutely huge step up for Navy in the class of athlete this week.

I haven't been over-impressed with Irish D so far. I think Navy puts up enough points to stay within the number, although in the end it might be really close. I'm not huge on putting too much weight on let-downs or sandwich games, but this isn't a great spot for ND there either, coming off a really tough loss and having USC on deck. I think it's important to consider, but it's not the end-all-be-all of picking a winner. Definitely seeing some trusted opinions on ND though, so we shall see. My bet is in on it, so no looking back now. ; ) If ND comes out and blows them out of the water (pun intended), then so be it. Won't be the first time I've been dead wrong on a game, that's for sure!

Thanks for the feedback though, it's appreciated. I agreed with your insight on that SMU game last night too.

 

[Incubus]

I love Navy. Played them every week so far. But I think they get trounced this week. They won't be able to move the ball against that Irish defense. An absolutely huge step up for Navy in the class of athlete this week.

+1

I concur. The "popular" pick here is Navy +14, but I also think Notre Dame will hammer these guys. If you watched the Georgia Tech - ND game several weeks ago, it was abundantly clear ND spent quite a bit of time practicing on defending the option. At one point in that game, ND led GA Tech 30-7 before giving up 2 TDs in the last minute. Also, there's the overlooked fact of strength of schedule. ND has taken on the 6th toughest schedule so far, while the Midshipmen have taken the 109th toughest.

Once ND gets a lead and starts stuffing Navy's running attack, I don't think they (Navy) are equipped with an adequate PASSING GAME to dig themselves out of the hole.

Also, the Irish will NOT be looking ahead to USC. They've seen just what happened to the Trojans when they slept walk with Washington.

I believe Brian Kelly will have his team FOCUSED and MOTIVATED for this game to atone for their Clemson loss.

Like "ThaDude" states, this is a HUGE step up in talent for Navy to face.

This game has BEATDOWN written all over it, and I predict Notre Dame wins handily by 20+ points. !/

 

[JackStraw420]

I don't see any reason why Kelly wouldn't have them focused and motivated every single week, that doesn't always translate into covers though. I'm not saying they are over-looking Navy here, or looking ahead too much. They play a tough schedule every year. But as spots go during the season, this isn't the best one for ND.

I think Navy's ability to come back and score has improved over the years. Last season they were down 28-7 and fought back to even take the lead 31-28 in the 2H, which turned into a real battle that ND eventually won (but did not cover, similar spread too). Of course, they did most of that on the ground, as per usual. ND is definitely better than last year too, from what I have seen. If ND can really shut down the Navy option, then it will be a long day for Navy. Can't argue with that.

Bottom line is, it's a 14 point spread for a reason. I don't disagree with much of what you guys are saying, I guess I just see it ending a different way.

BOL..................:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

Added a few more. Passed on the Baylor TT, which was OV 60.5 (-125). Just a tad too high/juice for me. Went with the BC-Wake UNDER and added a unit on App State, also played Oregon State at +9.5, although I was really hoping for 10. Might add one unit later if it moves up.

Here is full card. All 2 unit plays will be noted, rest are 1 unit.

Houston TT OV 48.5 (-125) (2 units) -- WIN (Thu)

Utah -7 (2 units)

Wash State - Oregon OV 70 (2 units)

Tulane +16

App State -15.5 and -14.0 (1 unit on each line)

Navy +14.5

Wake - BC UN 35.5


That's going to do it for me. BOL everyone..................................:smoking:

 

[JackStraw420]

Just a quick recap of last weekend. Ended up coming out ahead. Utah covering would have made for a great weekend, but Cal hung in there and Utes came up short.

Went 3-1 on NCAA 2 unit plays, and also hit my NFL 2 unit play. I don't post many NFL, so just keeping track of it here. Got a bit fortunate in that Oregon-Wazzu game that WSU was able to tie it up late and send it to OT. I'll take the lucky ones, and I bookmark those games in my mind so that when it goes the other way I don't have a pity party about it. Still thought there'd be more scoring. Oregon is pretty exposed either way, and might still be decent value fading them in the right spot. We shall see. Houston TT was a winner on Thursday, fairly easy, but ended up only getting enough by the hook. They are a quiet good team for a mid-major kind of league. App State was an easy winner, and glad I doubled down when the line moved in favor. Georgia State is bad. Also hit the Pats on Sunday for 2 units, so 4-1 on 2 unit plays total this weekend in NCAA/NFL combined. Dallas offense is a mess, and despite their D putting up a solid effort, they were just out there too much and the Pats just kept attacking and putting up points. The Road Bye Week Fave system hits in it's first try this season. I'll post more about that when/if it comes up again.

1 unit plays went 1-2. Navy losing Reynolds hurt their chances to cover. They may not have even with him, but obviously losing your senior leader at QB isn't usually a good thing. They still almost kept it within the number, and ND's D again did not impress me. But a loss is a loss. Tulane was by far my worst pick on the weekend. They are a bad football team and it was amazing how bad their O-Line play was. Temple's D line was in their backfield all game (well, at least all 1H, as I pretty much stopped watching). Definitely make a note if Tulane plays anyone with a stout D-Line for future reference. I actually took Temple 2H in this one as sort of a hedge, that's how obvious it was that Tulane was toast. Their only 10 points came directly off of Temple turnovers. I did not post that 2H wager, so won't count it in of course. And truth be told, I also took Iowa 2H, which lost, so those evened out anyway. The BC-Wake under was probably the easiest under I have ever played. 3-0 final. Doesn't get much lower than that. Even if it went to OT, it may have taken 10 OT's to put it over!!

The leans I left on the table went 4-2. I threw KSU out because of their QB issues, and they damn near won. Glad I took Mizzou out, thanks for the advice above on that one. Oregon State got trounced. Va Tech won, CMU covered, Baylor TT was an easy winner. Always good to see that even on games I don't play, that my reads are right, more than wrong. No regrets on not playing them though.

Thanks everyone for the feedback and comments. Hoping to keep posting here as I like a good board with a lot of back and forth, and not too much bullshit and drama. Haven't even looked at next week's card yet. We'll probably get on that tomorrow. That's my usual routine.

WEEK 6
NCAA 2 UNIT 3-1 (+3.8 UNITS)
NCAA 1 UNIT 1-2 (-1.2 UNITS)
NFL 2 UNIT 1-0 (+2.0 UNITS)

YTD (on posted plays on THIS forum)
NCAA 7-7 (+1.2 UNITS)
NFL 1-0 (+2.0 UNITS)

:smoking: