Week 5: Small Friday, Big Saturday

[ofred]

Last week posted for the first time in a while, and got hammered on my totals. I think 4-7 overall. I'll address this later….

Tonight:

UConn +14.5. Okay, I know the perception is that UConn has no offense. Some truth there. But their QB Shirreffs is better, though, than what they've had there in the past. He's mobile and has a decent arm, along with enough poise to keep their offense from folding as in the past 2 years. UConn also has enough of a run game, and a pretty good defense to hang around here- possibly win or make BYU win late. UConn has 2 wins this year and that already matches last year's total. Losing to a very tough Navy team last week was expected, but I doubt they're hanging their heads.

BYU should shoot their schedule maker. 3 out of 4 brutal road games to start the year- all good teams. Add in Boise at home and you can see why they got killed by Michigan last week. Now they play on a short week with a tom of injuries. Their top 4 runners are all out- Jamaal Williams quit in summer, Taysom Hill gone, as is their top 2 RBs. They have defensive injuries too. I think they'll be happy with a win tonight, and to stay healthy since the easier part of their schedule is in the 2nd half. I also think their is a misconception that BYU has this very good D because they held UCLA to 24 points. Their defense was poor last year, graduated many starters, and now is banged up. I just think BYU is still somewhat exhausted from their very physical schedule.

Smaller play:
Temple -11 1H. Looks dry for the first half and a monsoon for the 2nd half. Temple is a much, much better team and off a bye. Charlotte in its first year in the FBS, and wasn't very good last year in the FCS. I don't see how they score on this Temple D, especially with their dreadful QB play.

 

[indiana]

Fred............new week............BOL with all your action this week end..........indy

 

[ofred]

In the Temple game I obviously got the weather wrong. Under was the play. Charlotte couldn't score in nice weather, and this is anything but. Could lose 1H by one point.

 

[PatsFanatic]

In the Temple game I obviously got the weather wrong. Under was the play. Charlotte couldn't score in nice weather, and this is anything but. Could lose 1H by one point.

I saw one dropped TD pass by Temple. I'm sure there were more.

 

[SerfCap]

Just wanted to say, good to see ya, fred. Always appreciate your write-ups. Hope life is treating you well....With ya on UCONN

 

[ofred]

Just wanted to say, good to see ya, fred. Always appreciate your write-ups. Hope life is treating you well....With ya on UCONN

Glad to be back. Trying to beat the spread is a great sport.

 

[ofred]

My totals bets of last week were going against the tendency of college offenses to beat college defenses. Offenses have evolved to become harder to defend with all of the spreads, hurry ups, no huddle, options, etc. while defenses have failed(for the most part) to keep up. Even with seemingly lackluster offenses, with mediocre QB play, offenses are able to score. So a really special defense is a rare thing in CFB. I think the best ones are likely Ohio St, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and maybe Clemson or LSU. Even perhaps Northwestern and Stanford belong in this group, and Alabama and Florida St. and Florida are always in the top 5 or so. Anyways, I do like a few teams this week thinking about how their defenses are good enough to defend the typical CFB offense, even a better than average CFB offense.

 

[ofred]

Ole Miss -7. Their D is not big, but very fast. They run to the ball very well. In the Alabama game you had to be impressed at how well they did this in the first 3Q on the road. Florida is only a 7 point dog here because their defense is also very good. BUT, I can't see them effectively stopping this Ole Miss offense the whole game. And I can see Ole Miss's D getting turnovers from a Florida offense that frankly is poor by SEC standards. Tennessee managed to blow the lead, as usual, but Florida seems living on borrowed time. Love this Ole Miss team for their complete game, for a defense that can match up to a Florida D. Ole Miss sleepwalked vs. Vandy looking forward to THIS game. The Gators are better than we'd expect, but I think this is where they come down to earth.

 

[ofred]

Oklahoma St -7 (-120) After years of mediocre recruiting, K ST. is finally out of miracles. They lost QB Waters and their receiving corps from last year, their running game and defense from the year before. Now they have a walk on QB, and a team that I don't think will compete in the Big 12 any longer. Oklahoma St. seems heading the opposite direction. They have good team speed on defense and 2 experienced QBs, and a receiving corps that is talented and experienced. The perception is that K ST. can play close to the pack in the Big 12, but I don't see it. Coach Snyder is a great coach, but his time to retire might be near at hand. I also am a big fan of Mike Gundy who continues to stay at Ok. St even though he could easily move to a bigger venue. I think Okla. St. plays well here at home vs. an overrated opponent.

 

[ofred]

Wash. St. + 17.5 Cal has Utah, UCLA and USC on the docket after this game. Wazzu is just an annoyance along the way. The Cougs have given Cal a tough time the past few years. Both teams have stellar offenses, weak defenses... although Cal has the edge here. Goff has gotten so much press that this line is likely slanted toward Cal. He is probably NFL ready, and Cal has played better this year, but Wazzu has also improved as this season has progressed. WSU has a chance to win this game, and 17.5 just seems very generous in a game where both teams are similar and Cal has all the behemoths coming up. Even if Cal gets a big lead, WSU will keep slinging it in the 4Q and get the back door cover. I'm just not convinced that Cal is deserving of this kind of spread yet.

 

[ofred]

Baylor/ Texas Tech- under 88.5. Got to play this number, especially considering Mahomes injury. Baylor has a decent defense and could limit TT even if Mahomes plays. Baylor might also run more considering TT's run defense and play conservative 2nd half with a pretty big lead. Any FGs or punts are a victory for the under. 88.5 is boatload of points.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........like the plays..........lov Miss..............BOL with your week end action.............indy

 

[ofred]

CMU +3. Northern Illinois doesn't have their usual offense, struggling to score in 3 of their 4 games. They don't have an explosive runner or much a passing attack. CMU has played some good competition, and have out-yarded everyone except the last quarter vs. Okla. St. Nice home spot for them with a pretty developed passing game and a respectable defense.

App. St/ Wyoming- under 52- Everyone wants to know how Joaquin will effect the games and which game will be the wettest. This one. Right about game time the field will have been poured on for many hours, then rain some more during the game; and the winds will pick about then too. Usually rain doesn't have much effect, but when it's this wet, everything slows down. Balls are hard to throw and catch. Anyways, Wyoming is dismal offensively. The rain will even dampen the attendance and enthusiasm a bit.

 

[sharky99]

Have a profitable weekend Fred, thanks for posting!!

 

[ofred]

Baylor/ Texas Tech- under 88.5. Got to play this number, especially considering Mahomes injury. Baylor has a decent defense and could limit TT even if Mahomes plays. Baylor might also run more considering TT's run defense and play conservative 2nd half with a pretty big lead. Any FGs or punts are a victory for the under. 88.5 is boatload of points.

A little more on this at 90. Baylor might win this big because they ACTUALLY play defense, and then run the ball, sucking time in the 2nd half.

 

[ofred]

Tenn. and Oregon are both coming off shockers, and it'll be interesting to see how they respond. I say they respond poorly knowing the psyche of college kids. Got small ones on Col. +7 and Ark. +6.5