Week 5

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Back in the black. Hit both 3s*, both 2.5* weekday games, and both Oregon plays. Otherwise, lost two last minute plays with Toledo and Tenn.

YTD: 34-23, +12.14 units. Even the NFL plays hit. Leans: 7-10. FCS: 3-3

1* Utah State +24.5
Maybe part of this play is watching BYU get dominated by Oregon. Oregon is pretty good by PAC 12 standards, but will be lucky to be nationally ranked above 12 at the end of the year. BYU looked slow defensively. BYU also has Notre Dame and Arkansas on deck. They have a boatload of injuries coming out of their Wyoming game. So this one has backdoor possibilities. Utah State has sucked, no doubt. Losing to Weber St. and then turning the ball over 6 times to UNLV last week. Utah State went 11-3 in 2021, beating Oregon St, WSU, Air Force and crushing SD State in the Mt. West championship. I realize they have turnover on their roster, but there is the same QB, the same offense, the same coaches, and a return of enough players to be at least competitive. They only have 1 loss in their conference, and they don't seem overly discouraged. If Bonner throws another bunch of ints, then yes, BYU romps. But BYU might just want a win here without any more key injuries.
 

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Hopefully, BYU will be satisfied with a W, and not run up the score, and keep further injuries in check. Agree could be a look-ahead game with Notre Dame on deck. I am betting at the very least a back door cover late and with you on Utah St.
 

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Hopefully, BYU will be satisfied with a W, and not run up the score, and keep further injuries in check. Agree could be a look-ahead game with Notre Dame on deck. I am betting at the very least a back door cover late and with you on Utah St.
Short week, lengthy injury report for BYU. However, have to hope Utah State doesn't commit a rash of turnovers.

1.2* Washington -3 The Huskies have played a couple of decent teams in Stanford and Michigan State. UCLA has played 3 teams with crap offenses, and then South Alabama- who nearly beat them. Zach Charbonnet is key for UCLA, but UW has defended the run well. Playing poor offensive teams might mean that UCLA's defense hasn't been exposed. They gave up 31 points and 400 yards to SA, so unless the Huskies come in totally flat, they should do well here offensively. I also expect that UCLA will have their moments offensively, but DRT is a little loose with the ball at times. Part of this play is that Michael Penix has looked better than good, and has been sacked 0 times. Accuracy has been excellent overall.

1* Tulane +3 Houston has a little too much hype for Clayton Tune, the Houston offense and Sack Avenue. Tune has been fine, but he has been sacked and pressured quite a bit. The Houston defense has been terrible overall. The DL, known as Sack Avenue, might exert some pressure, but opponents have had their way with the Houston D. Rice included. The Cougs get penalized a lot, make stupid decisions at times, and HC Holgorsen said that his team did a lot of stupid things and that's on them- not him. Something tells me the culture on the Houston team is not too healthy right now. Tulane lost their 1st game last week in a game they should have won by 10 points or more. USM had on drive of 70 yards, with a long pass TD- but otherwise they scored on a pick 6, and a few really short drives. Tulane has an experienced team and is well-coached. QB Pratt probably runs too often, but he's a gamer, and if he avoids turnovers, can shine here. The measly +3 on the road vs. a hyped team tells me Tulane might be the play.
 

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Fred.......well done last week buddy, thank you....
continued success with your week 5 action......indy
 

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Thanks Indy. GL to you.

4* Michigan -10 (-120) A large part of this play is that this Iowa offense is perhaps their worst in 20 years, and they've had some bad ones going back that far. They don't have the stud RB of the past years, nor the OL to protect their QB. I really think Michigan's defense will be a factor in how much they score...turnovers(Iowa has to pass sometimes), short fields, and maybe desperation penalties. Playing against a hopeless offense, even with Iowa at home and with their past reputation, is a must bet when you can see that Michigan's offense is just as good as last season. McNamara was a better passer, but McCarthy is much more mobile and improved as a passer. Iowa might blitz often and McCarthy's escapibility could really help extend passing plays.

Iowa's rep as a great defensive team is also called into question. They have two outstanding LBs, but with injuries, the rest of the D is vulnerable. Iowa is missing a few key defenders and depth will be an issue. Iowa hasn't faced an offense that is even close to UM's. The Rutgers QB put up 300 passing yards on them, and that score would have been closer if not for two defensive TDs. I also think Michigan crossed a threshold last year by beating Ohio State and crushing Iowa in the title game. They are no longer as predictable, and the defense while young, should continue to improve. Also, don't put too much stock in their close game with Maryland. They held MD to about 300 yards until a late 4th qtr. TD drive. And Michigan needed that game to "wake up" from playing early cupcakes.

3.5* Oklahoma State +2 Give Mike Gundy an extra week to prepare, and it's almost like a bowl game. And Gundy's success in bowl games is pretty damn good. I also think Baylor is coming off a physical win vs. a weaker Iowa State team, a team that lost a lot of talent. Baylor and OSU both lost some key players to graduation, transfers, etc. But I think Baylor's losses were worse. Lots of playmakers and defensive guys. They also caught a break vs. BYU, who was missing their two best WRs. Oklahoma State hasn't faced much competition so far, but I also think they have been holding back their playbook, defensively and offensively, for this game. Also not sold on Baylor QB Blake Shapen. He played well last week, but otherwise has been mediocre. His mobility is decent, but he's not really a good running threat.
 

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3.5* Oklahoma State +2 Give Mike Gundy an extra week to prepare
nice angle. I've got him at 36-14 SU with 29-17-4 ATS with extra rest and really strong 13-1 SU / 12-1-1 ATS when Okie State is unbeaten and playing another FBS team with extra rest.

SU:13-1-0 (23.50, 92.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:12-1-1 (7.54, 92.3%) avg line: -16.0+6: 13-1-0 (92.9%) -6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) +10: 13-1-0 (92.9%) -10: 7-6-1 (53.8%)
O/U:8-6-0 (4.25, 57.1%) avg total: 63.2+6: 7-7-0 (50.0%) -6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) +10: 5-8-1 (38.5%) -10: 12-2-0 (85.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.1176.738.4347.124.91.512.613.312.17.545.5
Opp35.6129.638.5236.921.42.54.67.35.14.922.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Oct 01, 2022Saturday52022OKSTBAYaway2.056.5
 

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nice angle. I've got him at 36-14 SU with 29-17-4 ATS with extra rest and really strong 13-1 SU / 12-1-1 ATS when Okie State is unbeaten and playing another FBS team with extra rest.

SU:13-1-0 (23.50, 92.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:12-1-1 (7.54, 92.3%) avg line: -16.0+6: 13-1-0 (92.9%) -6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) +10: 13-1-0 (92.9%) -10: 7-6-1 (53.8%)
O/U:8-6-0 (4.25, 57.1%) avg total: 63.2+6: 7-7-0 (50.0%) -6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) +10: 5-8-1 (38.5%) -10: 12-2-0 (85.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.1176.738.4347.124.91.512.613.312.17.545.5
Opp35.6129.638.5236.921.42.54.67.35.14.922.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Oct 01, 2022Saturday52022OKSTBAYaway2.056.5
These stats include bowl games too?
 

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Last week had very little on 1st half plays. This week, I like these:

1.6 Georgia 1H -17 Taking Georgia off a poor performance is usually a good idea. Used to be the same for Alabama in past seasons (may be still true). Kent- non conference, stay healthy, show nothing, rest starters. South Carolina and Missouri- conference, the opposite. Don't like what Missouri is doing offensively- run or pass.

1.4* Army -5.5 1H Army is hard to prep for after Georgia State put everything into their CCU game. The CCU loss could be somewhat deflating to Ga. State and they might not come out of it until the 2nd half. Army will play their 1st half "Keep Away" offense. Hope Army gets the ball first.

1.4* Ohio State -24.5 Even after losing their two high NFL drafted WRs, is this OSU offense even better? I think so. Playing off that Rutgers- Iowa game last week. Rutgers is usually good for some turnovers, and easy scores. Also, the Rutgers defense is either overrated or untested. Iowa, Temple, Wagner and an awful BC offense playing their 1st game. Ohio State played with a pretty good Wisconsin D...what can they do vs. Rutgers? Ohio State defense playing better than 2021. Some of the young guys are going to be really good, or are there already.
 

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1.7* Arkansas +17 If you usually go by past trends, you can understand why some bettors think Iowa is a great take at home getting 10.5. Yet everything is different- different players, coaches, styles of play...everything. Like the Michigan play, I think the trends favoring Alabama here might not hold up. Past performances/ trends can't hold up indefinitely. I just think this Alabama team is not up to the level they have been at the past 8-10 years. The playmakers are not as great, the OL is good but not great, and all of those recent NFL draftees are gone- recently. Arkansas has the QB, the offense, the home field and last year's close contest, to hang in there for this game. Other than a tight Texas win, Bama hasn't played anybody. So, yes, it is hard to evaluate them based on their earlier 4 games, but Arkansas should be able to cover this number while believing they can win the game. Backdoor cover possible.
 

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Utah State done in by turnovers, but an ATS win nevertheless.

1.6* TCU +6 TCU has been through tough times in the last couple of years. With Patterson gone, though, I think they could start to booster their recruiting and become a factor in the conference. This season their offense is already looking much better than 2021. They have lots of speed and quickness on that side. Also, this Oklahoma contest is the first meaningful game they've had in a while. At home, and vs. an Oklahoma team that hasn't proven anything so far. Oklahoma's defense looks to be down a notch, they look more undisciplined, committing more penalties, and without Lincoln Riley, we still don't know if the offense will regress. All new everything, with coaches, many players, systems, etc. I give TCU a decent chance to win.

1.5* Utah/ Oregon State- under 54.5 Have had some bad luck and bad plays in totals. Still..I really have to believe that we will see a defensive type game here, with both OSU and Utah running the ball often. Both have lost their star TEs, and thus a good receiving option. Watching the Beavers play USC last week, I was shocked at how well they got in the backfield and how good their pass coverage was. Utah will have a hard time developing a consistent passing game. On the other side, the Beavs don't really have the passing game that can exploit this Utah D, especially at home. Chance Nolan is improved this season, but he's still average at best by PAC 12 standards. Too many poor decisions. OSU might cover, but the under looks like the safer bet.
 

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Utah St was fun to watch. On Michigan -10
GL and thanxs
 

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Two top 25 ranked teams facing off. The home team with LOWER ranking, 17-7 3-0 this year 7-0 last seven, Baylor, Fla st, and Mississippi.
 

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With you on TCU and agree they have a fair chance at winning outright. Patterson would recruit speed and put them all on defense. New coach is very offensive minded with open game plan that players love to play in. Should be a fun game to watch. GL!
 

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Two top 25 ranked teams facing off. The home team with LOWER ranking, 17-7 3-0 this year 7-0 last seven, Baylor, Fla st, and Mississippi.
Is this SU or ATS? Arkansas is also in that position against Bama.
 

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